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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Atlanta Falcons by 3.5
Final margin Baltimore Ravens by 7
Difference 10.5 points
Baltimore Ravens covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,969 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (40.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin BAL by 7
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Brad Allen Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.4 accepted penalties for 89.2 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Atlanta Falcons · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Baltimore Ravens · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates · circle = recorded result
Atlanta Falcons chance to win during the game 140 preplay estimates across 194 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 53 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The shaded region marks overtime. A separate circle identifies the recorded final outcome, not a forecast. All recorded entries appear in the table below. OVERTIME Limited data 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 03:47 Recorded game event
Atlanta Falcons · Play 2667 (3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 12.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:25 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 3671 (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman; 95-G.Dexter). PENALTY on BAL-51-E.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:17 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 3704 (2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on ATL-31-X.Watts, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 194 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 194 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 16-J.Bailey kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35. Play 39 16-J.Bailey kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.
Q115:00 (15:00) 4-Z.Flowers right end to BAL 48 for 13 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 56 (15:00) 4-Z.Flowers right end to BAL 48 for 13 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q114:23 (14:23) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to ATL 45 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson). Play 78 (14:23) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to ATL 45 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson).
Q113:48 (13:48) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 43-J.Hill. Play 100 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 31 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q406:30 Fourth down · BAL (6:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 4 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.09887452092439925
Yardline 100 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (5) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. overtime_model_experimental: Overtime estimates are partial, empirical and uncalibrated; unavailable states remain gaps. Terminal values are observed results, not predictions. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Team penalties per game 6 / 49.9 yd 4.3 / 30 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.3 / 40.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.1 / 48.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Brad Allen; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. Recorded final result: Baltimore Ravens won. This point is an observation, not a forecast. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 140 model estimates across 194 recorded game entries, plus 1 recorded final result.
53 entries have no estimate : 22 overtime entries and 31 other recorded states.
The overtime model requires at least 20 comparable prior games with matching possession rules. Sparse or ambiguous states stay unrated. It estimates wins, losses and ties separately; see coverage and limits .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The final circle shows the recorded outcome. A tied game has 0% win and 100% tie at that point.
View all chart data (194 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Observed ruling consequence -0.77 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Ruling expected points consequence -0.64 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Observed ruling consequence 1.09 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Ruling expected points consequence 0.42 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Observed ruling consequence -1.6 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Ruling expected points consequence -0.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BAL Fourth down decision cost 2.33 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43522/0.41191/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49809/ NA/0.51895 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 2.35 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28712/0.23813/0.26361 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0.58 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71951/ NA/0.71376 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30023/0.30424/0.26278 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14575/0.20316/0.14198 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79348/0.80383/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69539/0.67162/0.65599 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69035/0.72817/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 4 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19845/ NA/0.15843 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85055/0.88352/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
ATL Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.87 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
BAL Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.87 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
ATL Field goal points above expectation 0.75 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BAL Field goal points above expectation 1.47 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
ATL Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
BAL Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
ATL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 194 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
BAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 194 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
BAL Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.62 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.5 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ATL Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.28 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ATL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.93 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ATL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ATL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.55 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.
Q5 · 04:10 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 4344 (4:10) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. (13:48) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 43-J.Hill.
Q113:44 (13:44) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left tackle to ATL 24 for 21 yards (21-M.Hughes). Play 135 (13:44) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left tackle to ATL 24 for 21 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Q113:02 (13:02) 22-D.Henry left tackle to ATL 19 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 157 (13:02) 22-D.Henry left tackle to ATL 19 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q112:23 (12:23) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 8 for 11 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 179 (12:23) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 8 for 11 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q111:39 (11:39) 22-D.Henry left end to ATL 1 for 7 yards (21-M.Hughes). Play 204 (11:39) 22-D.Henry left end to ATL 1 for 7 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Q110:57 (10:57) (Shotgun) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle to ATL 3 for -2 yards (95-G.Dexter, 94-L.London). Penalty on BAL, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 226 (10:57) (Shotgun) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle to ATL 3 for -2 yards (95-G.Dexter, 94-L.London). Penalty on BAL, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q110:36 (10:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews. Play 263 (10:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews.
Q110:30 (10:30) 33-T.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 286 (10:30) 33-T.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q110:27 33-T.Loop kicks 58 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 7. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 32 for 25 yards (24-M.Starks; 97-E.Burke). PENALTY on ATL-34-J.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27. Play 313 33-T.Loop kicks 58 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 7. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 32 for 25 yards (24-M.Starks; 97-E.Burke). PENALTY on ATL-34-J.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27.
Q110:21 (10:21) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep middle to 5-D.London. Play 347 (10:21) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep middle to 5-D.London.
Q110:15 (10:15) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 21 for 4 yards (95-T.Robinson; 0-R.Smith). Play 370 (10:15) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 21 for 4 yards (95-T.Robinson; 0-R.Smith).
Q109:46 (9:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 7-Bi.Robinson (95-T.Robinson). Play 392 (9:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 7-Bi.Robinson (95-T.Robinson).
Q109:41 (9:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester. Play 415 (9:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.
Q109:33 (9:33) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 34 for 11 yards (31-X.Watts; 99-C.Thomas). Play 435 (9:33) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 34 for 11 yards (31-X.Watts; 99-C.Thomas).
Q108:59 (8:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 25 for -9 yards (51-J.Ivey). Play 466 (8:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 25 for -9 yards (51-J.Ivey).
Q108:14 (8:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 486 (8:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q108:03 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 528 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q108:03 16-J.Bailey kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35. Play 543 16-J.Bailey kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.
Q108:03 (8:03) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 44 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo; 3-J.Bates). Play 567 (8:03) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 44 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo; 3-J.Bates).
Q107:30 (7:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 44 for no gain (94-L.London). BAL-70-R.Rosengarten was injured during the play. Play 589 (7:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 44 for no gain (94-L.London). BAL-70-R.Rosengarten was injured during the play.
Q106:54 (6:54) 5-T.Huntley up the middle to BAL 46 for 2 yards (94-L.London; 0-D.Deablo). Play 616 (6:54) 5-T.Huntley up the middle to BAL 46 for 2 yards (94-L.London; 0-D.Deablo).
Q106:15 (6:15) 62-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 22-D.Henry (53-K.Daniels). Play 645 (6:15) 62-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 22-D.Henry (53-K.Daniels).
Q106:10 (6:10) 43-J.Hill right end to ATL 49 for 5 yards (29-S.Brown). ** Injury Update: BAL-70-R.Rosengarten has returned to the game. Play 670 (6:10) 43-J.Hill right end to ATL 49 for 5 yards (29-S.Brown). ** Injury Update: BAL-70-R.Rosengarten has returned to the game.
Q105:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right guard to ATL 49 for no gain (54-B.Dorlus; 56-H.Perkins). Play 692 (5:30) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right guard to ATL 49 for no gain (54-B.Dorlus; 56-H.Perkins).
Q104:53 (4:53) 30-R.Eckley punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. Play 717 (4:53) 30-R.Eckley punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
Q104:47 (4:47) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 32 for 20 yards (0-R.Smith). Play 737 (4:47) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 32 for 20 yards (0-R.Smith).
Q104:07 (4:07) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 35 for 3 yards (9-Z.Young). Play 766 (4:07) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 35 for 3 yards (9-Z.Young).
Q103:28 (3:28) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 5-D.London. Play 788 (3:28) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 5-D.London.
Q103:24 (3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles right end to ATL 40 for 5 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 811 (3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles right end to ATL 40 for 5 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q102:39 (2:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BAL 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester. Play 833 (2:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BAL 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.
Q102:31 (2:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 20 for 6 yards (0-D.Deablo). Play 853 (2:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 20 for 6 yards (0-D.Deablo).
Q101:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to BAL 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London; 96-Z.Harrison). Play 878 (1:52) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to BAL 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London; 96-Z.Harrison).
Q101:20 (1:20) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 81-D.Walker to BAL 25 for 2 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 900 (1:20) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 81-D.Walker to BAL 25 for 2 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q100:36 (:36) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 34 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts; 21-M.Hughes). Play 925 (:36) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 34 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts; 21-M.Hughes).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 947 Q215:00 (15:00) 22-D.Henry right guard to BAL 38 for 4 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 967 (15:00) 22-D.Henry right guard to BAL 38 for 4 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q214:20 (14:20) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 38 - No Play. Play 994 (14:20) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 38 - No Play.
Q213:59 (13:59) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 43 for 0 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 1018 (13:59) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 43 for 0 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q213:17 (13:17) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 45 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo; 21-M.Hughes). Play 1038 (13:17) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 45 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo; 21-M.Hughes).
Q212:33 (12:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers. Play 1060 (12:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q212:30 (12:30) (Punt formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 45 - No Play. Play 1083 (12:30) (Punt formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 45 - No Play.
Q212:30 (12:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 54 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 18 for 12 yards (46-N.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6. Play 1111 (12:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 54 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 18 for 12 yards (46-N.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6.
Q212:17 (12:17) 15-Br.Robinson left guard to ATL 5 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington). Play 1148 (12:17) 15-Br.Robinson left guard to ATL 5 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington).
Q211:36 (11:36) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to ATL 8 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith). Play 1177 (11:36) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to ATL 8 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith).
Q210:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London. Play 1199 (10:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.
Q210:48 (10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-L.Wester to BAL 47 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 29-S.Brown). Play 1222 (10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-L.Wester to BAL 47 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 29-S.Brown).
Q210:35 (10:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to ATL 36 for 17 yards (0-D.Deablo; 96-Z.Harrison). Play 1248 (10:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to ATL 36 for 17 yards (0-D.Deablo; 96-Z.Harrison).
Q210:06 (10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 34 for 2 yards (96-Z.Harrison; 99-C.Thomas). Play 1273 (10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 34 for 2 yards (96-Z.Harrison; 99-C.Thomas).
Q209:31 (9:31) 4-Z.Flowers sacked at ATL 36 for -2 yards (sack split by 99-C.Thomas and 96-Z.Harrison). Play 1295 (9:31) 4-Z.Flowers sacked at ATL 36 for -2 yards (sack split by 99-C.Thomas and 96-Z.Harrison).
Q208:51 (8:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to ATL 33 for 3 yards (95-G.Dexter). Play 1324 (8:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to ATL 33 for 3 yards (95-G.Dexter).
Q208:08 (8:08) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 1349 (8:08) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q208:04 33-T.Loop kicks 59 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 6. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 22 for 16 yards (26-R.Ali). Play 1369 33-T.Loop kicks 59 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 6. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 22 for 16 yards (26-R.Ali).
Q207:59 (7:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 16 for -6 yards (15-M.Green). Play 1399 (7:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 16 for -6 yards (15-M.Green).
Q207:16 (7:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 29 for 13 yards (95-T.Robinson). Play 1419 (7:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 29 for 13 yards (95-T.Robinson).
Q206:30 (6:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London ran ob at BAL 46 for 25 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 1444 (6:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London ran ob at BAL 46 for 25 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q205:55 (5:55) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to BAL 42 for 4 yards (97-E.Burke). Play 1474 (5:55) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to BAL 42 for 4 yards (97-E.Burke).
Q205:18 (5:18) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to BAL 42 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike). Play 1496 (5:18) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to BAL 42 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).
Q204:34 (4:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 4-J.Dotson to BAL 6 for 36 yards (29-C.Rivers). Play 1518 (4:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 4-J.Dotson to BAL 6 for 36 yards (29-C.Rivers).
Q203:48 (3:48) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to BAL 9 for -3 yards (24-M.Starks, 9-Z.Young). Play 1543 (3:48) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to BAL 9 for -3 yards (24-M.Starks, 9-Z.Young).
Q203:03 (3:03) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 7-Bi.Robinson to BAL 5 for 4 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 1565 (3:03) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 7-Bi.Robinson to BAL 5 for 4 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q202:29 (2:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1590 (2:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q202:24 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 1616 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q202:24 6-N.Folk kicks 64 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 1. 26-R.Ali to BAL 37 for 36 yards (28-M.Ford; 23-D.Hellams). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30. Play 1631 6-N.Folk kicks 64 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 1. 26-R.Ali to BAL 37 for 36 yards (28-M.Ford; 23-D.Hellams). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30.
Q202:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 12 yards (3-J.Bates). Play 1672 (2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 12 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 34 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman) [99-C.Thomas]. Play 1697 (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 34 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman) [99-C.Thomas].
Q201:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 41 for 7 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 1734 (1:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 41 for 7 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q201:15 (1:15) 5-T.Huntley up the middle to ATL 44 for 15 yards (3-J.Bates). Play 1759 (1:15) 5-T.Huntley up the middle to ATL 44 for 15 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q200:43 (:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [99-C.Thomas]. PENALTY on BAL-79-R.Stanley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 44 - No Play. Play 1781 (:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [99-C.Thomas]. PENALTY on BAL-79-R.Stanley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 44 - No Play.
Q200:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [92-M.Smith]. Play 1815 (:38) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [92-M.Smith].
Q200:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 85-J.Cuevas to ATL 45 for 9 yards (26-C.Henderson; 33-B.Bowman). Play 1838 (:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 85-J.Cuevas to ATL 45 for 9 yards (26-C.Henderson; 33-B.Bowman).
Q200:26 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:26. Play 1875 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:26.
Q200:26 (:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman ran ob at ATL 26 for 19 yards. Play 1863 (:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman ran ob at ATL 26 for 19 yards.
Q200:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 43-J.Hill. Play 1900 (:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 43-J.Hill.
Q200:12 Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:12. Play 1935 Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:12.
Q200:12 (:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 7-R.Bateman. Play 1923 (:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 7-R.Bateman.
Q200:06 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:06. Play 1965 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:06.
Q200:06 Timeout #2 by ATL at 00:06. Play 1972 Timeout #2 by ATL at 00:06.
Q200:06 (:06) PENALTY on BAL-7-R.Bateman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 26 - No Play. Play 1953 (:06) PENALTY on BAL-7-R.Bateman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 26 - No Play.
Q200:06 (:06) 5-T.Huntley kneels to ATL 33 for -2 yards. Play 1991 (:06) 5-T.Huntley kneels to ATL 33 for -2 yards.
Q200:03 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:03. Play 2025 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:03.
Q200:03 (:03) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 2013 (:03) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2040 Q315:00 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ATL 35. Play 2058 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ATL 35.
Q315:00 (15:00) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to ATL 40 for 5 yards (0-R.Smith). Play 2075 (15:00) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to ATL 40 for 5 yards (0-R.Smith).
Q314:17 (14:17) PENALTY on ATL-70-J.Matthews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play. Play 2097 (14:17) PENALTY on ATL-70-J.Matthews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.
Q314:06 (14:06) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 34 for -1 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 2121 (14:06) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 34 for -1 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q313:23 (13:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 47 for 13 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 2141 (13:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 47 for 13 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q312:39 (12:39) 7-Bi.Robinson left end pushed ob at BAL 44 for 9 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 2166 (12:39) 7-Bi.Robinson left end pushed ob at BAL 44 for 9 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q312:06 (12:06) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to BAL 41 for 3 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 2193 (12:06) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to BAL 41 for 3 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q311:33 (11:33) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to BAL 3 for 38 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 2215 (11:33) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to BAL 3 for 38 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q310:49 (10:49) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to BAL 5 for -2 yards (24-M.Starks, 44-M.Humphrey). Play 2237 (10:49) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to BAL 5 for -2 yards (24-M.Starks, 44-M.Humphrey).
Q310:04 (10:04) 70-J.Matthews reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 70-J.Matthews. Play 2259 (10:04) 70-J.Matthews reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 70-J.Matthews.
Q309:59 (9:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson. Play 2284 (9:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson.
Q309:55 (9:55) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 2307 (9:55) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q309:51 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 5. 26-R.Ali to BAL 26 for 21 yards (42-J.Woods). ** Injury Update: BAL-88-M.Hibner has returned to the game. Play 2334 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 5. 26-R.Ali to BAL 26 for 21 yards (42-J.Woods). ** Injury Update: BAL-88-M.Hibner has returned to the game.
Q309:44 (9:44) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at BAL 29 for 3 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 2357 (9:44) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at BAL 29 for 3 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q309:09 (9:09) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 35 for 6 yards (99-C.Thomas) [52-S.Ebukam]. Play 2387 (9:09) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 35 for 6 yards (99-C.Thomas) [52-S.Ebukam].
Q308:27 (8:27) 43-J.Hill up the middle pushed ob at ATL 18 for 47 yards (12-Av.Terrell). Play 2412 (8:27) 43-J.Hill up the middle pushed ob at ATL 18 for 47 yards (12-Av.Terrell).
Q307:45 (7:45) 22-D.Henry left end to ATL 18 for no gain (95-G.Dexter). Play 2439 (7:45) 22-D.Henry left end to ATL 18 for no gain (95-G.Dexter).
Q307:01 (7:01) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2461 (7:01) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q306:53 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-T.Huntley pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 2487 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-T.Huntley pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q306:53 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 42 for 40 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 2505 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 42 for 40 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q306:45 (6:45) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 42 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton). BAL-14-K.Hamilton was injured during the play. Play 2535 (6:45) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 42 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton). BAL-14-K.Hamilton was injured during the play.
Q306:06 (6:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 7-Bi.Robinson to BAL 47 for 11 yards (0-R.Smith; 24-M.Starks). Play 2560 (6:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 7-Bi.Robinson to BAL 47 for 11 yards (0-R.Smith; 24-M.Starks).
Q305:41 (5:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson pushed ob at BAL 44 for 3 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 2593 (5:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson pushed ob at BAL 44 for 3 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q305:09 (5:09) 15-Br.Robinson right guard to BAL 40 for 4 yards (29-C.Rivers). Play 2618 (5:09) 15-Br.Robinson right guard to BAL 40 for 4 yards (29-C.Rivers).
Q304:32 (4:32) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to BAL 39 for 1 yard (24-M.Starks; 32-T.Simpson). Play 2640 (4:32) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to BAL 39 for 1 yard (24-M.Starks; 32-T.Simpson).
Q303:47 (3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game. Play 2667 (3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.
Q303:39 (3:39) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 43 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo; 21-M.Hughes). Play 2694 (3:39) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 43 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo; 21-M.Hughes).
Q302:58 (2:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to BAL 45 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo). Play 2771 (2:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to BAL 45 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo).
Q302:14 (2:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 38 for -7 yards (52-S.Ebukam). Play 2793 (2:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 38 for -7 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
Q301:38 (1:38) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 37 for 17 yards (39-K.Jackson). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20. Play 2813 (1:38) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 37 for 17 yards (39-K.Jackson). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.
Q301:29 (1:29) 7-Bi.Robinson right guard to ATL 14 for 4 yards (98-T.Jones; 95-T.Robinson). Play 2851 (1:29) 7-Bi.Robinson right guard to ATL 14 for 4 yards (98-T.Jones; 95-T.Robinson).
Q300:49 (:49) 15-Br.Robinson right guard to ATL 18 for 4 yards (95-T.Robinson). Play 2873 (:49) 15-Br.Robinson right guard to ATL 18 for 4 yards (95-T.Robinson).
Q300:05 (:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to ATL 32 for 14 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 2895 (:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to ATL 32 for 14 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 2920 Q415:00 (15:00) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 37 for 5 yards (93-C.Campbell). Play 2940 (15:00) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 37 for 5 yards (93-C.Campbell).
Q414:26 (14:26) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 32 for -5 yards (15-M.Green, 95-T.Robinson). Play 2965 (14:26) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 32 for -5 yards (15-M.Green, 95-T.Robinson).
Q413:38 (13:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London pushed ob at ATL 45 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 2987 (13:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London pushed ob at ATL 45 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q413:06 (13:06) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 37 for -8 yards (2-N.Wiggins). Play 3017 (13:06) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 37 for -8 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
Q412:24 (12:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to ATL 40 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 3047 (12:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to ATL 40 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q411:35 (11:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to BAL 41 for 19 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 3069 (11:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to BAL 41 for 19 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q410:51 (10:51) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to BAL 38 for 3 yards (40-T.Buchanan; 21-J.Hawkins). Play 3094 (10:51) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to BAL 38 for 3 yards (40-T.Buchanan; 21-J.Hawkins).
Q410:12 (10:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to BAL 32 for 6 yards (40-T.Buchanan). Play 3116 (10:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to BAL 32 for 6 yards (40-T.Buchanan).
Q409:32 (9:32) 72-M.Jerrell reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London to BAL 17 for 15 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 3141 (9:32) 72-M.Jerrell reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London to BAL 17 for 15 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q408:48 (8:48) 7-Bi.Robinson right guard to BAL 16 for 1 yard (0-R.Smith). Play 3168 (8:48) 7-Bi.Robinson right guard to BAL 16 for 1 yard (0-R.Smith).
Q408:15 (8:15) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep middle to 8-K.Pitts [92-N.Madubuike]. Play 3195 (8:15) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep middle to 8-K.Pitts [92-N.Madubuike].
Q408:11 (8:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 4-J.Dotson. Play 3229 (8:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 4-J.Dotson.
Q408:06 (8:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 3252 (8:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q408:03 6-N.Folk kicks 63 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 2. 10-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 30 yards (29-S.Brown). Play 3272 6-N.Folk kicks 63 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 2. 10-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 30 yards (29-S.Brown).
Q407:57 (7:57) 22-D.Henry right guard to BAL 36 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo). Play 3302 (7:57) 22-D.Henry right guard to BAL 36 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo).
Q407:16 (7:16) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 38 for 2 yards (51-J.Ivey; 53-K.Daniels). Play 3324 (7:16) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 38 for 2 yards (51-J.Ivey; 53-K.Daniels).
Q406:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Andrews (31-X.Watts). Play 3346 (6:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Andrews (31-X.Watts).
Q406:30 (6:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. Play 3369 (6:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.
Q406:23 (6:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 15-Br.Robinson [98-T.Jones]. Play 3389 (6:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 15-Br.Robinson [98-T.Jones].
Q406:18 (6:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 7-Bi.Robinson. Play 3419 (6:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 7-Bi.Robinson.
Q406:15 (6:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at ATL 41 for 23 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 0-R.Smith). Play 3442 (6:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at ATL 41 for 23 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 0-R.Smith).
Q405:37 (5:37) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 40 for -1 yards (93-C.Campbell, 24-M.Starks). Play 3472 (5:37) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 40 for -1 yards (93-C.Campbell, 24-M.Starks).
Q404:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to BAL 48 for 12 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 3494 (4:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to BAL 48 for 12 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q404:12 (4:12) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 35 for 13 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 3519 (4:12) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 35 for 13 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q403:27 (3:27) 7-Bi.Robinson right guard to BAL 32 for 3 yards (98-T.Jones). BAL-98-T.Jones was injured during the play. Play 3544 (3:27) 7-Bi.Robinson right guard to BAL 32 for 3 yards (98-T.Jones). BAL-98-T.Jones was injured during the play.
Q402:43 (2:43) 15-Br.Robinson left guard to BAL 30 for 2 yards (92-N.Madubuike; 32-T.Simpson). Play 3569 (2:43) 15-Br.Robinson left guard to BAL 30 for 2 yards (92-N.Madubuike; 32-T.Simpson).
Q402:38 Timeout #1 by BAL at 02:38. Play 3603 Timeout #1 by BAL at 02:38.
Q402:38 (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 7-Bi.Robinson. Play 3591 (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 7-Bi.Robinson.
Q402:35 (2:35) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 3621 (2:35) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q402:31 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 5. 10-L.Wester to BAL 29 for 24 yards (87-N.Muse). Play 3641 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 5. 10-L.Wester to BAL 29 for 24 yards (87-N.Muse).
Q402:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman; 95-G.Dexter). PENALTY on BAL-51-E.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play. Play 3671 (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman; 95-G.Dexter). PENALTY on BAL-51-E.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play.
Q402:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on ATL-31-X.Watts, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play. Play 3704 (2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on ATL-31-X.Watts, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.
Q402:05 (2:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 41 for 11 yards (21-M.Hughes). Play 3740 (2:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 41 for 11 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 37 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 3765 (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 37 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q401:38 (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 30 for 7 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 3797 (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 30 for 7 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q401:17 (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to ATL 27 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins). Play 3822 (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to ATL 27 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q400:52 (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 7 for 20 yards (31-X.Watts; 56-H.Perkins). ATL-21-M.Hughes was injured during the play. Play 3847 (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 7 for 20 yards (31-X.Watts; 56-H.Perkins). ATL-21-M.Hughes was injured during the play.
Q400:44 Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:44. Play 3887 Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:44.
Q400:44 (:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 81-D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3875 (:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 81-D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q400:40 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:40. Play 3916 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:40.
Q400:40 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-D.Henry rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. ** Injury Update: ATL-21-M.Hughes has returned to the game. Play 3908 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-D.Henry rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. ** Injury Update: ATL-21-M.Hughes has returned to the game.
Q400:40 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 23 for 21 yards (97-E.Burke; 26-R.Ali). Play 3928 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 23 for 21 yards (97-E.Burke; 26-R.Ali).
Q400:34 (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 4-J.Dotson to ATL 41 for 18 yards (2-N.Wiggins). Play 3954 (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 4-J.Dotson to ATL 41 for 18 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
Q400:27 Timeout #2 by ATL at 00:27. Play 3991 Timeout #2 by ATL at 00:27.
Q400:27 (:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-64-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-9-M.Penix was injured during the play. Play 3979 (:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-64-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-9-M.Penix was injured during the play.
Q400:19 Timeout #3 by ATL at 00:19. Play 4031 Timeout #3 by ATL at 00:19.
Q400:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson ran ob at ATL 45 for 14 yards (0-R.Smith). Play 4019 (:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson ran ob at ATL 45 for 14 yards (0-R.Smith).
Q400:13 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:13. Play 4068 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:13.
Q400:13 (:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: ATL-9-M.Penix has returned to the game. Play 4056 (:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: ATL-9-M.Penix has returned to the game.
Q400:08 (:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback. Play 4086 (:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
Q400:00 END QUARTER 4 Play 4107 Q510:00 6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 4. 10-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 28 yards (34-J.Robinson). Play 4127 6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 4. 10-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 28 yards (34-J.Robinson).
Q509:53 (9:53) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 41 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts; 12-Av.Terrell). Play 4155 (9:53) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 41 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts; 12-Av.Terrell).
Q509:11 (9:11) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 39 for -2 yards (95-G.Dexter). Play 4177 (9:11) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 39 for -2 yards (95-G.Dexter).
Q508:26 (8:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 49 for 10 yards (3-J.Bates). Play 4199 (8:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 49 for 10 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q507:46 (7:46) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end to ATL 48 for 3 yards (3-J.Bates). Play 4224 (7:46) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end to ATL 48 for 3 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q507:05 (7:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 47 for 1 yard (53-K.Daniels). Play 4248 (7:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 47 for 1 yard (53-K.Daniels).
Q506:19 (6:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 41 for 6 yards (0-D.Deablo). Play 4273 (6:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 41 for 6 yards (0-D.Deablo).
Q505:35 (5:35) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to ATL 39 for 2 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 4298 (5:35) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to ATL 39 for 2 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q504:54 (4:54) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard to ATL 28 for 11 yards (0-D.Deablo; 31-X.Watts). Play 4320 (4:54) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard to ATL 28 for 11 yards (0-D.Deablo; 31-X.Watts).
Q504:10 (4:10) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play. Play 4344 (4:10) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play.
Q504:10 (4:10) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 22 for 1 yard (51-J.Ivey; 94-L.London). Play 4368 (4:10) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 22 for 1 yard (51-J.Ivey; 94-L.London).
Q503:26 (3:26) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 7-R.Bateman pushed ob at ATL 17 for 5 yards (29-S.Brown). Play 4390 (3:26) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 7-R.Bateman pushed ob at ATL 17 for 5 yards (29-S.Brown).
Q503:19 (3:19) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at ATL 10 for 7 yards (0-D.Deablo; 3-J.Bates). Play 4420 (3:19) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at ATL 10 for 7 yards (0-D.Deablo; 3-J.Bates).
Q503:12 (3:12) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to ATL 4 for 6 yards (48-B.Trice; 12-Av.Terrell). Play 4447 (3:12) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to ATL 4 for 6 yards (48-B.Trice; 12-Av.Terrell).
Q503:06 Timeout #1 by ATL at 03:06. Play 4484 Timeout #1 by ATL at 03:06.
Q503:06 (3:06) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 1 for 3 yards (96-Z.Harrison; 52-S.Ebukam). Play 4472 (3:06) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 1 for 3 yards (96-Z.Harrison; 52-S.Ebukam).
Q503:01 Timeout #2 by ATL at 03:01. Play 4513 Timeout #2 by ATL at 03:01.
Q503:01 (3:01) 5-T.Huntley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4501 (3:01) 5-T.Huntley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q502:57 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. ** Injury Update: BAL-98-T.Jones has returned to the game. Play 4531 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. ** Injury Update: BAL-98-T.Jones has returned to the game.
Q502:57 33-T.Loop kicks 64 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 1. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 28 for 27 yards (26-R.Ali). Play 4546 33-T.Loop kicks 64 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 1. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 28 for 27 yards (26-R.Ali).
Q502:50 (2:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 5-D.London to ATL 48 for 20 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 4572 (2:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 5-D.London to ATL 48 for 20 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q502:11 (2:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.London). Play 4597 (2:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
62
Elapsed share 0.8916666666666667
Game seconds remaining 390
Half seconds remaining 390
Quarter seconds remaining 390
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1984526286991547 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19845/ NA/0.15843 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:53 Fourth down · BAL (4:53) 30-R.Eckley punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 2.35 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.783037773558086
Yardline 100 49
Elapsed share 0.1686111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2993
Half seconds remaining 1193
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2871195178602454 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28712/0.23813/0.26361 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:17 Penalty · ATL (14:17) PENALTY on ATL-70-J.Matthews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ATL -1.6 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence ATL -0.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q212:30 Penalty · BAL (12:30) (Punt formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ATL 1.09 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 8
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2550
Half seconds remaining 750
Quarter seconds remaining 750
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2550
Half seconds remaining 750
Quarter seconds remaining 750
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence ATL 0.42 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 8
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2550
Half seconds remaining 750
Quarter seconds remaining 750
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2550
Half seconds remaining 750
Quarter seconds remaining 750
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:20 Penalty · BAL (14:20) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ATL -0.77 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 57
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence ATL -0.64 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 57
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q102:39 Fourth down · ATL (2:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BAL 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0.58 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.536380975909691
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.2058333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2859
Half seconds remaining 1059
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 159
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7195110901240789 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71951/ NA/0.71376 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:41 Fourth down · ATL (9:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 2.455470822826609
Yardline 100 79
Elapsed share 0.08861111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3281
Half seconds remaining 1481
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 581
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5189539397338391 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49809/ NA/0.51895 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:08 Kick · BAL (8:08) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.814635252158573
Yardline 100 33
Elapsed share 0.3644444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2288
Half seconds remaining 488
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 488
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.3042376892912066 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30023/0.30424/0.26278 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BAL 1.47 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q200:03 Kick · BAL (:03) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.4752550374116499
Yardline 100 33
Elapsed share 0.4991666666666666
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -8
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1803
Half seconds remaining 3
Away timeouts remaining 0
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 3
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2031633936202427 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14575/0.20316/0.14198 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BAL 1.47 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q309:55 Kick · ATL (9:55) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.3375215494811019
Yardline 100 5
Elapsed share 0.5847222222222223
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1495
Half seconds remaining 1495
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 595
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8038270043764645 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79348/0.80383/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ATL 0.75 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q408:06 Kick · ATL (8:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.110004167064287
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.865
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 2
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 486
Half seconds remaining 486
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 486
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7281740546674942 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69035/0.72817/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ATL 0.75 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q402:35 Kick · ATL (2:35) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.0761526950234927
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.9569444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 155
Half seconds remaining 155
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 155
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8835237277930434 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85055/0.88352/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ATL 0.75 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 19 recorded events Q110:57 Fourth down · BAL (10:57) (Shotgun) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle to ATL 3 for -2 yards (95-G.Dexter, 94-L.London). Penalty on BAL, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:30 Kick · BAL (10:30) 33-T.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 2.33 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 2.592863772386012
Yardline 100 3
Elapsed share 0.075
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3330
Half seconds remaining 1530
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 630
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4352172282435846 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43522/0.41191/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BAL 1.47 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q110:27 Penalty · ATL 33-T.Loop kicks 58 yards from BAL 35 to ATL 7. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 32 for 25 yards (24-M.Starks; 97-E.Burke). PENALTY on ATL-34-J.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27. + Observed ruling consequence ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q108:14 Fumble · BAL (8:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fumble recoveries above expectation ATL 0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL -0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q108:03 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q212:30 Penalty · BAL (12:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 54 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 18 for 12 yards (46-N.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:48 Fourth down · ATL (10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-L.Wester to BAL 47 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 29-S.Brown). + Fourth down decision cost ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:24 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q202:24 Penalty · BAL 6-N.Folk kicks 64 yards from ATL 35 to BAL 1. 26-R.Ali to BAL 37 for 36 yards (28-M.Ford; 23-D.Hellams). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:43 Penalty · BAL (:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [99-C.Thomas]. PENALTY on BAL-79-R.Stanley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:06 Penalty · BAL (:06) PENALTY on BAL-7-R.Bateman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:47 Fourth down · ATL (3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team ATL
Away total 20.5
Home total 24
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.2242452837942082
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.6869444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko Q301:38 Penalty · BAL (1:38) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 37 for 17 yards (39-K.Jackson). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:25 Penalty · BAL (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards (33-B.Bowman; 95-G.Dexter). PENALTY on BAL-51-E.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:17 Penalty · BAL (2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on ATL-31-X.Watts, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:27 Fumble · ATL (:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-64-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-9-M.Penix was injured during the play. + Fumble recoveries above expectation ATL 0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL -0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q400:08 Fourth down · ATL (:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q504:10 Penalty · BAL (4:10) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q502:57 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. ** Injury Update: BAL-98-T.Jones has returned to the game. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
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Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC
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Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 948c3964aae55e9c6788270191ab7b96c5d03fb995a40a25201a94f887b88a63Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 188ded7914019d5f0ec5c1c02b5ceb65f599ebe3dfc4047ba1165d8cf13d3307
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 2 · Latest ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 12, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 12, 2026, 4:21 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1127
Half seconds remaining 1127
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6953854039918781 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69539/0.67162/0.65599 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled