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FINAL SCORE

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

DET 45—ARI 21

✓ Analysis completeUpdated Oct 12, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC

GAME RATING

Fair

1 / 5

Fair
Debatable
Hmm
Sus
RIGGED?

The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

How this rating was calculated

Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

Result versus box score

Fair · 1/5

Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: DET by 9.1; actual result: DET by 24.

The 14.9-point difference was matched or exceeded in 71 of 816 earlier comparison games.

Adjusted rarity: 26.44%

Penalty pattern

Fair · 1/5

Combined penalty count: 9 versus 12.3 expected.

The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 610 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Result versus spread

Fair · 1/5

Recorded spread: DET by 5.5; actual result: DET by 24. The difference was 18.5 points.

1,229 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.

Adjusted rarity: 50.71%

Penalties extending one drive

Fair · 1/5

No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.

The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.

The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.

Rating thresholds

Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.

Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.

Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.

Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.

RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.

Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.

These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.

Full methodology ↗

Do you agree with this rating?

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Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Actual team statistics for DET at ARI
Game statistic	DETWIN	ARILOSS
Points scored	45	21
Total offensive yards	412	327
Penalties	4	5
Penalty yards	31	45
Turnover margin	+1	-1
Non-offensive touchdowns	0	0

Spread vs. result

Within the usual range

Expected marginDetroit Lions by 5.5

Final marginDetroit Lions by 24

Difference18.5 points

Detroit Lions covered the spread.

1,229 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (16.9%).

Where this comparison comes from

The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.

The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.

View the source data ↗

Did the score fit the performance?

Yardage + turnovers

Expected from the box scoreDET by 9.1

Actual final marginDET by 24

HOW THE GAME MOVED

Game momentum

Arizona Cardinals chance to win · vs. Detroit LionsBefore-play estimates

DIG INTO THE NUMBERSDetailed analysis by categoryOfficiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution.

Impact of officiating decisions

How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.

DETObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Unsupported state

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:525

DETObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Intervening state change

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Fan feedback

Loading fan feedback…

Notable plays 0

No plays met the scan criteria.

THE UNDERLYING RECORD

Source plays 182

Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.

Browse all 182 source plays

Q115:00GAMEPlay 1

GAME

Source play 1Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:0038-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to DET 1. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 30 yards (23-A.Green).Play 39

38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to DET 1. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 30 yards (23-A.Green).

Source play 39Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q114:53(14:53) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 33 for 2 yards (3-B.Baker; 55-D.Stills).Play 62

(14:53) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 33 for 2 yards (3-B.Baker; 55-D.Stills).

Source play 62ARI preplay win probability: 56.6%Link to source play ↗

Q114:17(14:17) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 36 for 3 yards (97-W.Nolen; 1-Ma.Wilson).Play 84

(14:17) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 36 for 3 yards (97-W.Nolen; 1-Ma.Wilson).

Source play 84ARI preplay win probability: 57.8%Link to source play ↗

Q113:39(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 24 for -12 yards (3-B.Baker).

CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 36Optional calculations for individual plays.

Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.

Q208:36Fourth down · ARI(8:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.

Not reviewedPlay 1709Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ARI

0.72 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: ARI
Ydstogo: 3
Outdoors: 0
Away team: DET
Home team: ARI
Away total: 30.5
Home total: 25
Total line: 55.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: -5.5
Spread time: -1.320593722930315
Yardline 100

ABOUT THIS REPORTData & report historySources, calculation notes and earlier versions.

Automatic analysis

Complete

Updates automatically when source data changes.

Source data

Early source data

The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.

Data limitations and calculation notes (3)

Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation.
Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent.
Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified.

Data sources

football-zebras

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4

ftn-via-nflverse

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56

nflverse-schedules

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 ce93c37bd93ca979cee3eb940ea4d4b1ce96ea17d089eef49e0869b84ccdead7

Were the penalties unusual?

Accepted penalties / yards

Actual penalties compared with league, team, opponent and referee expectations
Comparison	DET	ARI
Actual	4 / 31 yd	5 / 45 yd
Expected for this matchup	6 / 50.5 yd	6.2 / 51.6 yd
League average	6 / 49.5 yd	6 / 49.5 yd
Team’s usual penalties	5.9 / 48.6 yd · 85 games	6.4 / 51.9 yd · 85 games
Opponent usually draws	5.7 / 47.6 yd · 85 games	5.7 / 46.9 yd · 85 games

The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 610 of 779 comparison games.

Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.

The referee: Carl Cheffers

Head official

Assignment: Football Zebras

In 79 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.4 yards across both teams.

Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee	DET	ARI
Games	5	7
Wins–losses–ties	3–2–0	2–5–0
Team penalties per game	7 / 59 yd	7.6 / 58 yd

Referee comparison details

Home teams: 6 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.6 / 54.7 yd per game.

These are crew totals in games led by Carl Cheffers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.

Historical coverage & audit method

14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons

Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1

Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385

Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.

View all chart data (182 entries)

Arizona Cardinals chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Period	Clock	Source play	ARI win chance	Estimate source
Q1	15:00	Play 1 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 39 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	14:53	Play 62 ↗	56.6%	Regulation model
Q1	14:17	Play 84 ↗	57.8%	Regulation model
Q1	13:39	Play 106 ↗	58.2%	Regulation model
Q1	13:08	Play 126 ↗	65.7%	Regulation model
Q1	13:00	Play 146 ↗	61.3%	Regulation model
Q1	12:26	Play 171 ↗	64.0%	Regulation model
Q1	11:49	Play 193 ↗	63.8%	Regulation model
Q1	11:05	Play 218 ↗	65.2%	Regulation model
Q1	10:23	Play 242 ↗	63.6%	Regulation model
Q1	10:18	Play 288 ↗	60.5%	Regulation model
Q1	09:35	Play 313 ↗	70.0%	Regulation model
Q1	08:58	Play 335 ↗	70.1%	Regulation model
Q1	08:19	Play 357 ↗	69.2%	Regulation model
Q1	07:30	Play 382 ↗	72.0%	Regulation model
Q1	06:47	Play 404 ↗	71.0%	Regulation model
Q1	06:41	Play 427 ↗	69.0%	Regulation model
Q1	05:56	Play 464 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	05:56	Play 452 ↗	67.8%	Regulation model
Q1	05:10	Play 484 ↗	74.1%	Regulation model
Q1	05:06	Play 510 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	05:06	Play 525 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	04:58	Play 566 ↗	75.4%	Regulation model
Q1	04:24	Play 586 ↗	78.2%	Regulation model
Q1	03:51	Play 616 ↗	78.9%	Regulation model
Q1	03:46	Play 639 ↗	81.4%	Regulation model
Q1	03:32	Play 681 ↗	78.8%	Regulation model
Q1	02:56	Play 705 ↗	78.4%	Regulation model
Q1	02:11	Play 725 ↗	75.9%	Regulation model
Q1	02:07	Play 748 ↗	73.3%	Regulation model
Q1	01:54	Play 774 ↗	72.4%	Regulation model
Q1	01:49	Play 804 ↗	73.9%	Regulation model
Q1	01:05	Play 834 ↗	76.3%	Regulation model
Q1	00:28	Play 859 ↗	78.4%	Regulation model
Q1	00:21	Play 879 ↗	77.8%	Regulation model
Q1	00:00	Play 917 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	15:00	Play 937 ↗	79.3%	Regulation model
Q2	14:42	Play 970 ↗	76.5%	Regulation model
Q2	14:36	Play 1005 ↗	74.1%	Regulation model
Q2	14:30	Play 1037 ↗	71.6%	Regulation model
Q2	14:18	Play 1082 ↗	72.9%	Regulation model
Q2	13:46	Play 1111 ↗	73.2%	Regulation model
Q2	13:41	Play 1134 ↗	74.2%	Regulation model
Q2	13:37	Play 1157 ↗	78.0%	Regulation model
Q2	13:16	Play 1193 ↗	67.8%	Regulation model
Q2	12:45	Play 1215 ↗	64.5%	Regulation model
Q2	12:25	Play 1237 ↗	63.1%	Regulation model
Q2	12:22	Play 1265 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	12:22	Play 1280 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	12:15	Play 1310 ↗	59.5%	Regulation model
Q2	11:37	Play 1335 ↗	58.0%	Regulation model
Q2	11:11	Play 1357 ↗	56.6%	Regulation model
Q2	11:07	Play 1380 ↗	53.3%	Regulation model
Q2	10:51	Play 1422 ↗	51.4%	Regulation model
Q2	10:45	Play 1452 ↗	53.2%	Regulation model
Q2	10:05	Play 1484 ↗	57.8%	Regulation model
Q2	09:38	Play 1567 ↗	53.7%	Regulation model
Q2	09:30	Play 1596 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	09:30	Play 1611 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	09:25	Play 1641 ↗	36.9%	Regulation model
Q2	09:19	Play 1664 ↗	35.3%	Regulation model
Q2	08:41	Play 1686 ↗	37.2%	Regulation model
Q2	08:36	Play 1709 ↗	33.5%	Regulation model
Q2	08:29	Play 1729 ↗	33.9%	Regulation model
Q2	08:03	Play 1757 ↗	28.9%	Regulation model
Q2	07:38	Play 1795 ↗	27.7%	Regulation model
Q2	07:31	Play 1830 ↗	29.2%	Regulation model
Q2	06:51	Play 1857 ↗	24.6%	Regulation model
Q2	06:11	Play 1879 ↗	22.2%	Regulation model
Q2	05:34	Play 1901 ↗	22.7%	Regulation model
Q2	05:00	Play 1923 ↗	20.5%	Regulation model
Q2	04:55	Play 1946 ↗	24.1%	Regulation model
Q2	04:50	Play 1980 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	04:50	Play 1995 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	04:43	Play 2025 ↗	16.8%	Regulation model
Q2	04:19	Play 2050 ↗	17.4%	Regulation model
Q2	03:54	Play 2072 ↗	16.4%	Regulation model
Q2	03:15	Play 2092 ↗	12.9%	Regulation model
Q2	03:03	Play 2118 ↗	11.6%	Regulation model
Q2	02:55	Play 2141 ↗	12.4%	Regulation model
Q2	02:17	Play 2163 ↗	11.9%	Regulation model
Q2	02:00	Play 2188 ↗	10.0%	Regulation model
Q2	01:50	Play 2225 ↗	9.6%	Regulation model
Q2	01:07	Play 2247 ↗	9.9%	Regulation model
Q2	01:02	Play 2281 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:02	Play 2269 ↗	7.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:57	Play 2310 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:57	Play 2298 ↗	8.1%	Regulation model
Q2	00:57	Play 2334 ↗	9.7%	Regulation model
Q2	00:53	Play 2354 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:46	Play 2377 ↗	9.7%	Regulation model
Q2	00:40	Play 2400 ↗	8.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:36	Play 2435 ↗	7.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:21	Play 2460 ↗	11.2%	Regulation model
Q2	00:20	Play 2483 ↗	10.2%	Regulation model
Q2	00:03	Play 2503 ↗	8.1%	Regulation model
Q2	00:00	Play 2530 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	15:00	Play 2550 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	14:54	Play 2573 ↗	11.1%	Regulation model
Q3	14:20	Play 2603 ↗	14.7%	Regulation model
Q3	13:43	Play 2625 ↗	12.7%	Regulation model
Q3	13:02	Play 2655 ↗	10.3%	Regulation model
Q3	12:24	Play 2685 ↗	9.0%	Regulation model
Q3	12:19	Play 2706 ↗	6.4%	Regulation model
Q3	11:50	Play 2748 ↗	6.5%	Regulation model
Q3	11:10	Play 2770 ↗	6.0%	Regulation model
Q3	10:22	Play 2811 ↗	6.9%	Regulation model
Q3	09:50	Play 2833 ↗	6.8%	Regulation model
Q3	09:42	Play 2862 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	09:42	Play 2877 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	09:37	Play 2907 ↗	1.4%	Regulation model
Q3	08:54	Play 2932 ↗	1.3%	Regulation model
Q3	08:16	Play 2954 ↗	1.1%	Regulation model
Q3	07:56	Play 2979 ↗	1.1%	Regulation model
Q3	07:14	Play 3002 ↗	1.3%	Regulation model
Q3	06:42	Play 3027 ↗	1.4%	Regulation model
Q3	06:04	Play 3057 ↗	1.6%	Regulation model
Q3	05:27	Play 3082 ↗	1.1%	Regulation model
Q3	04:58	Play 3104 ↗	0.8%	Regulation model
Q3	04:27	Play 3134 ↗	1.0%	Regulation model
Q3	04:22	Play 3160 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	04:22	Play 3175 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	04:17	Play 3205 ↗	4.2%	Regulation model
Q3	03:41	Play 3230 ↗	4.0%	Regulation model
Q3	03:04	Play 3252 ↗	2.4%	Regulation model
Q3	02:23	Play 3282 ↗	2.0%	Regulation model
Q3	01:58	Play 3304 ↗	1.5%	Regulation model
Q3	01:54	Play 3330 ↗	1.7%	Regulation model
Q3	01:35	Play 3352 ↗	1.6%	Regulation model
Q3	01:07	Play 3374 ↗	2.0%	Regulation model
Q3	01:05	Play 3402 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	01:05	Play 3422 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	01:05	Play 3455 ↗	0.5%	Regulation model
Q3	00:32	Play 3484 ↗	0.4%	Regulation model
Q3	00:01	Play 3506 ↗	0.3%	Regulation model
Q3	00:00	Play 3531 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	15:00	Play 3551 ↗	0.5%	Regulation model
Q4	14:27	Play 3576 ↗	0.6%	Regulation model
Q4	14:19	Play 3613 ↗	0.6%	Regulation model
Q4	13:42	Play 3635 ↗	0.4%	Regulation model
Q4	13:11	Play 3660 ↗	0.4%	Regulation model
Q4	13:03	Play 3683 ↗	0.3%	Regulation model
Q4	12:55	Play 3703 ↗	0.1%	Regulation model
Q4	12:09	Play 3732 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	11:30	Play 3759 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	10:58	Play 3795 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	10:15	Play 3817 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	09:32	Play 3841 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	08:49	Play 3866 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	08:09	Play 3888 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	08:04	Play 3911 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	07:22	Play 3936 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	06:40	Play 3958 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	05:56	Play 3982 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	05:14	Play 4007 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	05:10	Play 4030 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	05:03	Play 4053 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	05:03	Play 4068 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	04:55	Play 4098 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	04:51	Play 4121 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	04:25	Play 4146 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	04:00	Play 4171 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	03:38	Play 4196 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	03:33	Play 4219 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	03:11	Play 4244 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:45	Play 4269 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:39	Play 4299 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:31	Play 4326 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:27	Play 4349 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:23	Play 4384 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:23	Play 4372 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:17	Play 4402 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:11	Play 4428 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:11	Play 4448 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:11	Play 4463 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:04	Play 4486 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	01:57	Play 4508 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	01:17	Play 4542 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	00:34	Play 4564 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	00:21	Play 4584 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	00:00	Play 4606 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage

Coaching decisions

Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.

DETFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62897/ NA/0.67628
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:126

ARIFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38139/0.31386/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:452

DETFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:639

ARIFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44618/ NA/0.45582
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:748

DETFourth down decision cost1.55 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51121/0.50342/0.49576
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:859

ARIFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41770/ NA/0.44457
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1037

DETFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1157

ARIFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29248/ NA/0.30102
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1380

DETFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71880/0.69583/0.65734
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1567

ARIFourth down decision cost0.72 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15871/ NA/0.15147
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1709

DETFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88592/0.87360/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1946

ARIFourth down decision cost0.3 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04558/ NA/0.04261
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2092

DETFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2298

DETFourth down decision cost0.21 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96533/0.96326/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2334

ARIFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02796/0.03153/0.02713
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2685

DETFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99351/0.99017/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:3374

ARIFourth down decision cost0.08 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00276/0.00354/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:3683

ARIFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00017/0.00013/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:4402

DETFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99972/ NA/0.99983
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:4564

Fumble recoveries

Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.

ARIFumble recoveries above expectation-1.2 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.

Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:804 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2770

DETFumble recoveries above expectation1.2 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:804 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2770

Kicking

Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.

ARIField goal points above expectation-2.24 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2685

DETField goal points above expectation0.45 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2334

ARIExtra point points above expectation0.14 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 18 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:510 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:3160 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:4448

DETExtra point points above expectation0.18 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 18 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

6 of 6 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1265 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1596 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:1980 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:2862 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:3402 Event 2026_05_DET_ARI:4053

Penalty patterns

Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.

DETPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.33 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

DETOffensive holding called penalties above expectation-1.27 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

DETDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.71 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 53 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

DETPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.79 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 53 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ARIPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.4 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ARIOffensive holding called penalties above expectation-1.23 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ARIDefensive holding called penalties above expectation0.6 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

ARIPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.42 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Q200:57Kick · DET(:57) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Not reviewedPlay 2334Link to event

Fourth down decision cost DET

0.21 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: DET
Ydstogo: 7
Outdoors: 0
Away team: DET
Home team: ARI
Away total: 30.5
Home total: 25
Total line: 55.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: -5.5
Spread time: -0.7930106920268845
Yardline 100: 27
Elapsed share: 0.4841666666666667
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 30.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 5.5
Original posteam: DET
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 14
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1857
Half seconds remaining: 57
Away timeouts remaining: 2
Home timeouts remaining: 0
Quarter seconds remaining: 57
Defteam timeouts remaining: 0
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.965326746880333

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96533/0.96326/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation DET

0.45 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Show the remaining 24 recorded events

Q312:24Kick · ARI(12:24) 38-C.Ryland 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Not reviewedPlay 2685Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ARI

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: ARI
Ydstogo: 17
Outdoors: 0
Away team: DET
Home team: ARI
Away total: 30.5
Home total: 25
Total line: 55.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: -5.5
Spread time: -0.625887121586913
Yardline 100: 35
Elapsed share: 0.5433333333333333
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 25
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -5.5
Original posteam: ARI
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -17
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1644
Half seconds remaining: 1644
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 744
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.03153013300945184

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02796/0.03153/0.02713
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation ARI

-2.24 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q301:07Fourth down · DET(1:07) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Not reviewedPlay 3374Link to event

Fourth down decision cost DET

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: DET
Ydstogo: 1
Outdoors: 0
Away team: DET
Home team: ARI
Away total: 30.5
Home total: 25
Total line: 55.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: -5.5
Spread time: -0.2949918756128062
Yardline 100: 1
Elapsed share: 0.7313888888888889
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 30.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 5.5
Original posteam: DET
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 17

Q402:17Fourth down · ARI(2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Not reviewedPlay 4402Link to event

Fourth down decision cost ARI

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: ARI
Ydstogo: 9
Outdoors: 0
Away team: DET
Home team: ARI
Away total: 30.5
Home total: 25
Total line: 55.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: -5.5
Spread time: -0.1172989252769109
Yardline 100: 9
Elapsed share: 0.9619444444444445
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 25
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -5.5
Original posteam: ARI
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential

Q400:34Fourth down · DET(:34) 3-J.Fox punts 65 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin.

Not reviewedPlay 4564Link to event

Fourth down decision cost DET

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: DET
Ydstogo: 5
Outdoors: 0
Away team: DET
Home team: ARI
Away total: 30.5
Home total: 25
Total line: 55.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: -5.5
Spread time: -0.1046143936748855
Yardline 100: 67
Elapsed share: 0.9905555555555555
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 30.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 5.5
Original posteam: DET
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential

Q105:06Kick · ARI38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Not reviewedPlay 510Link to event

Extra point points above expectation ARI

0.14 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q105:06Penalty · DET38-C.Ryland kicks 60 yards from ARI 35 to DET 5. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 26 yards (84-E.Higgins; 35-K.King). PENALTY on DET-57-A.Ogbongbemiga, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 31.

Not reviewedPlay 525Link to event

Observed ruling consequence DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q103:46Penalty · DET(3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 34 for 14 yards (55-D.Barnes). PENALTY on ARI-35-K.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

Not reviewedPlay 639Link to event

Observed ruling consequence DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q101:49Fumble · DET(1:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 48 for -9 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning) [5-B.Browning], touched at ARI 45, recovered by DET-70-J.Scruggs at ARI 44.

Not reviewedPlay 804Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation ARI

-1.2 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation DET

1.2 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q100:28Fourth down · DET(:28) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

Not reviewedPlay 859Link to event

Fourth down decision cost DET

1.55 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: retractable
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: DET
Ydstogo: 9
Outdoors: 0
Away team: DET
Home team: ARI
Away total: 30.5
Home total: 25
Total line: 55.5
Retractable: 1
Spread line: -5.5
Spread time: -2.087274615621998
Yardline 100: 42
Elapsed share: 0.2422222222222222
Fg model roof: 01
Posteam total: 30.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 5.5
Original posteam: DET
Home receive 2h ko: 1

Q215:00Penalty · ARI(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left tackle to ARI 22 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson). PENALTY on ARI-14-Mi.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 21 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 937Link to event

Observed ruling consequence ARI

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q213:37Penalty · DET(13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.

Not reviewedPlay 1157Link to event

Observed ruling consequence DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q212:22Kick · DET39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Not reviewedPlay 1265Link to event

Extra point points above expectation DET

0.18 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled

Q209:30Kick · DET39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Not reviewedPlay 1596Link to event

Extra point points above expectation DET

0.18 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled

Q208:03Penalty · DET(8:03) 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at ARI 48 for 4 yards (29-D.Burke; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on ARI-51-R.Lopez, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 48.

Not reviewedPlay 1757Link to event

Observed ruling consequence DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q204:50Kick · DET39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Not reviewedPlay 1980Link to event

Extra point points above expectation DET

0.18 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled

Q200:57Penalty · DET(:57) (Run formation) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 22 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2298Link to event

Observed ruling consequence DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q311:10Fumble · DET(11:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 33 for 6 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning), touched at ARI 40, recovered by DET-69-T.Ratledge at ARI 46.

Not reviewedPlay 2770Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation ARI

-1.2 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation DET

1.2 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q309:42Kick · DET39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Not reviewedPlay 2862Link to event

Extra point points above expectation DET

0.18 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled

Q304:22Kick · ARI38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Not reviewedPlay 3160Link to event

Extra point points above expectation ARI

0.14 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q301:05Kick · DET39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Not reviewedPlay 3402Link to event

Extra point points above expectation DET

0.18 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled

Q411:30Penalty · DET(11:30) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 44 for 16 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DET 40 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3759Link to event

Observed ruling consequence DET

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q405:03Kick · DET39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Not reviewedPlay 4053Link to event

Extra point points above expectation DET

0.18 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled

Q402:11Penalty · ARI(Kick formation) PENALTY on ARI-71-J.Gaines, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 15 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 4428Link to event

Observed ruling consequence ARI

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q402:11Kick · ARI38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Not reviewedPlay 4448Link to event

Extra point points above expectation ARI

0.14 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Model versions and technical record

nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.

nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.

fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1

Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons

Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.

spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1

Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons

Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.

game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5

Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only

Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.

game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1

Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.

Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.

Analysis input hash: fc3432ead9e50be1d5e529148e5d7c09a851fbea021932bd8b0c9977dfeffd28

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Fair

Result versus box score

Penalty pattern

Result versus spread

Penalties extending one drive

Do you agree with this rating?

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Spread vs. result

Did the score fit the performance?

Game momentum

Impact of officiating decisions

Fan feedback

Source plays 182

Fourth down decision cost ARI

Actual state

Automatic analysis

Source data

Data sources

football-zebras

ftn-via-nflverse

nflverse-schedules

Were the penalties unusual?

The referee: Carl Cheffers

How the result took shape

Coaching decisions

Fumble recoveries

Kicking

Player execution

Penalty patterns

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost DET

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Field goal points above expectation DET

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Observed ruling consequence ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost DET

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost ARI

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost DET

Actual state

Supported alternative