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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Detroit Lions by 5.5
Final margin Detroit Lions by 24
Difference 18.5 points
Detroit Lions covered the spread.
1,229 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (16.9%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin DET by 24
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Carl Cheffers Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 79 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.4 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Arizona Cardinals · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Detroit Lions · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Arizona Cardinals chance to win during the game 151 preplay estimates across 182 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 31 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 0 + No plays met the scan criteria.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 182 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 182 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to DET 1. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 30 yards (23-A.Green). Play 39 38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to DET 1. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 30 yards (23-A.Green).
Q114:53 (14:53) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 33 for 2 yards (3-B.Baker; 55-D.Stills). Play 62 (14:53) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 33 for 2 yards (3-B.Baker; 55-D.Stills).
Q114:17 (14:17) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 36 for 3 yards (97-W.Nolen; 1-Ma.Wilson). Play 84 (14:17) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 36 for 3 yards (97-W.Nolen; 1-Ma.Wilson).
Q113:39 (13:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 24 for -12 yards (3-B.Baker). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 36 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q208:36 Fourth down · ARI (8:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0.72 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -1.320593722930315
Yardline 100 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot Team penalties per game 7 / 59 yd 7.6 / 58 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.6 / 54.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Carl Cheffers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 151 model estimates across 182 recorded game entries.
31 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (182 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence 0.13 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Ruling expected points consequence 1.49 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
DET Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62897/ NA/0.67628 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38139/0.31386/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44618/ NA/0.45582 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 1.55 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51121/0.50342/0.49576 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41770/ NA/0.44457 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29248/ NA/0.30102 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71880/0.69583/0.65734 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0.72 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15871/ NA/0.15147 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88592/0.87360/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0.3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04558/ NA/0.04261 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 0.21 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96533/0.96326/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02796/0.03153/0.02713 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99351/0.99017/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0.08 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00276/0.00354/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00017/0.00013/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99972/ NA/0.99983 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
ARI Fumble recoveries above expectation -1.2 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
DET Fumble recoveries above expectation 1.2 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
ARI Field goal points above expectation -2.24 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DET Field goal points above expectation 0.45 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
ARI Extra point points above expectation 0.14 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 18 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
DET Extra point points above expectation 0.18 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 18 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
6 of 6 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
ARI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 182 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
DET Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 182 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
DET Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.33 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DET Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.27 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DET Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.71 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 53 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DET Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.79 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 53 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.23 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.6 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 106
(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 24 for -12 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q113:08 (13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay. Play 126 (13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.
Q113:00 (13:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 38 for 11 yards (6-K.Abney). Play 146 (13:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 38 for 11 yards (6-K.Abney).
Q112:26 (12:26) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 43 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 171 (12:26) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 43 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q111:49 (11:49) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 49 for 6 yards (36-C.Clark; 97-A.Hutchinson). Play 193 (11:49) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 49 for 6 yards (36-C.Clark; 97-A.Hutchinson).
Q111:05 (11:05) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love right tackle to ARI 48 for -1 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 218 (11:05) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love right tackle to ARI 48 for -1 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q110:23 (10:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary). Play 242 (10:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary).
Q110:18 (10:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to DET 30 for 22 yards (21-R.McCreary). Play 288 (10:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to DET 30 for 22 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q109:35 (9:35) 4-J.Love right guard to DET 29 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 46-J.Campbell). Play 313 (9:35) 4-J.Love right guard to DET 29 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 46-J.Campbell).
Q108:58 (8:58) 4-J.Love up the middle to DET 26 for 3 yards (54-A.McNeill; 50-S.Gill-Howard). Play 335 (8:58) 4-J.Love up the middle to DET 26 for 3 yards (54-A.McNeill; 50-S.Gill-Howard).
Q108:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to DET 18 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 357 (8:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to DET 18 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q107:30 (7:30) 4-J.Love right end to DET 18 for no gain (46-J.Campbell; 27-J.Mills). Play 382 (7:30) 4-J.Love right end to DET 18 for no gain (46-J.Campbell; 27-J.Mills).
Q106:47 (6:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary). Play 404 (6:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary).
Q106:41 (6:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to DET 9 for 9 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 427 (6:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to DET 9 for 9 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q105:56 Timeout #1 by ARI at 05:56. Play 464 Timeout #1 by ARI at 05:56.
Q105:56 (5:56) (Shotgun) 14-Mi.Wilson pass short right to 7-J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (46-J.Campbell; 2-E.Rakestraw). Play 452 (5:56) (Shotgun) 14-Mi.Wilson pass short right to 7-J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (46-J.Campbell; 2-E.Rakestraw).
Q105:10 (5:10) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 47-T.Quitoriano for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 484 (5:10) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 47-T.Quitoriano for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q105:06 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 510 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q105:06 38-C.Ryland kicks 60 yards from ARI 35 to DET 5. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 26 yards (84-E.Higgins; 35-K.King). PENALTY on DET-57-A.Ogbongbemiga, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 31. Play 525 38-C.Ryland kicks 60 yards from ARI 35 to DET 5. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 26 yards (84-E.Higgins; 35-K.King). PENALTY on DET-57-A.Ogbongbemiga, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 31.
Q104:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 18 for -8 yards (51-R.Lopez). Play 566 (4:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 18 for -8 yards (51-R.Lopez).
Q104:24 (4:24) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at DET 23 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 586 (4:24) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at DET 23 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q103:51 (3:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.TeSlaa. Play 616 (3:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.TeSlaa.
Q103:46 (3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 34 for 14 yards (55-D.Barnes). PENALTY on ARI-35-K.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28. Play 639 (3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 34 for 14 yards (55-D.Barnes). PENALTY on ARI-35-K.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.
Q103:32 (3:32) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 22 for 4 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 681 (3:32) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 22 for 4 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q102:56 (2:56) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 21 for -1 yards (55-D.Barnes). Play 705 (2:56) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 21 for -1 yards (55-D.Barnes).
Q102:11 (2:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride. Play 725 (2:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride.
Q102:07 (2:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to ARI 43 for 22 yards (0-C.Simon; 12-B.Gillikin). Play 748 (2:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to ARI 43 for 22 yards (0-C.Simon; 12-B.Gillikin).
Q101:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left [56-D.Robinson]. Play 774 (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left [56-D.Robinson].
Q101:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 48 for -9 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning) [5-B.Browning], touched at ARI 45, recovered by DET-70-J.Scruggs at ARI 44. Play 804 (1:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 48 for -9 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning) [5-B.Browning], touched at ARI 45, recovered by DET-70-J.Scruggs at ARI 44.
Q101:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to ARI 42 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins). Play 834 (1:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to ARI 42 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins).
Q100:28 (:28) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay. Play 859 (:28) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.
Q100:21 (:21) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love right end to ARI 21 for 8 yards (6-K.Abney). Play 879 (:21) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love right end to ARI 21 for 8 yards (6-K.Abney).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 917 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left tackle to ARI 22 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson). PENALTY on ARI-14-Mi.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 21 - No Play. Play 937 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left tackle to ARI 22 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson). PENALTY on ARI-14-Mi.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 21 - No Play.
Q214:42 (14:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson [54-A.McNeill]. Play 970 (14:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson [54-A.McNeill].
Q214:36 (14:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (4-D.Reed). Play 1005 (14:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (4-D.Reed).
Q214:30 (14:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 46 for 11 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). DET-85-T.Kennedy was injured during the play. Play 1037 (14:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 46 for 11 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). DET-85-T.Kennedy was injured during the play.
Q214:18 (14:18) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 47 for 7 yards (54-E.Leota). Play 1082 (14:18) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 47 for 7 yards (54-E.Leota).
Q213:46 (13:46) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 0-J.Gibbs [56-D.Robinson]. Play 1111 (13:46) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 0-J.Gibbs [56-D.Robinson].
Q213:41 (13:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown (31-W.Williams). Play 1134 (13:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown (31-W.Williams).
Q213:37 (13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35. Play 1157 (13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.
Q213:16 (13:16) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 4 for 16 yards (13-K.Clark; 3-B.Baker). Play 1193 (13:16) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 4 for 16 yards (13-K.Clark; 3-B.Baker).
Q212:45 (12:45) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 1 for 3 yards (29-D.Burke; 1-Ma.Wilson). Play 1215 (12:45) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 1 for 3 yards (29-D.Burke; 1-Ma.Wilson).
Q212:25 (12:25) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1237 (12:25) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q212:22 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 1265 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q212:22 39-J.Bates kicks 60 yards from DET 35 to ARI 5. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 26 for 21 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 5-C.Izien). Play 1280 39-J.Bates kicks 60 yards from DET 35 to ARI 5. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 26 for 21 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 5-C.Izien).
Q212:15 (12:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 27 for 1 yard (4-D.Reed). Play 1310 (12:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 27 for 1 yard (4-D.Reed).
Q211:37 (11:37) (No Huddle) 22-T.Allgeier left end to ARI 29 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell; 55-D.Barnes). Play 1335 (11:37) (No Huddle) 22-T.Allgeier left end to ARI 29 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell; 55-D.Barnes).
Q211:11 (11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary). Play 1357 (11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary).
Q211:07 (11:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 48 for 31 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (80-S.Fehoko), recovered by DET-17-T.Martin at ARI 47. Play 1380 (11:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 48 for 31 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (80-S.Fehoko), recovered by DET-17-T.Martin at ARI 47.
Q210:51 (10:51) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown. ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play. Play 1422 (10:51) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown. ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.
Q210:45 (10:45) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to ARI 49 for -2 yards (55-D.Stills, 97-W.Nolen). Play 1452 (10:45) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to ARI 49 for -2 yards (55-D.Stills, 97-W.Nolen).
Q210:05 (10:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at ARI 38 for 11 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). ** Injury Update: ARI-3-B.Baker has returned to the game. Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 1484 (10:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at ARI 38 for 11 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). ** Injury Update: ARI-3-B.Baker has returned to the game. Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q209:38 (9:38) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1567 (9:38) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q209:30 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 1596 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q209:30 39-J.Bates kicks 66 yards from DET 35 to ARI -1. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 29 for 30 yards (41-J.Rolder). Play 1611 39-J.Bates kicks 66 yards from DET 35 to ARI -1. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 29 for 30 yards (41-J.Rolder).
Q209:25 (9:25) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 82-R.Virgil (21-R.McCreary). Play 1641 (9:25) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 82-R.Virgil (21-R.McCreary).
Q209:19 (9:19) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 36 for 7 yards (6-K.Abney; 46-J.Campbell). Play 1664 (9:19) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 36 for 7 yards (6-K.Abney; 46-J.Campbell).
Q208:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 86-J.Brooks. Play 1686 (8:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 86-J.Brooks.
Q208:36 (8:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown. Play 1709 (8:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.
Q208:29 (8:29) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 48 for 23 yards (51-R.Lopez; 91-L.Collier). ARI-31-W.Williams was injured during the play. Play 1729 (8:29) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 48 for 23 yards (51-R.Lopez; 91-L.Collier). ARI-31-W.Williams was injured during the play.
Q208:03 (8:03) 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at ARI 48 for 4 yards (29-D.Burke; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on ARI-51-R.Lopez, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 48. Play 1757 (8:03) 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at ARI 48 for 4 yards (29-D.Burke; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on ARI-51-R.Lopez, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 48.
Q207:38 (7:38) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.St. Brown. Play 1795 (7:38) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.St. Brown.
Q207:31 (7:31) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright to ARI 32 for 11 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 1830 (7:31) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright to ARI 32 for 11 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q206:51 (6:51) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 14 for 18 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 1857 (6:51) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 14 for 18 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q206:11 (6:11) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 11 for 3 yards (91-L.Collier; 50-J.Gibbens). Play 1879 (6:11) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 11 for 3 yards (91-L.Collier; 50-J.Gibbens).
Q205:34 (5:34) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 8 for 3 yards (10-J.Sweat). Play 1901 (5:34) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 8 for 3 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q205:00 (5:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa. Play 1923 (5:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa.
Q204:55 (4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1946 (4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q204:50 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 1980 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q204:50 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to ARI 1. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 23 for 22 yards (33-S.Vaki). Play 1995 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to ARI 1. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 23 for 22 yards (33-S.Vaki).
Q204:43 (4:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to ARI 31 for 8 yards (55-D.Barnes; 2-E.Rakestraw). Play 2025 (4:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to ARI 31 for 8 yards (55-D.Barnes; 2-E.Rakestraw).
Q204:19 (4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 32 for 1 yard (6-K.Abney). Play 2050 (4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 32 for 1 yard (6-K.Abney).
Q203:54 (3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 24 for -8 yards (98-D.Wonnum). Play 2072 (3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 24 for -8 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q203:15 (3:15) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to DET 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 38 for 5 yards (0-C.Simon). Play 2092 (3:15) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to DET 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 38 for 5 yards (0-C.Simon).
Q203:03 (3:03) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 1-J.Williams (16-M.Melton). Play 2118 (3:03) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 1-J.Williams (16-M.Melton).
Q202:55 (2:55) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 41 for 3 yards (51-R.Lopez; 5-B.Browning). Play 2141 (2:55) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 41 for 3 yards (51-R.Lopez; 5-B.Browning).
Q202:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 48 for 11 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 2163 (2:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 48 for 11 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at ARI 30 for 18 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 2188 (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at ARI 30 for 18 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q201:50 (1:50) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 30 for no gain (51-R.Lopez; 10-J.Sweat). Play 2225 (1:50) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 30 for no gain (51-R.Lopez; 10-J.Sweat).
Q201:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to ARI 26 for 4 yards (56-D.Robinson). Play 2247 (1:07) (Shotgun) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to ARI 26 for 4 yards (56-D.Robinson).
Q201:02 Timeout #2 by ARI at 01:02. Play 2281 Timeout #2 by ARI at 01:02.
Q201:02 (1:02) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 22 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 25-Z.Collins). Play 2269 (1:02) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 22 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 25-Z.Collins).
Q200:57 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:57. Play 2310 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:57.
Q200:57 (:57) (Run formation) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 22 - No Play. Play 2298 (:57) (Run formation) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 22 - No Play.
Q200:57 (:57) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 2334 (:57) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q200:53 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 28 for 27 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 33-S.Vaki). Play 2354 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 28 for 27 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 33-S.Vaki).
Q200:46 (:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 17-K.Bourne (21-R.McCreary). Play 2377 (:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 17-K.Bourne (21-R.McCreary).
Q200:40 (:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Love. Play 2400 (:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Love.
Q200:36 (:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 17-K.Bourne to DET 49 for 23 yards (21-R.McCreary). Play 2435 (:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 17-K.Bourne to DET 49 for 23 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q200:21 (:21) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 2460 (:21) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 42 for -9 yards (98-D.Wonnum). Play 2483 (:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 42 for -9 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q200:03 (:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Abney at DET 17. 6-K.Abney to DET 17 for no gain (14-Mi.Wilson). Play 2503 (:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Abney at DET 17. 6-K.Abney to DET 17 for no gain (14-Mi.Wilson).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2530 Q315:00 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to ARI 1. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 34 for 33 yards (33-S.Vaki). Play 2550 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to ARI 1. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 34 for 33 yards (33-S.Vaki).
Q314:54 (14:54) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 84-E.Higgins pushed ob at DET 28 for 38 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 2573 (14:54) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 84-E.Higgins pushed ob at DET 28 for 38 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q314:20 (14:20) 4-J.Love left tackle to DET 30 for -2 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 2603 (14:20) 4-J.Love left tackle to DET 30 for -2 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q313:43 (13:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at DET 39 for -9 yards (sack split by 54-A.McNeill and 50-S.Gill-Howard). Play 2625 (13:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at DET 39 for -9 yards (sack split by 54-A.McNeill and 50-S.Gill-Howard).
Q313:02 (13:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to DET 35 for 4 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 2655 (13:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to DET 35 for 4 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q312:24 (12:24) 38-C.Ryland 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 2685 (12:24) 38-C.Ryland 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q312:19 (12:19) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at ARI 49 for 8 yards (10-J.Sweat). Play 2706 (12:19) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at ARI 49 for 8 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q311:50 (11:50) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 39 for 10 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 2748 (11:50) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 39 for 10 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q311:10 (11:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 33 for 6 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning), touched at ARI 40, recovered by DET-69-T.Ratledge at ARI 46. Play 2770 (11:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 33 for 6 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning), touched at ARI 40, recovered by DET-69-T.Ratledge at ARI 46.
Q310:22 (10:22) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 39 for 7 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 2811 (10:22) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 39 for 7 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q309:50 (9:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. Play 2833 (9:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play.
Q309:42 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 2862 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q309:42 39-J.Bates kicks 60 yards from DET 35 to ARI 5. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 28 for 23 yards (66-E.O'Neill). Play 2877 39-J.Bates kicks 60 yards from DET 35 to ARI 5. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 28 for 23 yards (66-E.O'Neill).
Q309:37 (9:37) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 45 for 17 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 2907 (9:37) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 45 for 17 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q308:54 (8:54) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 47 for 2 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 2932 (8:54) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 47 for 2 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q308:16 (8:16) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to DET 46 for 7 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). Play 2954 (8:16) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to DET 46 for 7 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).
Q307:56 (7:56) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to DET 45 for 1 yard (46-J.Campbell). (Virtual Measurement). Play 2979 (7:56) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to DET 45 for 1 yard (46-J.Campbell). (Virtual Measurement).
Q307:14 (7:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to DET 38 for 7 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 3002 (7:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to DET 38 for 7 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q306:42 (6:42) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins pushed ob at DET 25 for 13 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 3027 (6:42) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins pushed ob at DET 25 for 13 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q306:04 (6:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 22-T.Allgeier to DET 20 for 5 yards (6-K.Abney) [93-T.Lacy]. Play 3057 (6:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 22-T.Allgeier to DET 20 for 5 yards (6-K.Abney) [93-T.Lacy].
Q305:27 (5:27) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to DET 17 for 3 yards (8-D.Moore). Play 3082 (5:27) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to DET 17 for 3 yards (8-D.Moore).
Q304:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at DET 13 for 4 yards (55-D.Barnes). Play 3104 (4:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at DET 13 for 4 yards (55-D.Barnes).
Q304:27 (4:27) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 47-T.Quitoriano for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3134 (4:27) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 47-T.Quitoriano for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q304:22 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 3160 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q304:22 38-C.Ryland kicks 63 yards from ARI 35 to DET 2. 25-J.Saylors to DET 26 for 24 yards (23-A.Green; 52-J.Burch). Play 3175 38-C.Ryland kicks 63 yards from ARI 35 to DET 2. 25-J.Saylors to DET 26 for 24 yards (23-A.Green; 52-J.Burch).
Q304:17 (4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 34 for 8 yards (56-D.Robinson). Play 3205 (4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 34 for 8 yards (56-D.Robinson).
Q303:41 (3:41) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to DET 40 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3230 (3:41) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to DET 40 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q303:04 (3:04) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at ARI 24 for 36 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 3252 (3:04) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at ARI 24 for 36 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q302:23 (2:23) 0-J.Gibbs right end to ARI 2 for 22 yards (3-B.Baker). ** Injury Update: ARI-97-W.Nolen has returned to the game. Play 3282 (2:23) 0-J.Gibbs right end to ARI 2 for 22 yards (3-B.Baker). ** Injury Update: ARI-97-W.Nolen has returned to the game.
Q301:58 (1:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown. Play 3304 (1:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown.
Q301:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 3330 (1:54) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q301:35 (1:35) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 1 for no gain (16-M.Melton; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 3352 (1:35) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 1 for no gain (16-M.Melton; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q301:07 (1:07) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3374 (1:07) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q301:05 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 3402 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q301:05 39-J.Bates kicks 65 yards from DET 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARI 35. Play 3422 39-J.Bates kicks 65 yards from DET 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARI 35.
Q301:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 40 for 5 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). Play 3455 (1:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 40 for 5 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).
Q300:32 (:32) 4-J.Love right end to ARI 36 for -4 yards (4-D.Reed, 21-R.McCreary). Play 3484 (:32) 4-J.Love right end to ARI 36 for -4 yards (4-D.Reed, 21-R.McCreary).
Q300:01 (:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 47 for 11 yards (21-R.McCreary). Play 3506 (:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 47 for 11 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3531 Q415:00 (15:00) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to DET 44 for 9 yards (6-K.Abney) [98-D.Wonnum]. The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 3551 (15:00) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to DET 44 for 9 yards (6-K.Abney) [98-D.Wonnum]. The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q414:27 (14:27) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on DET-95-L.Onwuzurike, Roughing the Passer, 16 yards, enforced at DET 44 - No Play. Play 3576 (14:27) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on DET-95-L.Onwuzurike, Roughing the Passer, 16 yards, enforced at DET 44 - No Play.
Q414:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to DET 28 for no gain (44-M.Rodriguez). Play 3613 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love up the middle to DET 28 for no gain (44-M.Rodriguez).
Q413:42 (13:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 86-J.Brooks to DET 19 for 9 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 3635 (13:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 86-J.Brooks to DET 19 for 9 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q413:11 (13:11) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right [97-A.Hutchinson]. Play 3660 (13:11) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right [97-A.Hutchinson].
Q413:03 (13:03) 7-J.Brissett sacked at DET 20 for -1 yards (sack split by 97-A.Hutchinson and 44-M.Rodriguez). Play 3683 (13:03) 7-J.Brissett sacked at DET 20 for -1 yards (sack split by 97-A.Hutchinson and 44-M.Rodriguez).
Q412:55 (12:55) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 29 for 8 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 29-D.Burke). Play 3703 (12:55) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 29 for 8 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 29-D.Burke).
Q412:09 (12:09) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle pushed ob at DET 40 for 11 yards (29-D.Burke). Play 3732 (12:09) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle pushed ob at DET 40 for 11 yards (29-D.Burke).
Q411:30 (11:30) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 44 for 16 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DET 40 - No Play. Play 3759 (11:30) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 44 for 16 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DET 40 - No Play.
Q410:58 (10:58) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to 50 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 3795 (10:58) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to 50 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q410:15 (10:15) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 48 for 2 yards (97-W.Nolen; 5-B.Browning). Play 3817 (10:15) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to ARI 48 for 2 yards (97-W.Nolen; 5-B.Browning).
Q409:32 (9:32) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 29 for 19 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3841 (9:32) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 29 for 19 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q408:49 (8:49) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to ARI 25 for 4 yards (55-D.Stills). Play 3866 (8:49) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to ARI 25 for 4 yards (55-D.Stills).
Q408:09 (8:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Williams (13-K.Clark). Play 3888 (8:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Williams (13-K.Clark).
Q408:04 (8:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 18 for 7 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 54-E.Leota). Play 3911 (8:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 18 for 7 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 54-E.Leota).
Q407:22 (7:22) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 16 for 2 yards (97-W.Nolen; 1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3936 (7:22) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 16 for 2 yards (97-W.Nolen; 1-Ma.Wilson).
Q406:40 (6:40) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 16 for no gain (51-R.Lopez). Play 3958 (6:40) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to ARI 16 for no gain (51-R.Lopez).
Q405:56 (5:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 3 for 13 yards (3-B.Baker; 29-D.Burke). Play 3982 (5:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 3 for 13 yards (3-B.Baker; 29-D.Burke).
Q405:14 (5:14) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown. Play 4007 (5:14) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown.
Q405:10 (5:10) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4030 (5:10) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q405:03 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 4053 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q405:03 39-J.Bates kicks 63 yards from DET 35 to ARI 2. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 22 for 20 yards (17-T.Martin; 33-S.Vaki). Play 4068 39-J.Bates kicks 63 yards from DET 35 to ARI 2. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 22 for 20 yards (17-T.Martin; 33-S.Vaki).
Q404:55 (4:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne. Play 4098 (4:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne.
Q404:51 (4:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 25 for 3 yards (27-J.Mills). Play 4121 (4:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 25 for 3 yards (27-J.Mills).
Q404:25 (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 82-R.Virgil to ARI 38 for 13 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). Play 4146 (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 82-R.Virgil to ARI 38 for 13 yards (2-E.Rakestraw).
Q404:00 (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 42 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 4171 (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 42 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q403:38 (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 82-R.Virgil. Play 4196 (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 82-R.Virgil.
Q403:33 (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 86-J.Brooks to ARI 49 for 7 yards (8-D.Moore; 2-E.Rakestraw). Play 4219 (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 86-J.Brooks to ARI 49 for 7 yards (8-D.Moore; 2-E.Rakestraw).
Q403:11 (3:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 82-R.Virgil to DET 35 for 16 yards (21-R.McCreary). Play 4244 (3:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 82-R.Virgil to DET 35 for 16 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q402:45 (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne pushed ob at DET 27 for 8 yards (21-R.McCreary). Play 4269 (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne pushed ob at DET 27 for 8 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q402:39 (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left end ran ob at DET 9 for 18 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 4299 (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left end ran ob at DET 9 for 18 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q402:31 (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Bourne (54-A.McNeill). Play 4326 (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Bourne (54-A.McNeill).
Q402:27 (2:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 82-R.Virgil. Play 4349 (2:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 82-R.Virgil.
Q402:23 Timeout #1 by DET at 02:23. Play 4384 Timeout #1 by DET at 02:23.
Q402:23 (2:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary) [8-D.Moore]. Play 4372 (2:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Brooks (21-R.McCreary) [8-D.Moore].
Q402:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4402 (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q402:11 (Kick formation) PENALTY on ARI-71-J.Gaines, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 15 - No Play. Play 4428 (Kick formation) PENALTY on ARI-71-J.Gaines, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 15 - No Play.
Q402:11 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 4448 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q402:11 38-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from ARI 35 to DET -1. 25-J.Saylors to DET 28 for 29 yards (23-A.Green; 43-K.Sharar). Play 4463 38-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from ARI 35 to DET -1. 25-J.Saylors to DET 28 for 29 yards (23-A.Green; 43-K.Sharar).
Q402:04 (2:04) 33-S.Vaki left end to DET 34 for 6 yards (91-L.Collier). Play 4486 (2:04) 33-S.Vaki left end to DET 34 for 6 yards (91-L.Collier).
Q401:57 (1:57) 33-S.Vaki right tackle to DET 36 for 2 yards (3-B.Baker; 52-J.Burch). Play 4508 (1:57) 33-S.Vaki right tackle to DET 36 for 2 yards (3-B.Baker; 52-J.Burch).
Q401:17 (1:17) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to DET 33 for -3 yards (51-R.Lopez). Play 4542 (1:17) 33-S.Vaki up the middle to DET 33 for -3 yards (51-R.Lopez).
Q400:34 (:34) 3-J.Fox punts 65 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin. Play 4564 (:34) 3-J.Fox punts 65 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin.
Q400:21 (:21) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to ARI 10 for 8 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 46-J.Campbell). Play 4584 (:21) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to ARI 10 for 8 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 46-J.Campbell).
64
Elapsed share 0.3566666666666667
Game seconds remaining 2316
Half seconds remaining 516
Quarter seconds remaining 516
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1587122014626861 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15871/ NA/0.15147 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:15 Fourth down · ARI (3:15) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to DET 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 38 for 5 yards (0-C.Simon). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0.3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.9244232577223607
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.4458333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1995
Half seconds remaining 195
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 195
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.04558271745190589 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04558/ NA/0.04261 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:57 Kick · DET (:57) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0.21 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.7930106920268845
Yardline 100 27
Elapsed share 0.4841666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 30.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1857
Half seconds remaining 57
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 57
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.965326746880333 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96533/0.96326/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DET 0.45 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:27 Penalty · ARI (14:27) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on DET-95-L.Onwuzurike, Roughing the Passer, 16 yards, enforced at DET 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI 0.13 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 28
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 1
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence ARI 1.49 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 28
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 1
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q413:03 Fourth down · ARI (13:03) 7-J.Brissett sacked at DET 20 for -1 yards (sack split by 97-A.Hutchinson and 44-M.Rodriguez). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0.08 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.2404478848901302
Yardline 100 19
Elapsed share 0.7825
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 783
Half seconds remaining 783
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 783
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.003543451778430253 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00276/0.00354/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:08 Fourth down · DET (13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -4.856430231700322
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.03111111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 30.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3488
Half seconds remaining 1688
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 788
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.676279535415573 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62897/ NA/0.67628 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:56 Fourth down · ARI (5:56) (Shotgun) 14-Mi.Wilson pass short right to 7-J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (46-J.Campbell; 2-E.Rakestraw). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -3.005078370841407
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.1511111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3056
Half seconds remaining 1256
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3813920746414252 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38139/0.31386/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:07 Fourth down · ARI (2:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to ARI 43 for 22 yards (0-C.Simon; 12-B.Gillikin). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -2.329978880444306
Yardline 100 79
Elapsed share 0.2147222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2827
Half seconds remaining 1027
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4558167844434362 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44618/ NA/0.45582 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:30 Fourth down · ARI (14:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 46 for 11 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). DET-85-T.Kennedy was injured during the play. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -1.95700405195538
Yardline 100 89
Elapsed share 0.2583333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2670
Half seconds remaining 870
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 870
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4445679271256229 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41770/ NA/0.44457 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:07 Fumble · ARI (11:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 48 for 31 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (80-S.Fehoko), recovered by DET-17-T.Martin at ARI 47. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -1.561831550401495
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.3147222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2467
Half seconds remaining 667
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 667
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.301017493092629 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29248/ NA/0.30102 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:38 Fourth down · DET (9:38) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -1.414774726396235
Yardline 100 38
Elapsed share 0.3394444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 30.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2378
Half seconds remaining 578
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 578
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7187998760352585 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71880/0.69583/0.65734 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:55 Fourth down · DET (4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -1.033060618093212
Yardline 100 8
Elapsed share 0.4180555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 30.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2095
Half seconds remaining 295
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 295
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8859172861701026 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88592/0.87360/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 24 recorded events Q312:24 Kick · ARI (12:24) 38-C.Ryland 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.625887121586913
Yardline 100 35
Elapsed share 0.5433333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1644
Half seconds remaining 1644
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 744
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.03153013300945184 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02796/0.03153/0.02713 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI -2.24 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:07 Fourth down · DET (1:07) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.2949918756128062
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.7313888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 30.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17 Q402:17 Fourth down · ARI (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.1172989252769109
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.9619444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q400:34 Fourth down · DET (:34) 3-J.Fox punts 65 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.1046143936748855
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.9905555555555555
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 30.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q105:06 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.14 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q105:06 Penalty · DET 38-C.Ryland kicks 60 yards from ARI 35 to DET 5. 25-J.Saylors to DET 31 for 26 yards (84-E.Higgins; 35-K.King). PENALTY on DET-57-A.Ogbongbemiga, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 31. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:46 Penalty · DET (3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 34 for 14 yards (55-D.Barnes). PENALTY on ARI-35-K.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:49 Fumble · DET (1:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 48 for -9 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning) [5-B.Browning], touched at ARI 45, recovered by DET-70-J.Scruggs at ARI 44. + Fumble recoveries above expectation ARI -1.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DET 1.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q100:28 Fourth down · DET (:28) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay. + Fourth down decision cost DET 1.55 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team DET
Home team ARI
Away total 30.5
Home total 25
Total line 55.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -2.087274615621998
Yardline 100 42
Elapsed share 0.2422222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 30.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q215:00 Penalty · ARI (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left tackle to ARI 22 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson). PENALTY on ARI-14-Mi.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:37 Penalty · DET (13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:22 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q209:30 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q208:03 Penalty · DET (8:03) 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at ARI 48 for 4 yards (29-D.Burke; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on ARI-51-R.Lopez, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 48. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:50 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q200:57 Penalty · DET (:57) (Run formation) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:10 Fumble · DET (11:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 33 for 6 yards (5-B.Browning). FUMBLES (5-B.Browning), touched at ARI 40, recovered by DET-69-T.Ratledge at ARI 46. + Fumble recoveries above expectation ARI -1.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DET 1.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q309:42 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q304:22 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.14 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q301:05 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q411:30 Penalty · DET (11:30) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 44 for 16 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 3-B.Baker). PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DET 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:03 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q402:11 Penalty · ARI (Kick formation) PENALTY on ARI-71-J.Gaines, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 15 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:11 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.14 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
SHA-256 160870855781141553c2160785280eddbd2d358b0f57ca161b36e9342a3d1e00
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ce93c37bd93ca979cee3eb940ea4d4b1ce96ea17d089eef49e0869b84ccdead7nflverse-raw-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 11:47 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 67cf0cf83be87708ae9506f9ba768409bd06b710810146cb07ed970317ba4381Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 771b4a733ab3537edd1b57c113f7e596f64f35393ae31f91577d52ae2da4ee11
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 2 · Latest ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 12, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 967
Half seconds remaining 967
Quarter seconds remaining 67
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9935091991342951 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99351/0.99017/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-31
Game seconds remaining 137
Half seconds remaining 137
Quarter seconds remaining 137
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0001655423365998301 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00017/0.00013/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
24
Quarter seconds remaining 34
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9998305231448464 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99972/ NA/0.99983 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 2728
Half seconds remaining 928
Quarter seconds remaining 28
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5112123862889323 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51121/0.50342/0.49576 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled