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FINAL SCORE

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

BAL 30—ATL 23

✓ Analysis completeUpdated Oct 12, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC

GAME RATING

Fair

1 / 5

Fair
Debatable
Hmm
Sus
RIGGED?

The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

How this rating was calculated

Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

Result versus box score

Fair · 1/5

Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: BAL by 0.7; actual result: BAL by 7.

The 6.3-point difference was matched or exceeded in 366 of 816 earlier comparison games.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalty pattern

Fair · 1/5

ATL minus BAL penalty-yard difference: 27 versus -4.5 expected.

The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 544 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Result versus spread

Fair · 1/5

Recorded spread: ATL by 3.5; actual result: BAL by 7. The difference was 10.5 points.

2,969 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalties extending one drive

Fair · 1/5

No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.

The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.

The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.

Rating thresholds

Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.

Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.

Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.

Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.

RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.

Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.

These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.

Full methodology ↗

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Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Actual team statistics for BAL at ATL
Game statistic	BALWIN	ATLLOSS
Points scored	30	23
Total offensive yards	391	367
Penalties	5	7
Penalty yards	40	67
Turnover margin	0	0
Non-offensive touchdowns	0	Unavailable

Spread vs. result

Within the usual range

Expected marginAtlanta Falcons by 3.5

Final marginBaltimore Ravens by 7

Difference10.5 points

Baltimore Ravens covered the spread. The underdog won outright.

2,969 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (40.8%).

Where this comparison comes from

The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.

The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.

View the source data ↗

Did the score fit the performance?

Yardage + turnovers

Expected from the box scoreBAL by 0.7

Actual final margin

HOW THE GAME MOVED

Game momentum

Atlanta Falcons chance to win · vs. Baltimore RavensBefore-play estimates · circle = recorded result

DIG INTO THE NUMBERSDetailed analysis by categoryOfficiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution.

Impact of officiating decisions

How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.

BALObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Penalty declined

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:226

ATLObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Unsupported state

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Fan feedback

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Notable plays 4

These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.

Q3 · 03:47Recorded game event

Atlanta Falcons · Play 2667

(3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.

Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.

Estimated chance to win moved 12.8 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 02:25Recorded game event

Baltimore Ravens · Play 3671

(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman; 95-G.Dexter). PENALTY on BAL-51-E.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play.

Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

Estimated chance to win moved 0.9 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 02:17Recorded game event

Baltimore Ravens · Play 3704

(2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on ATL-31-X.Watts, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.

THE UNDERLYING RECORD

Source plays 194

Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.

Browse all 194 source plays

Q115:00GAMEPlay 1

GAME

Source play 1Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:0016-J.Bailey kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.Play 39

16-J.Bailey kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.

Source play 39Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:00(15:00) 4-Z.Flowers right end to BAL 48 for 13 yards (31-X.Watts).Play 56

(15:00) 4-Z.Flowers right end to BAL 48 for 13 yards (31-X.Watts).

Source play 56ATL preplay win probability: 55.1%Link to source play ↗

Q114:23(14:23) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to ATL 45 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson).Play 78

(14:23) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to ATL 45 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson).

Source play 78ATL preplay win probability: 52.0%Link to source play ↗

Q113:48(13:48) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 43-J.Hill.Play 100

CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 31Optional calculations for individual plays.

Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.

Q406:30Fourth down · BAL(6:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

Not reviewedPlay 3369Link to event

Fourth down decision cost BAL

4 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 4
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 0.09887452092439925
Yardline 100

ABOUT THIS REPORTData & report historySources, calculation notes and earlier versions.

Automatic analysis

Complete

Updates automatically when source data changes.

Source data

Early source data

The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.

Data limitations and calculation notes (4)

Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation.
Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent.
Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified.
overtime_model_experimental: Overtime estimates are partial, empirical and uncalibrated; unavailable states remain gaps. Terminal values are observed results, not predictions.

Data sources

football-zebras

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4

ftn-via-nflverse

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56

nflverse-schedules

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0

Were the penalties unusual?

Accepted penalties / yards

Actual penalties compared with league, team, opponent and referee expectations
Comparison	BAL	ATL
Actual	5 / 40 yd	7 / 67 yd
Expected for this matchup	6 / 47.4 yd	5.4 / 42.9 yd
League average	6 / 49.5 yd	6 / 49.5 yd
Team’s usual penalties	6.1 / 51.2 yd · 85 games	5.3 / 44 yd · 85 games
Opponent usually draws	6.3 / 50.6 yd · 85 games	5.7 / 46.6 yd · 85 games

The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 544 of 779 comparison games.

Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.

The referee: Brad Allen

Head official

Assignment: Football Zebras

In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.4 accepted penalties for 89.2 yards across both teams.

Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee	BAL	ATL
Games	7	3
Wins–losses–ties	4–3–0	1–2–0
Team penalties per game	6 / 49.9 yd	4.3 / 30 yd

Referee comparison details

Home teams: 5.3 / 40.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.1 / 48.4 yd per game.

These are crew totals in games led by Brad Allen; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.

Historical coverage & audit method

14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons

Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1

Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385

Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.

View all chart data (194 entries)

Atlanta Falcons chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Period	Clock	Source play	ATL win chance	Tie chance	Estimate source
Q1	15:00	Play 1 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 39 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 56 ↗	55.1%	—	Regulation model
Q1	14:23	Play 78 ↗	52.0%	—	Regulation model
Q1	13:48	Play 100 ↗	52.5%	—	Regulation model
Q1	13:44	Play 135 ↗	55.0%	—	Regulation model
Q1	13:02	Play 157 ↗	44.9%	—	Regulation model
Q1	12:23	Play 179 ↗	45.2%	—	Regulation model
Q1	11:39	Play 204 ↗	41.3%	—	Regulation model
Q1	10:57	Play 226 ↗	39.2%	—	Regulation model
Q1	10:36	Play 263 ↗	42.6%	—	Regulation model
Q1	10:30	Play 286 ↗	46.1%	—	Regulation model
Q1	10:27	Play 313 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q1	10:21	Play 347 ↗	51.2%	—	Regulation model
Q1	10:15	Play 370 ↗	50.0%	—	Regulation model
Q1	09:46	Play 392 ↗	47.9%	—	Regulation model
Q1	09:41	Play 415 ↗	44.3%	—	Regulation model
Q1	09:33	Play 435 ↗	45.5%	—	Regulation model
Q1	08:59	Play 466 ↗	43.8%	—	Regulation model
Q1	08:14	Play 486 ↗	48.3%	—	Regulation model
Q1	08:03	Play 528 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q1	08:03	Play 543 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q1	08:03	Play 567 ↗	67.2%	—	Regulation model
Q1	07:30	Play 589 ↗	65.9%	—	Regulation model
Q1	06:54	Play 616 ↗	68.4%	—	Regulation model
Q1	06:15	Play 645 ↗	65.8%	—	Regulation model
Q1	06:10	Play 670 ↗	67.6%	—	Regulation model
Q1	05:30	Play 692 ↗	69.1%	—	Regulation model
Q1	04:53	Play 717 ↗	73.2%	—	Regulation model
Q1	04:47	Play 737 ↗	71.4%	—	Regulation model
Q1	04:07	Play 766 ↗	74.2%	—	Regulation model
Q1	03:28	Play 788 ↗	73.9%	—	Regulation model
Q1	03:24	Play 811 ↗	71.4%	—	Regulation model
Q1	02:39	Play 833 ↗	71.1%	—	Regulation model
Q1	02:31	Play 853 ↗	70.1%	—	Regulation model
Q1	01:52	Play 878 ↗	70.2%	—	Regulation model
Q1	01:20	Play 900 ↗	70.5%	—	Regulation model
Q1	00:36	Play 925 ↗	68.7%	—	Regulation model
Q1	00:00	Play 947 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	15:00	Play 967 ↗	67.4%	—	Regulation model
Q2	14:20	Play 994 ↗	66.8%	—	Regulation model
Q2	13:59	Play 1018 ↗	66.0%	—	Regulation model
Q2	13:17	Play 1038 ↗	67.3%	—	Regulation model
Q2	12:33	Play 1060 ↗	68.9%	—	Regulation model
Q2	12:30	Play 1083 ↗	72.3%	—	Regulation model
Q2	12:30	Play 1111 ↗	73.4%	—	Regulation model
Q2	12:17	Play 1148 ↗	70.1%	—	Regulation model
Q2	11:36	Play 1177 ↗	68.6%	—	Regulation model
Q2	10:50	Play 1199 ↗	67.7%	—	Regulation model
Q2	10:48	Play 1222 ↗	62.6%	—	Regulation model
Q2	10:35	Play 1248 ↗	66.1%	—	Regulation model
Q2	10:06	Play 1273 ↗	60.7%	—	Regulation model
Q2	09:31	Play 1295 ↗	62.3%	—	Regulation model
Q2	08:51	Play 1324 ↗	65.1%	—	Regulation model
Q2	08:08	Play 1349 ↗	68.5%	—	Regulation model
Q2	08:04	Play 1369 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	07:59	Play 1399 ↗	66.4%	—	Regulation model
Q2	07:16	Play 1419 ↗	64.0%	—	Regulation model
Q2	06:30	Play 1444 ↗	65.6%	—	Regulation model
Q2	05:55	Play 1474 ↗	73.0%	—	Regulation model
Q2	05:18	Play 1496 ↗	72.0%	—	Regulation model
Q2	04:34	Play 1518 ↗	69.4%	—	Regulation model
Q2	03:48	Play 1543 ↗	76.9%	—	Regulation model
Q2	03:03	Play 1565 ↗	75.5%	—	Regulation model
Q2	02:29	Play 1590 ↗	74.1%	—	Regulation model
Q2	02:24	Play 1616 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	02:24	Play 1631 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	02:17	Play 1672 ↗	81.7%	—	Regulation model
Q2	02:00	Play 1697 ↗	80.6%	—	Regulation model
Q2	01:52	Play 1734 ↗	81.8%	—	Regulation model
Q2	01:15	Play 1759 ↗	80.3%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:43	Play 1781 ↗	77.9%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:38	Play 1815 ↗	78.8%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:33	Play 1838 ↗	80.1%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:26	Play 1875 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:26	Play 1863 ↗	82.8%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:19	Play 1900 ↗	77.0%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:12	Play 1935 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:12	Play 1923 ↗	78.1%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:06	Play 1965 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:06	Play 1972 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:06	Play 1953 ↗	80.7%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:06	Play 1991 ↗	82.2%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:03	Play 2025 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:03	Play 2013 ↗	84.9%	—	Regulation model
Q2	00:00	Play 2040 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q3	15:00	Play 2058 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q3	15:00	Play 2075 ↗	73.6%	—	Regulation model
Q3	14:17	Play 2097 ↗	73.8%	—	Regulation model
Q3	14:06	Play 2121 ↗	72.2%	—	Regulation model
Q3	13:23	Play 2141 ↗	70.1%	—	Regulation model
Q3	12:39	Play 2166 ↗	75.8%	—	Regulation model
Q3	12:06	Play 2193 ↗	79.3%	—	Regulation model
Q3	11:33	Play 2215 ↗	78.9%	—	Regulation model
Q3	10:49	Play 2237 ↗	85.4%	—	Regulation model
Q3	10:04	Play 2259 ↗	83.8%	—	Regulation model
Q3	09:59	Play 2284 ↗	82.9%	—	Regulation model
Q3	09:55	Play 2307 ↗	80.0%	—	Regulation model
Q3	09:51	Play 2334 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q3	09:44	Play 2357 ↗	80.2%	—	Regulation model
Q3	09:09	Play 2387 ↗	81.1%	—	Regulation model
Q3	08:27	Play 2412 ↗	81.1%	—	Regulation model
Q3	07:45	Play 2439 ↗	73.0%	—	Regulation model
Q3	07:01	Play 2461 ↗	74.3%	—	Regulation model
Q3	06:53	Play 2487 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q3	06:53	Play 2505 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q3	06:45	Play 2535 ↗	71.2%	—	Regulation model
Q3	06:06	Play 2560 ↗	69.4%	—	Regulation model
Q3	05:41	Play 2593 ↗	73.2%	—	Regulation model
Q3	05:09	Play 2618 ↗	73.2%	—	Regulation model
Q3	04:32	Play 2640 ↗	74.0%	—	Regulation model
Q3	03:47	Play 2667 ↗	68.8%	—	Regulation model
Q3	03:39	Play 2694 ↗	56.0%	—	Regulation model
Q3	02:58	Play 2771 ↗	56.0%	—	Regulation model
Q3	02:14	Play 2793 ↗	59.0%	—	Regulation model
Q3	01:38	Play 2813 ↗	66.9%	—	Regulation model
Q3	01:29	Play 2851 ↗	70.1%	—	Regulation model
Q3	00:49	Play 2873 ↗	69.0%	—	Regulation model
Q3	00:05	Play 2895 ↗	69.2%	—	Regulation model
Q3	00:00	Play 2920 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	15:00	Play 2940 ↗	72.0%	—	Regulation model
Q4	14:26	Play 2965 ↗	72.7%	—	Regulation model
Q4	13:38	Play 2987 ↗	68.5%	—	Regulation model
Q4	13:06	Play 3017 ↗	75.1%	—	Regulation model
Q4	12:24	Play 3047 ↗	70.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	11:35	Play 3069 ↗	68.7%	—	Regulation model
Q4	10:51	Play 3094 ↗	77.9%	—	Regulation model
Q4	10:12	Play 3116 ↗	77.7%	—	Regulation model
Q4	09:32	Play 3141 ↗	78.2%	—	Regulation model
Q4	08:48	Play 3168 ↗	81.7%	—	Regulation model
Q4	08:15	Play 3195 ↗	81.6%	—	Regulation model
Q4	08:11	Play 3229 ↗	81.9%	—	Regulation model
Q4	08:06	Play 3252 ↗	79.1%	—	Regulation model
Q4	08:03	Play 3272 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	07:57	Play 3302 ↗	74.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	07:16	Play 3324 ↗	75.6%	—	Regulation model
Q4	06:35	Play 3346 ↗	77.0%	—	Regulation model
Q4	06:30	Play 3369 ↗	82.6%	—	Regulation model
Q4	06:23	Play 3389 ↗	81.9%	—	Regulation model
Q4	06:18	Play 3419 ↗	81.3%	—	Regulation model
Q4	06:15	Play 3442 ↗	79.0%	—	Regulation model
Q4	05:37	Play 3472 ↗	85.9%	—	Regulation model
Q4	04:58	Play 3494 ↗	85.0%	—	Regulation model
Q4	04:12	Play 3519 ↗	88.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	03:27	Play 3544 ↗	90.6%	—	Regulation model
Q4	02:43	Play 3569 ↗	89.6%	—	Regulation model
Q4	02:38	Play 3603 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:38	Play 3591 ↗	88.9%	—	Regulation model
Q4	02:35	Play 3621 ↗	84.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	02:31	Play 3641 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:25	Play 3671 ↗	93.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	02:17	Play 3704 ↗	94.7%	—	Regulation model
Q4	02:05	Play 3740 ↗	92.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	02:00	Play 3765 ↗	89.6%	—	Regulation model
Q4	01:38	Play 3797 ↗	89.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	01:17	Play 3822 ↗	88.9%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:52	Play 3847 ↗	89.7%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:44	Play 3887 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:44	Play 3875 ↗	80.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:40	Play 3916 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:40	Play 3908 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:40	Play 3928 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:34	Play 3954 ↗	64.8%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:27	Play 3991 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:27	Play 3979 ↗	63.5%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:19	Play 4031 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:19	Play 4019 ↗	54.5%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:13	Play 4068 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:13	Play 4056 ↗	58.5%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:08	Play 4086 ↗	52.0%	—	Regulation model
Q4	00:00	Play 4107 ↗	No estimate	—	State outside model coverage
OT	10:00	Play 4127 ↗	No estimate	—	Non scrimmage overtime entry
OT	09:53	Play 4155 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	09:11	Play 4177 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	08:26	Play 4199 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	07:46	Play 4224 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	07:05	Play 4248 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	06:19	Play 4273 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	05:35	Play 4298 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	04:54	Play 4320 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	04:10	Play 4344 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	04:10	Play 4368 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	03:26	Play 4390 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	03:19	Play 4420 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	03:12	Play 4447 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	03:06	Play 4484 ↗	No estimate	—	Missing overtime possession
OT	03:06	Play 4472 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	03:01	Play 4513 ↗	No estimate	—	Missing overtime possession
OT	03:01	Play 4501 ↗	No estimate	—	Insufficient current rule opening games
OT	02:57	Play 4531 ↗	No estimate	—	Unsupported overtime try
OT	02:57	Play 4546 ↗	No estimate	—	Unsupported touchdown response phase
OT	02:50	Play 4572 ↗	No estimate	—	Unsupported touchdown response phase
OT	02:11	Play 4597 ↗	No estimate	—	Unsupported touchdown response phase
OT	02:05	Play 4624 ↗	0.0%	0.0%	Recorded final outcome

Coaching decisions

Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.

BALFourth down decision cost2.33 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43522/0.41191/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:286

ATLFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49809/ NA/0.51895
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:415

BALFourth down decision cost2.35 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28712/0.23813/0.26361
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:717

ATLFourth down decision cost0.58 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71951/ NA/0.71376
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:833

BALFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:1083

BALFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:1111

ATLFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Outside fourth down domain

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:1222

BALFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30023/0.30424/0.26278
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:1349

BALFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14575/0.20316/0.14198
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:2013

ATLFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79348/0.80383/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:2307

ATLFourth down decision cost0 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69539/0.67162/0.65599
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:2667

BALFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:2813

ATLFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69035/0.72817/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:3252

BALFourth down decision cost4 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19845/ NA/0.15843
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:3369

ATLFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85055/0.88352/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:3621

ATLFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Outside fourth down domain

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:4086

Fumble recoveries

Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.

ATLFumble recoveries above expectation0.87 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.

Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:486 Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:3979

BALFumble recoveries above expectation-0.87 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:486 Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:3979

Kicking

Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.

ATLField goal points above expectation0.75 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:2307 Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:3252 Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:3621

BALField goal points above expectation1.47 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:286 Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:1349 Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:2013

ATLExtra point points above expectation0.08 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON45th percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:528 Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:1616

BALExtra point points above expectation0.04 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient tail support

Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_05_BAL_ATL:4531

Penalty patterns

Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.

BALPresnap called penalties above expectation0.44 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

BALOffensive holding called penalties above expectation1.62 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 3 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

BALDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.5 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

BALPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.58 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ATLPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.28 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ATLOffensive holding called penalties above expectation0.93 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ATLDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.43 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ATLPass interference called penalties above expectation0.55 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Q212:30Penalty · BAL(12:30) (Punt formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 45 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1083Link to event

Observed ruling consequence ATL

1.09 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: open
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 8
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 60
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -4
Game seconds remaining: 2550
Half seconds remaining: 750
Quarter seconds remaining: 750
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: open
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 3
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 55
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -4
Game seconds remaining: 2550
Half seconds remaining: 750
Quarter seconds remaining: 750
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence ATL

0.42 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: open
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 8
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 60
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -4
Game seconds remaining: 2550
Half seconds remaining: 750
Quarter seconds remaining: 750
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: open
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 3
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 55
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -4
Game seconds remaining: 2550
Half seconds remaining: 750
Quarter seconds remaining: 750
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.

Fourth down decision cost BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q208:08Kick · BAL(8:08) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

Not reviewedPlay 1349Link to event

Fourth down decision cost BAL

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 7
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 0.814635252158573
Yardline 100: 33
Elapsed share: 0.3644444444444445
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 20.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -3.5
Original posteam: BAL
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: -4
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 2288
Half seconds remaining: 488
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 488
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.3042376892912066

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30023/0.30424/0.26278
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation BAL

1.47 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q200:03Kick · BAL(:03) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

Not reviewedPlay 2013Link to event

Fourth down decision cost BAL

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 17
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 0.4752550374116499
Yardline 100: 33
Elapsed share: 0.4991666666666666
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 20.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -3.5
Original posteam: BAL
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: -8
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1803
Half seconds remaining: 3
Away timeouts remaining: 0
Home timeouts remaining: 1
Quarter seconds remaining: 3
Defteam timeouts remaining: 1
Posteam timeouts remaining: 0

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.2031633936202427

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14575/0.20316/0.14198
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation BAL

1.47 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q309:55Kick · ATL(9:55) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Not reviewedPlay 2307Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ATL

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: ATL
Ydstogo: 5
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 0.3375215494811019
Yardline 100: 5
Elapsed share: 0.5847222222222223
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 3.5
Original posteam: ATL
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 5
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1495
Half seconds remaining: 1495
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 595
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.8038270043764645

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79348/0.80383/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation ATL

0.75 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q408:06Kick · ATL(8:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Not reviewedPlay 3252Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ATL

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: ATL
Ydstogo: 9
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 0.110004167064287
Yardline 100: 16
Elapsed share: 0.865
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 3.5
Original posteam: ATL
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 2
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 486
Half seconds remaining: 486
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 486
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.7281740546674942

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69035/0.72817/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation ATL

0.75 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q402:35Kick · ATL(2:35) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Not reviewedPlay 3621Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ATL

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: ATL
Ydstogo: 5
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 0.0761526950234927
Yardline 100: 30
Elapsed share: 0.9569444444444445
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 3.5
Original posteam: ATL
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 5
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 155
Half seconds remaining: 155
Away timeouts remaining: 2
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 155
Defteam timeouts remaining: 2
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.8835237277930434

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85055/0.88352/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation ATL

0.75 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Show the remaining 19 recorded events

Q110:57Fourth down · BAL(10:57) (Shotgun) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle to ATL 3 for -2 yards (95-G.Dexter, 94-L.London). Penalty on BAL, Illegal Formation, declined.

Not reviewedPlay 226Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q110:30Kick · BAL(10:30) 33-T.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

Not reviewedPlay 286Link to event

Fourth down decision cost BAL

2.33 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: BAL
Ydstogo: 3
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 2.592863772386012
Yardline 100: 3
Elapsed share: 0.075
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 20.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -3.5
Original posteam: BAL
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 0
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 3330
Half seconds remaining: 1530
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 630
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.4352172282435846

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43522/0.41191/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation BAL

1.47 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q110:27Penalty · ATL33-T.Loop kicks 58 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 7. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 32 for 25 yards (24-M.Starks; 97-E.Burke). PENALTY on ATL-34-J.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27.

Not reviewedPlay 313Link to event

Observed ruling consequence ATL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q108:14Fumble · BAL(8:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Not reviewedPlay 486Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation ATL

0.87 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL

-0.87 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q108:03Kick · ATL6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Not reviewedPlay 528Link to event

Extra point points above expectation ATL

0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q212:30Penalty · BAL(12:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 54 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 18 for 12 yards (46-N.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6.

Not reviewedPlay 1111Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q210:48Fourth down · ATL(10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-L.Wester to BAL 47 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 29-S.Brown).

Not reviewedPlay 1222Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ATL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q202:24Kick · ATL6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Not reviewedPlay 1616Link to event

Extra point points above expectation ATL

0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q202:24Penalty · BAL6-N.Folk kicks 64 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 1. 26-R.Ali to BAL 37 for 36 yards (28-M.Ford; 23-D.Hellams). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30.

Not reviewedPlay 1631Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q200:43Penalty · BAL(:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [99-C.Thomas]. PENALTY on BAL-79-R.Stanley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 44 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1781Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q200:06Penalty · BAL(:06) PENALTY on BAL-7-R.Bateman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 26 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1953Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q303:47Fourth down · ATL(3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.

Not reviewedPlay 2667Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ATL

0 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: ATL
Ydstogo: 2
Outdoors: 0
Away team: BAL
Home team: ATL
Away total: 20.5
Home total: 24
Total line: 44.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: 3.5
Spread time: 0.2242452837942082
Yardline 100: 39
Elapsed share: 0.6869444444444445
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko

Q301:38Penalty · BAL(1:38) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 37 for 17 yards (39-K.Jackson). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

Not reviewedPlay 2813Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q402:25Penalty · BAL(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman; 95-G.Dexter). PENALTY on BAL-51-E.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3671Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q402:17Penalty · BAL(2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on ATL-31-X.Watts, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3704Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q400:27Fumble · ATL(:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-64-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-9-M.Penix was injured during the play.

Not reviewedPlay 3979Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation ATL

0.87 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL

-0.87 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q400:08Fourth down · ATL(:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

Not reviewedPlay 4086Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ATL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q504:10Penalty · BAL(4:10) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 4344Link to event

Observed ruling consequence BAL

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q502:57Kick · BAL33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. ** Injury Update: BAL-98-T.Jones has returned to the game.

Not reviewedPlay 4531Link to event

Extra point points above expectation BAL

0.04 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

SHA-256 110fe679e6fa9c7b61c836e6548948cdedcd33ef279d8ae593c4ed8f12f413c5

Model versions and technical record

nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.

nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.

fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1

Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons

Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.

spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1

Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons

Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.

game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5

Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only

Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.

game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1

Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.

Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.

Analysis input hash: fb0bdad282199f7ac40c5c11d83da9ad9a5d0fa72391de7d436640630575ceec

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Fair

Result versus box score

Penalty pattern

Result versus spread

Penalties extending one drive

Do you agree with this rating?

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Spread vs. result

Did the score fit the performance?

Game momentum

Impact of officiating decisions

Fan feedback

Atlanta Falcons · Play 2667

Baltimore Ravens · Play 3671

Baltimore Ravens · Play 3704

Source plays 194

Fourth down decision cost BAL

Actual state

Automatic analysis

Source data

Data sources

football-zebras

ftn-via-nflverse

nflverse-schedules

Were the penalties unusual?

The referee: Brad Allen

How the result took shape

Coaching decisions

Fumble recoveries

Kicking

Player execution

Penalty patterns

Baltimore Ravens · Play 4344

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost BAL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Observed ruling consequence ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Observed ruling consequence ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost BAL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Observed ruling consequence ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ATL

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost BAL

Actual state

Supported alternative