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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Buffalo Bills by 7
Final margin New England Patriots by 3
Difference 10 points
New England Patriots covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
3,186 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (43.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin NE by 3
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Bill Vinovich Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 87.7 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Buffalo Bills · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New England Patriots · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Buffalo Bills chance to win during the game 144 preplay estimates across 172 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 28 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 3 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 08:21 Recorded game event
New England Patriots · Play 1405 (8:21) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 27 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by BUF-24-C.Bishop at NE 27. 24-C.Bishop for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.6 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 09:06 Recorded game event
New England Patriots · Play 2719 (9:06) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 4 for -2 yards (94-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at BUF 2 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on BUF awarded NE a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 5.1 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:26 Recorded game event
Buffalo Bills · Play 4363 (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid (93-L.Taylor) [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 172 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 172 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 8-A.Borregales kicks 54 yards from NE 35 to BUF 11. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 22 yards (49-E.Hunter; 33-M.Brown). Play 40 8-A.Borregales kicks 54 yards from NE 35 to BUF 11. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 22 yards (49-E.Hunter; 33-M.Brown).
Q114:55 (14:55) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at BUF 37 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane). Play 63 (14:55) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at BUF 37 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).
Q114:26 (14:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 38 for 1 yard (25-M.Jones; 14-R.Spillane). Play 95 (14:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 38 for 1 yard (25-M.Jones; 14-R.Spillane).
Q113:48 (13:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-K.Byard). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 34 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q406:45 Fourth down · NE (6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost NE 2.47 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.201072477579676
Yardline 100 58 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 2, 2026, 5:36 PM UTC
Games 6 5 Wins–losses–ties 3–3–0 3–2–0 Team penalties per game 5.5 / 41.8 yd 4.2 / 34.8 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.2 / 43.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 44.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Bill Vinovich; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 144 model estimates across 172 recorded game entries.
28 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (172 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence 2.16 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Ruling expected points consequence 0.55 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69016/ NA/0.70214 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35109/0.32787/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55875/0.51362/0.52619 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64951/ NA/0.64175 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32521/ NA/0.35427 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31922/0.29676/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51870/ NA/0.53003 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 1.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39395/ NA/0.37614 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 1.92 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56404/ NA/0.54486 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 2.12 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43316/0.41195/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 2.47 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49167/ NA/0.46694 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
BUF Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.12 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
NE Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.12 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
BUF Field goal points above expectation 0.3 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NE Field goal points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BUF Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
NE Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 37th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
BUF Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
NE Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
BUF Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.09 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
59 of 59 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 59 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
59 of 59 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 59 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.55 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.47 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.21 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 2.55 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 3. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.46 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.6 percentage points across this play.
Play 120
(13:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-K.Byard).
Q113:41 (13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch. Play 143 (13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch.
Q113:29 (13:29) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 5 for 2 yards (15-G.Rousseau; 91-E.Oliver). Play 186 (13:29) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 5 for 2 yards (15-G.Rousseau; 91-E.Oliver).
Q112:47 (12:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard pushed ob at NE 20 for 15 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 208 (12:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard pushed ob at NE 20 for 15 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q112:16 (12:16) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 21 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard). Play 236 (12:16) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 21 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard).
Q111:35 (11:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 82-E.Raridon to NE 33 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 258 (11:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 82-E.Raridon to NE 33 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q110:53 (10:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 36 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker). Play 283 (10:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 36 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker).
Q110:16 (10:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to NE 44 for 8 yards (99-T.Parker). Play 305 (10:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to NE 44 for 8 yards (99-T.Parker).
Q109:38 (9:38) 10-D.Maye to NE 43 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 43. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at BUF 36 for 20 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 330 (9:38) 10-D.Maye to NE 43 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 43. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at BUF 36 for 20 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q109:03 (9:03) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 37 for -1 yards (9-B.Chubb). Play 369 (9:03) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 37 for -1 yards (9-B.Chubb).
Q108:24 (8:24) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 38-R.Stevenson (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 391 (8:24) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 38-R.Stevenson (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q108:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 29 for 8 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht). Play 414 (8:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 29 for 8 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht).
Q107:40 (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston). Play 454 (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).
Q107:06 (7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 484 (7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau].
Q107:01 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 510 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q107:01 8-A.Borregales kicks 53 yards from NE 35 to BUF 12. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 26 yards (49-E.Hunter). Play 525 8-A.Borregales kicks 53 yards from NE 35 to BUF 12. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 26 yards (49-E.Hunter).
Q106:56 (6:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -4 yards (91-E.Ponder). Play 560 (6:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -4 yards (91-E.Ponder).
Q106:15 (6:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 40 for 6 yards (25-M.Jones). Play 580 (6:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 40 for 6 yards (25-M.Jones).
Q105:43 (5:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at NE 49 for 11 yards (7-C.Davis). Play 610 (5:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at NE 49 for 11 yards (7-C.Davis).
Q105:12 (5:12) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 46, recovered by BUF-4-J.Cook at BUF 49. Play 645 (5:12) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 46, recovered by BUF-4-J.Cook at BUF 49.
Q104:31 (4:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at NE 47 for 4 yards. Play 674 (4:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at NE 47 for 4 yards.
Q104:01 (4:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Moore left end to NE 41 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane). Play 710 (4:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Moore left end to NE 41 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane).
Q103:27 Timeout #1 by NE at 03:27. Play 747 Timeout #1 by NE at 03:27.
Q103:27 (3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane). Play 735 (3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).
Q102:43 (2:43) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 27 for 5 yards (54-D.Muasau). Play 767 (2:43) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 27 for 5 yards (54-D.Muasau).
Q102:03 (2:03) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 26 for 1 yard (22-C.Woods). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Offensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play. Play 792 (2:03) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 26 for 1 yard (22-C.Woods). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Offensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.
Q101:46 (1:46) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 19 for 13 yards (25-M.Jones). Play 825 (1:46) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 19 for 13 yards (25-M.Jones).
Q101:07 (1:07) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at NE 20 for -1 yards (54-D.Muasau). Play 855 (1:07) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at NE 20 for -1 yards (54-D.Muasau).
Q100:35 (:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to NE 15 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss). Play 887 (:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to NE 15 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 917 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 7 yards (7-C.Davis). Play 937 (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 7 yards (7-C.Davis).
Q214:21 (14:21) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 967 (14:21) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q214:15 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 990 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q214:15 16-T.Bass kicks 44 yards from BUF 35 to NE 21, short of landing zone. PENALTY on BUF-16-T.Bass, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NE 40. Play 1005 16-T.Bass kicks 44 yards from BUF 35 to NE 21, short of landing zone. PENALTY on BUF-16-T.Bass, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NE 40.
Q214:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 32-T.Henderson. Play 1050 (14:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 32-T.Henderson.
Q214:10 (14:10) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson left end to BUF 49 for 11 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1073 (14:10) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson left end to BUF 49 for 11 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q213:31 (13:31) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 41 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1095 (13:31) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 41 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q212:56 (12:56) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 35 for 6 yards (91-E.Oliver; 24-C.Bishop). Play 1117 (12:56) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 35 for 6 yards (91-E.Oliver; 24-C.Bishop).
Q212:18 (12:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to BUF 27 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 1139 (12:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to BUF 27 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q211:41 (11:41) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to BUF 24 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines). Play 1164 (11:41) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to BUF 24 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines).
Q210:56 (10:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to BUF 23 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter). Play 1186 (10:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to BUF 23 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).
Q210:14 (10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30. Play 1208 (10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30.
Q210:08 (10:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss). Play 1245 (10:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss).
Q209:29 (9:29) (Shotgun) 7-R.Davis right guard to BUF 37 for 3 yards (50-G.Jacas; 99-Da.Jones). Play 1322 (9:29) (Shotgun) 7-R.Davis right guard to BUF 37 for 3 yards (50-G.Jacas; 99-Da.Jones).
Q208:43 (8:43) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 5-J.Palmer. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 1344 (8:43) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 5-J.Palmer. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q208:35 (8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu). Play 1367 (8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu).
Q208:21 (8:21) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 27 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by BUF-24-C.Bishop at NE 27. 24-C.Bishop for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 1405 (8:21) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 27 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by BUF-24-C.Bishop at NE 27. 24-C.Bishop for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].
Q208:17 (8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 37 for 26 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 1453 (8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 37 for 26 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q207:35 (7:35) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 27 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford). Play 1478 (7:35) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 27 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford).
Q206:58 (6:58) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 27 for no gain (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 1502 (6:58) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 27 for no gain (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q206:25 (6:25) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop). Play 1526 (6:25) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop).
Q205:41 (5:41) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-44-R.Gilliam has returned to the game. Play 1548 (5:41) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-44-R.Gilliam has returned to the game.
Q205:38 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 1614 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q205:38 8-A.Borregales kicks 57 yards from NE 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 25 yards (36-C.Latu). Play 1632 8-A.Borregales kicks 57 yards from NE 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 25 yards (36-C.Latu).
Q205:32 (5:32) 4-J.Cook right end to BUF 34 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis). Play 1662 (5:32) 4-J.Cook right end to BUF 34 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis).
Q204:51 (4:51) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 42 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss). Play 1684 (4:51) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 42 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q204:07 (4:07) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 43 for 1 yard (94-C.Durden; 14-R.Spillane). Play 1714 (4:07) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 43 for 1 yard (94-C.Durden; 14-R.Spillane).
Q203:24 (3:24) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson). Play 1736 (3:24) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson).
Q202:43 (2:43) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 6 for no gain (4-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis). Play 1766 (2:43) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 6 for no gain (4-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at NE 6 - No Play. Play 1788 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at NE 6 - No Play.
Q201:51 (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore. Play 1834 (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore.
Q201:48 (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 16 - No Play. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced between downs. Play 1857 (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 16 - No Play. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
Q201:40 (1:40) 4-J.Cook left guard to NE 2 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss). Play 1926 (1:40) 4-J.Cook left guard to NE 2 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss).
Q201:06 (1:06) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 0-K.Coleman (25-M.Jones). Play 1948 (1:06) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 0-K.Coleman (25-M.Jones).
Q201:03 (1:03) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1971 (1:03) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q201:00 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 1994 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q201:00 16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35. Play 2009 16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35.
Q201:00 (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right. Play 2033 (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right.
Q200:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Hollins. Play 2056 (:53) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Hollins.
Q200:45 Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:45. Play 2096 Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:45.
Q200:45 (:45) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 38-R.Stevenson [9-B.Chubb]. Play 2084 (:45) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 38-R.Stevenson [9-B.Chubb].
Q200:40 (:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor). Play 2114 (:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor).
Q200:29 (:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman ran ob at NE 47 for 22 yards. Play 2140 (:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman ran ob at NE 47 for 22 yards.
Q200:23 (:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36. Play 2179 (:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36.
Q200:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson). Play 2220 (:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).
Q200:05 (:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 2261 (:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q200:02 16-T.Bass kicks 69 yards from BUF 35 to NE -4. 18-K.Williams to NE 30 for 34 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 21-D.Igbinosun). Play 2287 16-T.Bass kicks 69 yards from BUF 35 to NE -4. 18-K.Williams to NE 30 for 34 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 21-D.Igbinosun).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2310 Q315:00 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 23 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr). Play 2330 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 23 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q314:53 (14:53) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end to NE 30 for 3 yards (94-L.Jackson; 9-B.Chubb). Play 2364 (14:53) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end to NE 30 for 3 yards (94-L.Jackson; 9-B.Chubb).
Q314:16 (14:16) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at NE 36 for 6 yards [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 2388 (14:16) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at NE 36 for 6 yards [15-G.Rousseau].
Q313:47 (13:47) 76-M.Moses reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to NE 42 for 6 yards (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 2425 (13:47) 76-M.Moses reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to NE 42 for 6 yards (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q313:08 (13:08) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 13 yards (90-D.Carter). Play 2449 (13:08) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 13 yards (90-D.Carter).
Q312:33 (12:33) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 44 for 1 yard (99-T.Parker). Play 2478 (12:33) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 44 for 1 yard (99-T.Parker).
Q311:49 (11:49) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 25 for 19 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Penalty on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Play 2500 (11:49) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 25 for 19 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Penalty on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q311:32 (11:32) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 23 for 2 yards (9-B.Chubb; 94-L.Jackson). Play 2541 (11:32) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 23 for 2 yards (9-B.Chubb; 94-L.Jackson).
Q310:47 (10:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at BUF 17 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 2563 (10:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at BUF 17 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q310:13 (10:13) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas. NE-13-M.Hollins was injured during the play. Play 2590 (10:13) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas. NE-13-M.Hollins was injured during the play.
Q310:09 (10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards. Play 2613 (10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards.
Q309:33 (9:33) 32-T.Henderson right guard to BUF 2 for 6 yards (90-D.Carter; 1-M.Hairston). BUF-23-D.Alford was injured during the play. Play 2654 (9:33) 32-T.Henderson right guard to BUF 2 for 6 yards (90-D.Carter; 1-M.Hairston). BUF-23-D.Alford was injured during the play.
Q309:11 (9:11) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 82-E.Raridon. Play 2684 (9:11) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 82-E.Raridon.
Q309:06 (9:06) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 4 for -2 yards (94-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at BUF 2 - No Play. Play 2719 (9:06) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 4 for -2 yards (94-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at BUF 2 - No Play.
Q308:54 (8:54) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 2, and recovers at BUF 2. Play 2752 (8:54) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 2, and recovers at BUF 2.
Q308:18 (8:18) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2781 (8:18) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q308:15 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 2809 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q308:15 8-A.Borregales kicks 60 yards from NE 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 29 yards (54-D.Muasau; 49-E.Hunter). Play 2826 8-A.Borregales kicks 60 yards from NE 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 29 yards (54-D.Muasau; 49-E.Hunter).
Q308:08 (8:08) 4-J.Cook right guard to BUF 36 for 2 yards (94-C.Durden). PENALTY on NE-94-C.Durden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 36. Play 2856 (8:08) 4-J.Cook right guard to BUF 36 for 2 yards (94-C.Durden). PENALTY on NE-94-C.Durden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 36.
Q307:52 (7:52) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook to BUF 43 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss). Play 2889 (7:52) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook to BUF 43 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q307:11 (7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer [97-M.Williams]. Play 2928 (7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer [97-M.Williams].
Q307:07 (7:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to BUF 44 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis). Play 2951 (7:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to BUF 44 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis).
Q306:32 (6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11. Play 2980 (6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11.
Q306:23 (6:23) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 26 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau). Play 3017 (6:23) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 26 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau).
Q305:42 (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NE 31 for 5 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 3046 (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NE 31 for 5 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q304:59 (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 41 for 10 yards. Play 3071 (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 41 for 10 yards.
Q304:30 (4:30) PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play. Play 3101 (4:30) PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.
Q304:19 (4:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 44 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker). Play 3125 (4:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 44 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker).
Q303:42 (3:42) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 18-K.Williams (55-M.Hoecht). Play 3150 (3:42) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 18-K.Williams (55-M.Hoecht).
Q303:38 (3:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Doubs (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 3173 (3:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Doubs (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].
Q303:33 (3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter). Play 3196 (3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter).
Q303:24 (3:24) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left [94-C.Durden]. Play 3222 (3:24) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left [94-C.Durden].
Q303:16 (3:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 17 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard). Play 3252 (3:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 17 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q302:40 (2:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 10-K.Shakir. Play 3277 (2:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 10-K.Shakir.
Q302:36 (2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. Play 3300 (2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
Q302:29 (2:29) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 45 for 8 yards (24-C.Bishop). BUF-94-L.Jackson was injured during the play. Play 3320 (2:29) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 45 for 8 yards (24-C.Bishop). BUF-94-L.Jackson was injured during the play.
Q302:14 (2:14) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 46 for 1 yard (96-D.Walker). Play 3354 (2:14) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 46 for 1 yard (96-D.Walker).
Q301:38 (1:38) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 45 for -1 yards (42-D.Williams, 52-K.Elarms-Orr). Play 3385 (1:38) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 45 for -1 yards (42-D.Williams, 52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q300:56 (:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. Play 3409 (:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
Q300:47 (:47) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 28 for 8 yards (92-J.Farmer; 14-R.Spillane). Play 3427 (:47) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 28 for 8 yards (92-J.Farmer; 14-R.Spillane).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3449 Q415:00 (15:00) 4-J.Cook left end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 17 yards (25-M.Jones). Play 3469 (15:00) 4-J.Cook left end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 17 yards (25-M.Jones).
Q414:26 (14:26) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 45 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss). Play 3496 (14:26) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 45 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q413:50 (13:50) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 5-J.Palmer to NE 42 for 3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play. Play 3518 (13:50) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 5-J.Palmer to NE 42 for 3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q413:31 (13:31) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right. Play 3546 (13:31) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right.
Q413:26 (13:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor). Play 3576 (13:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).
Q413:00 (13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-T.Johnson up the middle to NE 17 for 3 yards (91-E.Ponder). Play 3601 (13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-T.Johnson up the middle to NE 17 for 3 yards (91-E.Ponder).
Q412:21 (12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to NE 20 for -3 yards (28-K.Vildor). Play 3623 (12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to NE 20 for -3 yards (28-K.Vildor).
Q411:53 (11:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 20 for no gain (25-M.Jones). Play 3656 (11:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 20 for no gain (25-M.Jones).
Q411:11 (11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 3691 (11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q411:07 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 9-C.Kiner to NE 26 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen). Play 3711 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 9-C.Kiner to NE 26 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen).
Q411:02 (11:02) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 34 for 8 yards (9-B.Chubb). Play 3741 (11:02) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 34 for 8 yards (9-B.Chubb).
Q410:24 (10:24) 32-T.Henderson right tackle to NE 35 for 1 yard (15-G.Rousseau; 42-D.Williams). Play 3763 (10:24) 32-T.Henderson right tackle to NE 35 for 1 yard (15-G.Rousseau; 42-D.Williams).
Q409:49 (9:49) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 36 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter). Play 3785 (9:49) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 36 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).
Q409:09 (9:09) 32-T.Henderson left end pushed ob at NE 44 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin). ** Injury Update: NE-82-E.Raridon has returned to the game. Play 3807 (9:09) 32-T.Henderson left end pushed ob at NE 44 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin). ** Injury Update: NE-82-E.Raridon has returned to the game.
Q408:31 (8:31) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 39 for -5 yards (96-D.Walker). Play 3834 (8:31) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 39 for -5 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q407:47 (7:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard to NE 49 for 10 yards (1-M.Hairston). PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 39 - No Play. Play 3856 (7:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard to NE 49 for 10 yards (1-M.Hairston). PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 39 - No Play.
Q407:30 (7:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 42 for 13 yards (15-G.Rousseau). Play 3892 (7:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 42 for 13 yards (15-G.Rousseau).
Q406:45 (6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. Play 3917 (6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
Q406:36 (6:36) 4-J.Cook left tackle to BUF 36 for 16 yards (4-C.Woodson). Play 3935 (6:36) 4-J.Cook left tackle to BUF 36 for 16 yards (4-C.Woodson).
Q405:54 (5:54) 4-J.Cook left end to BUF 42 for 6 yards (92-J.Farmer). Play 3957 (5:54) 4-J.Cook left end to BUF 42 for 6 yards (92-J.Farmer).
Q405:11 (5:11) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [91-E.Ponder]. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game. Play 3979 (5:11) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [91-E.Ponder]. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.
Q405:06 (5:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard). Play 4002 (5:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q404:33 (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4030 (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q404:27 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 5-J.Palmer is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 4056 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 5-J.Palmer is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q404:27 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to NE 3. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 24 yards (41-K.Walker; 52-K.Elarms-Orr). Play 4075 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to NE 3. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 24 yards (41-K.Walker; 52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q404:21 (4:21) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NE 41 for 14 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 4098 (4:21) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NE 41 for 14 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q403:47 (3:47) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Henderson. Play 4125 (3:47) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Henderson.
Q403:42 (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to BUF 47 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 4148 (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to BUF 47 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q403:06 (3:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (1-M.Hairston). Play 4173 (3:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (1-M.Hairston).
Q403:00 (3:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to BUF 28 for 19 yards (1-M.Hairston). ** Injury Update: BUF-94-L.Jackson has returned to the game. Play 4196 (3:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to BUF 28 for 19 yards (1-M.Hairston). ** Injury Update: BUF-94-L.Jackson has returned to the game.
Q402:25 (2:25) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to BUF 23 for 5 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 4221 (2:25) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to BUF 23 for 5 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams. Play 4243 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams.
Q401:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4276 (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:50 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 4302 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q401:50 8-A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to BUF 6. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 24 for 18 yards (91-E.Ponder; 54-D.Muasau). Play 4315 8-A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to BUF 6. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 24 for 18 yards (91-E.Ponder; 54-D.Muasau).
Q401:42 (1:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 31 for 7 yards (91-E.Ponder). Play 4338 (1:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 31 for 7 yards (91-E.Ponder).
Q401:26 (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid (93-L.Taylor) [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play. Play 4363 (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid (93-L.Taylor) [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play.
Q401:21 (1:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle ran ob at BUF 40 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane). Play 4397 (1:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle ran ob at BUF 40 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).
Q401:14 (1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Play 4424 (1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).
Q401:05 (1:05) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 19 for no gain (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard). Play 4456 (1:05) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 19 for no gain (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard).
Q401:00 Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:00. Play 4492 Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:00.
Q401:00 (1:00) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism. Play 4480 (1:00) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism.
Q400:55 (:55) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at NE 31 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 4512 (:55) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at NE 31 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q400:49 (:49) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 33 for 2 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 8-T.Bernard). Play 4542 (:49) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 33 for 2 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 8-T.Bernard).
Q400:42 Timeout #2 by BUF at 00:42. Play 4578 Timeout #2 by BUF at 00:42.
Q400:42 (:42) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 32 for -1 yards. Play 4566 (:42) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 32 for -1 yards.
Q400:39 Timeout #3 by BUF at 00:39. Play 4612 Timeout #3 by BUF at 00:39.
Q400:39 (:39) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 31 for -1 yards. Play 4600 (:39) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 31 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 405
Half seconds remaining 405
Quarter seconds remaining 405
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4916660463975385 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49167/ NA/0.46694 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:30 Penalty · NE (4:30) PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF 2.16 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 15
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1170
Half seconds remaining 1170
Quarter seconds remaining 270
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1170
Half seconds remaining 1170
Quarter seconds remaining 270
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BUF 0.55 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 15
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1170
Half seconds remaining 1170
Quarter seconds remaining 270
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1170
Half seconds remaining 1170
Quarter seconds remaining 270
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q300:56 Fourth down · NE (:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost NE 1.92 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.3708833713546839
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.7344444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 956
Half seconds remaining 956
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 56
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5640439918342276 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56404/ NA/0.54486 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:36 Fourth down · BUF (2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 1.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.4144692397681292
Yardline 100 83
Elapsed share 0.7066666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1056
Half seconds remaining 1056
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 156
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3939506115658993 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39395/ NA/0.37614 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:35 Fourth down · BUF (8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu). + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 1.678889178210336
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.3569444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2315
Half seconds remaining 515
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 515
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6495067355466373 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64951/ NA/0.64175 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:41 Fourth down · BUF (13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 6.411750812274009
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.02194444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3521
Half seconds remaining 1721
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 821
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7021438884082442 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69016/ NA/0.70214 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:40 Fourth down · NE (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston). + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 4.293152279377464
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.1222222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3160
Half seconds remaining 1360
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3510909487101351 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35109/0.32787/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:27 Fourth down · BUF (3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane). + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 3.241091478178597
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.1925
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2907
Half seconds remaining 1107
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 207
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5587542335344735 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55875/0.51362/0.52619 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:40 Fourth down · NE (:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor). + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.9904009612347348
Yardline 100 65
Elapsed share 0.4888888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1840
Half seconds remaining 40
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 40
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.354272243539214 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32521/ NA/0.35427 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:33 Fourth down · NE (3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter). + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.4415680292030888
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.6908333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1113
Half seconds remaining 1113
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 213
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5300307596799037 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51870/ NA/0.53003 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:38 Fumble · NE (9:38) 10-D.Maye to NE 43 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 43. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at BUF 36 for 20 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). + Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF -0.12 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NE 0.12 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q107:01 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 22 recorded events Q105:12 Fumble · BUF (5:12) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 46, recovered by BUF-4-J.Cook at BUF 49. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q102:03 Penalty · BUF (2:03) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 26 for 1 yard (22-C.Woods). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Offensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:15 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q214:15 Penalty · NE 16-T.Bass kicks 44 yards from BUF 35 to NE 21, short of landing zone. PENALTY on BUF-16-T.Bass, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NE 40. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:14 Fumble · NE (10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30. + Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF -0.12 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NE 0.12 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q208:43 Fourth down · BUF (8:43) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 5-J.Palmer. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:38 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Penalty · BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at NE 6 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:48 Penalty · BUF (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 16 - No Play. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:00 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:23 Fumble · BUF (:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36. + Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF -0.12 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NE 0.12 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q200:05 Kick · BUF (:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Field goal points above expectation BUF 0.3 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q311:49 Fourth down · NE (11:49) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 25 for 19 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Penalty on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:09 Fourth down · NE (10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards. + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.6856258664074605
Yardline 100 17
Elapsed share 0.5808333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q309:06 Penalty · NE (9:06) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 4 for -2 yards (94-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at BUF 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:54 Fumble · NE (8:54) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 2, and recovers at BUF 2. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q308:15 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q308:08 Penalty · BUF (8:08) 4-J.Cook right guard to BUF 36 for 2 yards (94-C.Durden). PENALTY on NE-94-C.Durden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 36. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:32 Penalty · BUF (6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:11 Kick · BUF (11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 2.12 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team NE
Home team BUF
Away total 21.25
Home total 28.25
Total line 49.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.2702158228529518
Yardline 100 20
Elapsed share 0.8136111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q407:47 Penalty · NE (7:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard to NE 49 for 10 yards (1-M.Hairston). PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:26 Penalty · BUF (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid (93-L.Taylor) [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 7c97cad1c81536e89611c0417e6903548c67557e4af523949d5955c4813b1417Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: f832334fd9139bb98d20184c8392e9c0e26fd2684b3452d5193e9c43b2cc279d
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-3
Game seconds remaining 1509
Half seconds remaining 1509
Quarter seconds remaining 609
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3192151340728725 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31922/0.29676/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 671
Half seconds remaining 671
Quarter seconds remaining 671
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4331596423012303 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43316/0.41195/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 0.3 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled