Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NE by 3.5; actual result: NE by 3.
The 0.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 768 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Opening the record…
FINAL SCORE
GAME RATING
The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
| Game statistic | NEWIN | BUFLOSS |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 29 | 26 |
| Total offensive yards | 405 | 340 |
| Penalties | 6 | 5 |
| Penalty yards | 35 | 31 |
| Turnover margin | 0 | 0 |
| Non-offensive touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
New England Patriots covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
3,186 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (43.8%).
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗HOW THE GAME MOVED
How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Loading fan feedback…
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
(8:21) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 27 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by BUF-24-C.Bishop at NE 27. 24-C.Bishop for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].
Estimated chance to win moved 1.6 percentage points across this play.
(9:06) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 4 for -2 yards (94-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at BUF 2 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 5.1 percentage points across this play.
(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid (93-L.Taylor) [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
GAME
8-A.Borregales kicks 54 yards from NE 35 to BUF 11. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 22 yards (49-E.Hunter; 33-M.Brown).
(14:55) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at BUF 37 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).
(14:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 38 for 1 yard (25-M.Jones; 14-R.Spillane).
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
2.47 percentage points Supported
Updates automatically when source data changes.
This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92Retrieved Oct 4, 2026, 12:50 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0
SHA-256 cbbe44e29207a21d5ba3e53f2f2d193498284678dbff6485ab8a262559ee4d9eThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
768 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
| Comparison | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Actual | 6 / 35 yd | 5 / 31 yd |
| Expected for this matchup | 5.6 / 45 yd | 5.6 / 43.5 yd |
| League average | 6 / 49.5 yd | 6 / 49.5 yd |
| Team’s usual penalties | 5.9 / 48.7 yd · 85 games | 6.2 / 50.6 yd · 84 games |
| Opponent usually draws | 6 / 48.8 yd · 84 games | 5.6 / 43.1 yd · 85 games |
The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 708 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 87.7 yards across both teams.
| Team history with this referee | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Wins–losses–ties | 3–3–0 | 3–2–0 |
| Team penalties per game | 5.5 / 41.8 yd | 4.2 / 34.8 yd |
Home teams: 5.2 / 43.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 44.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Bill Vinovich; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opponent NE was charged 6 penalties for 35 yards.
Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opponent BUF was charged 5 penalties for 31 yards.
14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385144 model estimates across 172 recorded game entries.
28 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
| Period | Clock | Source play | BUF win chance | Estimate source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 1 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 40 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 14:55 | Play 63 ↗ | 56.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:26 | Play 95 ↗ | 56.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:48 | Play 120 ↗ | 53.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:41 | Play 143 ↗ | 49.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:29 | Play 186 ↗ | 52.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:47 | Play 208 ↗ | 54.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:16 | Play 236 ↗ | 51.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:35 | Play 258 ↗ | 52.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:53 | Play 283 ↗ | 49.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:16 | Play 305 ↗ | 48.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:38 | Play 330 ↗ | 47.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:03 | Play 369 ↗ | 40.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:24 | Play 391 ↗ | 41.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:19 | Play 414 ↗ | 45.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:40 | Play 454 ↗ | 45.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:06 | Play 484 ↗ | 37.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:01 | Play 510 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 07:01 | Play 525 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 06:56 | Play 560 ↗ | 35.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:15 | Play 580 ↗ | 32.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:43 | Play 610 ↗ | 31.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:12 | Play 645 ↗ | 36.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:31 | Play 674 ↗ | 33.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:01 | Play 710 ↗ | 32.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:27 | Play 747 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 03:27 | Play 735 ↗ | 29.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:43 | Play 767 ↗ | 38.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:03 | Play 792 ↗ | 40.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:46 | Play 825 ↗ | 36.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:07 | Play 855 ↗ | 41.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:35 | Play 887 ↗ | 39.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:00 | Play 917 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 15:00 | Play 937 ↗ | 38.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:21 | Play 967 ↗ | 44.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:15 | Play 990 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 14:15 | Play 1005 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 14:15 | Play 1050 ↗ | 48.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:10 | Play 1073 ↗ | 49.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:31 | Play 1095 ↗ | 45.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:56 | Play 1117 ↗ | 44.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:18 | Play 1139 ↗ | 40.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:41 | Play 1164 ↗ | 39.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:56 | Play 1186 ↗ | 38.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:14 | Play 1208 ↗ | 40.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:08 | Play 1245 ↗ | 54.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:29 | Play 1322 ↗ | 54.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:43 | Play 1344 ↗ | 54.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:35 | Play 1367 ↗ | 50.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:21 | Play 1405 ↗ | 47.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:17 | Play 1453 ↗ | 49.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:35 | Play 1478 ↗ | 39.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:58 | Play 1502 ↗ | 38.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:25 | Play 1526 ↗ | 39.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:41 | Play 1548 ↗ | 33.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:38 | Play 1614 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 05:38 | Play 1632 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 05:32 | Play 1662 ↗ | 31.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:51 | Play 1684 ↗ | 30.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:07 | Play 1714 ↗ | 32.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:24 | Play 1736 ↗ | 34.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:43 | Play 1766 ↗ | 43.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:00 | Play 1788 ↗ | 42.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:51 | Play 1834 ↗ | 36.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:48 | Play 1857 ↗ | 34.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:40 | Play 1926 ↗ | 43.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:06 | Play 1948 ↗ | 45.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:03 | Play 1971 ↗ | 43.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:00 | Play 1994 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:00 | Play 2009 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:00 | Play 2033 ↗ | 48.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:53 | Play 2056 ↗ | 49.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:45 | Play 2096 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:45 | Play 2084 ↗ | 52.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:40 | Play 2114 ↗ | 54.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:29 | Play 2140 ↗ | 53.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:23 | Play 2179 ↗ | 56.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:16 | Play 2220 ↗ | 47.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:05 | Play 2261 ↗ | 67.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:02 | Play 2287 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:00 | Play 2310 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 15:00 | Play 2330 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 14:53 | Play 2364 ↗ | 62.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:16 | Play 2388 ↗ | 63.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:47 | Play 2425 ↗ | 63.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:08 | Play 2449 ↗ | 60.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:33 | Play 2478 ↗ | 56.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:49 | Play 2500 ↗ | 55.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:32 | Play 2541 ↗ | 49.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:47 | Play 2563 ↗ | 50.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:13 | Play 2590 ↗ | 50.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:09 | Play 2613 ↗ | 54.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:33 | Play 2654 ↗ | 45.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:11 | Play 2684 ↗ | 43.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:06 | Play 2719 ↗ | 46.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:54 | Play 2752 ↗ | 41.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:18 | Play 2781 ↗ | 43.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:15 | Play 2809 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 08:15 | Play 2826 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 08:08 | Play 2856 ↗ | 40.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:52 | Play 2889 ↗ | 41.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:11 | Play 2928 ↗ | 41.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:07 | Play 2951 ↗ | 35.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:32 | Play 2980 ↗ | 32.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:23 | Play 3017 ↗ | 34.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:42 | Play 3046 ↗ | 36.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:59 | Play 3071 ↗ | 36.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:30 | Play 3101 ↗ | 30.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:19 | Play 3125 ↗ | 33.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:42 | Play 3150 ↗ | 31.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:38 | Play 3173 ↗ | 34.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:33 | Play 3196 ↗ | 38.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:24 | Play 3222 ↗ | 35.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:16 | Play 3252 ↗ | 34.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:40 | Play 3277 ↗ | 33.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:36 | Play 3300 ↗ | 28.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:29 | Play 3320 ↗ | 30.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:14 | Play 3354 ↗ | 29.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:38 | Play 3385 ↗ | 31.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:56 | Play 3409 ↗ | 35.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:47 | Play 3427 ↗ | 35.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:00 | Play 3449 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 15:00 | Play 3469 ↗ | 36.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:26 | Play 3496 ↗ | 41.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:50 | Play 3518 ↗ | 42.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:31 | Play 3546 ↗ | 43.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:26 | Play 3576 ↗ | 39.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:00 | Play 3601 ↗ | 55.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:21 | Play 3623 ↗ | 54.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:53 | Play 3656 ↗ | 49.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:11 | Play 3691 ↗ | 43.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:07 | Play 3711 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 11:02 | Play 3741 ↗ | 44.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:24 | Play 3763 ↗ | 42.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:49 | Play 3785 ↗ | 43.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:09 | Play 3807 ↗ | 40.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:31 | Play 3834 ↗ | 39.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:47 | Play 3856 ↗ | 39.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:30 | Play 3892 ↗ | 44.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:45 | Play 3917 ↗ | 42.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:36 | Play 3935 ↗ | 52.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:54 | Play 3957 ↗ | 55.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:11 | Play 3979 ↗ | 54.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:06 | Play 4002 ↗ | 51.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:33 | Play 4030 ↗ | 65.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:27 | Play 4056 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 04:27 | Play 4075 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 04:21 | Play 4098 ↗ | 77.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:47 | Play 4125 ↗ | 76.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:42 | Play 4148 ↗ | 78.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:06 | Play 4173 ↗ | 71.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:00 | Play 4196 ↗ | 74.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:25 | Play 4221 ↗ | 64.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:00 | Play 4243 ↗ | 59.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:55 | Play 4276 ↗ | 61.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:50 | Play 4302 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:50 | Play 4315 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:42 | Play 4338 ↗ | 31.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:26 | Play 4363 ↗ | 33.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:21 | Play 4397 ↗ | 36.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:14 | Play 4424 ↗ | 34.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:05 | Play 4456 ↗ | 8.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:00 | Play 4492 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:00 | Play 4480 ↗ | 6.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:55 | Play 4512 ↗ | 6.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:49 | Play 4542 ↗ | 5.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:42 | Play 4578 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:42 | Play 4566 ↗ | 5.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:39 | Play 4612 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:39 | Play 4600 ↗ | 6.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:00 | Play 4629 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
59 of 59 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
59 of 59 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Estimated chance to win moved 2.6 percentage points across this play.
(13:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-K.Byard).
(13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch.
(13:29) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 5 for 2 yards (15-G.Rousseau; 91-E.Oliver).
(12:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard pushed ob at NE 20 for 15 yards (42-D.Williams).
(12:16) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 21 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard).
(11:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 82-E.Raridon to NE 33 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).
(10:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 36 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker).
(10:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to NE 44 for 8 yards (99-T.Parker).
(9:38) 10-D.Maye to NE 43 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 43. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at BUF 36 for 20 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
(9:03) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 37 for -1 yards (9-B.Chubb).
(8:24) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 38-R.Stevenson (21-D.Igbinosun).
(8:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 29 for 8 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht).
(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).
(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau].
8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
8-A.Borregales kicks 53 yards from NE 35 to BUF 12. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 26 yards (49-E.Hunter).
(6:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -4 yards (91-E.Ponder).
(6:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 40 for 6 yards (25-M.Jones).
(5:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at NE 49 for 11 yards (7-C.Davis).
(5:12) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 46, recovered by BUF-4-J.Cook at BUF 49.
(4:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at NE 47 for 4 yards.
(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Moore left end to NE 41 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane).
Timeout #1 by NE at 03:27.
(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).
(2:43) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 27 for 5 yards (54-D.Muasau).
(2:03) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 26 for 1 yard (22-C.Woods). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Offensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.
(1:46) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 19 for 13 yards (25-M.Jones).
(1:07) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at NE 20 for -1 yards (54-D.Muasau).
(:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to NE 15 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss).
END QUARTER 1
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 7 yards (7-C.Davis).
(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
16-T.Bass kicks 44 yards from BUF 35 to NE 21, short of landing zone. PENALTY on BUF-16-T.Bass, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NE 40.
(14:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 32-T.Henderson.
(14:10) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson left end to BUF 49 for 11 yards (8-T.Bernard).
(13:31) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 41 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).
(12:56) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 35 for 6 yards (91-E.Oliver; 24-C.Bishop).
(12:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to BUF 27 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams).
(11:41) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to BUF 24 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines).
(10:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to BUF 23 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).
(10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30.
(10:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss).
(9:29) (Shotgun) 7-R.Davis right guard to BUF 37 for 3 yards (50-G.Jacas; 99-Da.Jones).
(8:43) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 5-J.Palmer. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined.
(8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu).
(8:21) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 27 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by BUF-24-C.Bishop at NE 27. 24-C.Bishop for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].
(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 37 for 26 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
(7:35) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 27 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford).
(6:58) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 27 for no gain (21-D.Igbinosun).
(6:25) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop).
(5:41) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-44-R.Gilliam has returned to the game.
8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
8-A.Borregales kicks 57 yards from NE 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 25 yards (36-C.Latu).
(5:32) 4-J.Cook right end to BUF 34 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis).
(4:51) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 42 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss).
(4:07) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 43 for 1 yard (94-C.Durden; 14-R.Spillane).
(3:24) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson).
(2:43) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 6 for no gain (4-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at NE 6 - No Play.
(1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore.
(1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 16 - No Play. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
(1:40) 4-J.Cook left guard to NE 2 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss).
(1:06) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 0-K.Coleman (25-M.Jones).
(1:03) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35.
(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right.
(:53) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Hollins.
Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:45.
(:45) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 38-R.Stevenson [9-B.Chubb].
(:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor).
(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman ran ob at NE 47 for 22 yards.
(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36.
(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).
(:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
16-T.Bass kicks 69 yards from BUF 35 to NE -4. 18-K.Williams to NE 30 for 34 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 21-D.Igbinosun).
END QUARTER 2
16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 23 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).
(14:53) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end to NE 30 for 3 yards (94-L.Jackson; 9-B.Chubb).
(14:16) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at NE 36 for 6 yards [15-G.Rousseau].
(13:47) 76-M.Moses reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to NE 42 for 6 yards (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
(13:08) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 13 yards (90-D.Carter).
(12:33) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 44 for 1 yard (99-T.Parker).
(11:49) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 25 for 19 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Penalty on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
(11:32) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 23 for 2 yards (9-B.Chubb; 94-L.Jackson).
(10:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at BUF 17 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard).
(10:13) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas. NE-13-M.Hollins was injured during the play.
(10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards.
(9:33) 32-T.Henderson right guard to BUF 2 for 6 yards (90-D.Carter; 1-M.Hairston). BUF-23-D.Alford was injured during the play.
(9:11) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 82-E.Raridon.
(9:06) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 4 for -2 yards (94-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at BUF 2 - No Play.
(8:54) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 2, and recovers at BUF 2.
(8:18) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
8-A.Borregales kicks 60 yards from NE 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 29 yards (54-D.Muasau; 49-E.Hunter).
(8:08) 4-J.Cook right guard to BUF 36 for 2 yards (94-C.Durden). PENALTY on NE-94-C.Durden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 36.
(7:52) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook to BUF 43 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss).
(7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer [97-M.Williams].
(7:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to BUF 44 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis).
(6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11.
(6:23) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 26 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau).
(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NE 31 for 5 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
(4:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 41 for 10 yards.
(4:30) PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.
(4:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 44 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker).
(3:42) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 18-K.Williams (55-M.Hoecht).
(3:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Doubs (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].
(3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter).
(3:24) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left [94-C.Durden].
(3:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 17 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard).
(2:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 10-K.Shakir.
(2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
(2:29) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 45 for 8 yards (24-C.Bishop). BUF-94-L.Jackson was injured during the play.
(2:14) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 46 for 1 yard (96-D.Walker).
(1:38) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 45 for -1 yards (42-D.Williams, 52-K.Elarms-Orr).
(:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
(:47) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 28 for 8 yards (92-J.Farmer; 14-R.Spillane).
END QUARTER 3
(15:00) 4-J.Cook left end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 17 yards (25-M.Jones).
(14:26) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 45 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss).
(13:50) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 5-J.Palmer to NE 42 for 3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
(13:31) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right.
(13:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).
(13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-T.Johnson up the middle to NE 17 for 3 yards (91-E.Ponder).
(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to NE 20 for -3 yards (28-K.Vildor).
(11:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 20 for no gain (25-M.Jones).
(11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 9-C.Kiner to NE 26 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen).
(11:02) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 34 for 8 yards (9-B.Chubb).
(10:24) 32-T.Henderson right tackle to NE 35 for 1 yard (15-G.Rousseau; 42-D.Williams).
(9:49) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 36 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).
(9:09) 32-T.Henderson left end pushed ob at NE 44 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin). ** Injury Update: NE-82-E.Raridon has returned to the game.
(8:31) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 39 for -5 yards (96-D.Walker).
(7:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard to NE 49 for 10 yards (1-M.Hairston). PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 39 - No Play.
(7:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 42 for 13 yards (15-G.Rousseau).
(6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
(6:36) 4-J.Cook left tackle to BUF 36 for 16 yards (4-C.Woodson).
(5:54) 4-J.Cook left end to BUF 42 for 6 yards (92-J.Farmer).
(5:11) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [91-E.Ponder]. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.
(5:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).
(4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 5-J.Palmer is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to NE 3. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 24 yards (41-K.Walker; 52-K.Elarms-Orr).
(4:21) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NE 41 for 14 yards (42-D.Williams).
(3:47) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Henderson.
(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to BUF 47 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).
(3:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (1-M.Hairston).
(3:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to BUF 28 for 19 yards (1-M.Hairston). ** Injury Update: BUF-94-L.Jackson has returned to the game.
(2:25) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to BUF 23 for 5 yards (8-T.Bernard).
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams.
(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
8-A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to BUF 6. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 24 for 18 yards (91-E.Ponder; 54-D.Muasau).
(1:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 31 for 7 yards (91-E.Ponder).
(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid (93-L.Taylor) [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play.
(1:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle ran ob at BUF 40 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).
(1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).
(1:05) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 19 for no gain (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard).
Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:00.
(1:00) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism.
(:55) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at NE 31 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).
(:49) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 33 for 2 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 8-T.Bernard).
Timeout #2 by BUF at 00:42.
(:42) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 32 for -1 yards.
Timeout #3 by BUF at 00:39.
(:39) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 31 for -1 yards.
END GAME
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
2.16 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.55 points Supported
1.92 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1.78 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.78 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.12 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0.12 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.08 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-0.12 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0.12 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.08 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
-0.12 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0.12 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0.3 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points · experimental Experimental
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
2.12 percentage points · experimental Experimental
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 12:13 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 90655a4d92fe396c0ecef98059657017bac94cb1a331123be02d815917cc775fRetrieved Oct 5, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 2e340529fef3a399b72e5233df2851aa8e1c2ebbd871665eb5ac6fed7c03d056Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 3:21 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 338d7fe01d803916b2d5ed31fb4e5405914a8030ae2296ed449e27471d5b594fTraining window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 083ed9f663291b171fa5420571f459d5b2b119d7fbf90632f7149e665b839e21
Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.3 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled