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Hmm 3 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Penalty patterns were this unusual in 8 of 779 comparison games. How this rating was calculated Hmm (3/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NE by 16.5; actual result: NE by 28.
The 11.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 133 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 49.2%
Penalty pattern Hmm · 3/5 Combined penalty yards: 217 versus 96.7 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 8 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 3.46%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: NE by 3.5; actual result: NE by 28. The difference was 24.5 points.
529 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 21.85%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result An unexpected result Expected margin New England Patriots by 3.5
Final margin New England Patriots by 28
Difference 24.5 points
New England Patriots covered the spread.
529 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (7.3%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score NE by 16.5
Actual final margin NE by 28
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
New England Patriots chance to win during the game 146 preplay estimates across 175 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 29 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
NE Observed ruling consequence 6.83 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Ruling expected points consequence 2.78 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
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Notable plays 1 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 04:35 Recorded game event
New England Patriots · Play 3224 (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LV awarded NE a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.5 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 175 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 175 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at LV 35 for 32 yards (27-E.Davison). Play 40 8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at LV 35 for 32 yards (27-E.Davison).
Q114:54 (14:54) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 39 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane; 91-E.Ponder). Play 53 (14:54) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 39 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane; 91-E.Ponder).
Q114:09 (14:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (22-C.Woods) [53-C.Elliss]. Play 90 (14:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (22-C.Woods) [53-C.Elliss].
Q114:06 (14:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 101 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q104:00 Penalty · NE (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE 7.96 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2934
Half seconds remaining 1134
Quarter seconds remaining 234
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 16dd6beebe0eb11b77cb29c837a78dd038a3e716dc74c646a2a6cb24bd6c00cfnflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 309fbe5f4257d15427d9f1cd17ce828ba0f940c744a25907cbf79e90f4fd3a93This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
133 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 8 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Craig Wrolstad Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.6 accepted penalties for 97 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.6 / 45.3 yd per game. Away teams: 6 / 51.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Craig Wrolstad; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape New England Patriots · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New England Patriots · Opponent penalties Opponent LV was charged 8 penalties for 101 yards.
Las Vegas Raiders · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Las Vegas Raiders · Opponent penalties Opponent NE was charged 12 penalties for 116 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (1) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
New England Patriots Historical context
Winning-profile context NE won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards 336 / 774 prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 146 model estimates across 175 recorded game entries.
29 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (175 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence -3.12 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Ruling expected points consequence -1.28 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence 7.96 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Ruling expected points consequence 2.27 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence -1.82 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Ruling expected points consequence -0.58 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence 0.98 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Ruling expected points consequence 1.68 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence 1 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Ruling expected points consequence 2.54 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Observed ruling consequence -0.13 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NE Ruling expected points consequence -0.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32947/ NA/0.33945 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64113/0.55636/0.60604 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68301/0.64071/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78971/0.80363/0.80794 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0.51 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18312/0.19317/0.18810 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20226/0.21994/0.20451 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96280/ NA/0.96684 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0.25 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02771/0.02519/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00324/0.00126/0.00159 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99845/0.99947/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00024/0.00016/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
NE Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.59 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
LV Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.59 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
NE Field goal points above expectation 0.05 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LV Field goal points above expectation -1.86 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 67th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NE Extra point points above expectation 0.2 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 80th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
LV Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
NE Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LV Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NE Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LV Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NE QB attributed sacks 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LV QB attributed sacks 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NE Catchable targets 26 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LV Catchable targets 27 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NE Contested targets 9 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LV Contested targets 6 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NE Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LV Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
LV Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.25 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.06 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Pass interference called penalties above expectation 3.41 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 4. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.74 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
74 of 74 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 74 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 3.71 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
74 of 74 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 5 across 74 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 41 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NE Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.47 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 41 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 113
(14:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson.
Q114:02 (14:02) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NE 21, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. Play 136 (14:02) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NE 21, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
Q113:56 (13:56) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 25 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean; 97-T.Hemingway). Play 155 (13:56) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 25 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean; 97-T.Hemingway).
Q113:23 (13:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play. Play 177 (13:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play.
Q113:16 (13:16) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 49 for no gain (3-T.Johnson). Play 224 (13:16) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 49 for no gain (3-T.Johnson).
Q112:43 (12:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to LV 35 for 16 yards (35-H.Masses) [98-M.Crosby]. Play 246 (12:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to LV 35 for 16 yards (35-H.Masses) [98-M.Crosby].
Q112:02 (12:02) 32-T.Henderson right tackle to LV 35 for no gain (69-A.Butler; 44-T.Eichenberg). Play 271 (12:02) 32-T.Henderson right tackle to LV 35 for no gain (69-A.Butler; 44-T.Eichenberg).
Q111:30 (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 293 (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q111:23 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Play 319 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q111:23 8-A.Borregales kicks 50 yards from 50 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 20. Play 345 8-A.Borregales kicks 50 yards from 50 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 20.
Q111:23 (11:23) 1-T.Tucker left end pushed ob at LV 25 for 5 yards (28-K.Vildor). Play 369 (11:23) 1-T.Tucker left end pushed ob at LV 25 for 5 yards (28-K.Vildor).
Q110:53 (10:53) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 28 for 3 yards (97-M.Williams; 5-Dr.Jones). Play 396 (10:53) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 28 for 3 yards (97-M.Williams; 5-Dr.Jones).
Q110:11 (10:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 48 for 24 yards (25-M.Jones). Play 418 (10:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 48 for 24 yards (25-M.Jones).
Q109:43 (9:43) (No Huddle) 23-D.Laube left guard to NE 43 for 5 yards (94-C.Durden). Play 443 (9:43) (No Huddle) 23-D.Laube left guard to NE 43 for 5 yards (94-C.Durden).
Q109:09 (9:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 27 for 16 yards (4-C.Woodson). Play 465 (9:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 27 for 16 yards (4-C.Woodson).
Q108:29 (8:29) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play. Play 490 (8:29) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.
Q108:24 (8:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 524 (8:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q108:19 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 550 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q108:19 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NE 6. 18-K.Williams pushed ob at NE 26 for 20 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26. Play 565 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NE 6. 18-K.Williams pushed ob at NE 26 for 20 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26.
Q108:14 (8:14) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 27 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean; 11-J.Chinn). Play 611 (8:14) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 27 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean; 11-J.Chinn).
Q107:34 (7:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to NE 44 for 17 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 633 (7:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to NE 44 for 17 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q106:57 (6:57) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 44 for no gain (44-T.Eichenberg). Play 658 (6:57) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 44 for no gain (44-T.Eichenberg).
Q106:23 (6:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard to LV 48 for 8 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 683 (6:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard to LV 48 for 8 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q105:42 (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at LV 33 for 15 yards. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play. Play 705 (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at LV 33 for 15 yards. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.
Q105:23 (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to LV 48 for 10 yards (7-Q.Walker; 98-M.Crosby). Play 746 (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to LV 48 for 10 yards (7-Q.Walker; 98-M.Crosby).
Q104:35 (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 768 (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q104:00 (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play. Play 798 (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.
Q103:54 (3:54) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 12 for 3 yards (94-F.Fatukasi; 95-K.Paye). Play 832 (3:54) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 12 for 3 yards (94-F.Fatukasi; 95-K.Paye).
Q103:20 (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson to LV 8 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 854 (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson to LV 8 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q102:39 (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry (11-J.Chinn). Play 884 (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry (11-J.Chinn).
Q102:34 (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 907 (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q101:55 (1:55) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play. Play 932 (1:55) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play.
Q101:37 (1:37) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 958 (1:37) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q101:30 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 981 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q101:30 8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (54-D.Muasau). Play 996 8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (54-D.Muasau).
Q101:26 (1:26) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LV 31 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane). Play 1037 (1:26) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LV 31 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).
Q100:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 36 for 5 yards (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss). Play 1059 (:47) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 36 for 5 yards (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss).
Q100:12 (:12) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward right guard to LV 38 for 2 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play. Play 1081 (:12) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward right guard to LV 38 for 2 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play.
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1116 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White (22-C.Woods) [91-E.Ponder]. Play 1136 (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White (22-C.Woods) [91-E.Ponder].
Q214:56 (14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23. Play 1164 (14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23.
Q214:43 (14:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 86-E.Chism. Play 1201 (14:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 86-E.Chism.
Q214:37 (14:37) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 40 for 12 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 1231 (14:37) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 40 for 12 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q213:58 (13:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 47 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-T.Stukes). Play 1253 (13:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 47 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-T.Stukes).
Q213:23 (13:23) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 49 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). Play 1278 (13:23) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 49 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler).
Q212:42 (12:42) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play. Play 1300 (12:42) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.
Q212:34 (12:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NE 43 for 4 yards. Lateral to 32-T.Henderson pushed ob at LV 45 for 12 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 1345 (12:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NE 43 for 4 yards. Lateral to 32-T.Henderson pushed ob at LV 45 for 12 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q212:01 (12:01) 32-T.Henderson left end pushed ob at LV 34 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 1385 (12:01) 32-T.Henderson left end pushed ob at LV 34 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q211:34 (11:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Doubs (26-D.Porter). Play 1412 (11:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Doubs (26-D.Porter).
Q211:28 (11:28) 38-R.Stevenson left end to LV 30 for 4 yards (44-T.Eichenberg; 26-D.Porter). NE-66-W.Campbell was injured during the play. Play 1435 (11:28) 38-R.Stevenson left end to LV 30 for 4 yards (44-T.Eichenberg; 26-D.Porter). NE-66-W.Campbell was injured during the play.
Q211:08 (11:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle [3-T.Johnson]. PENALTY on NE-10-D.Maye, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 30. Play 1460 (11:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle [3-T.Johnson]. PENALTY on NE-10-D.Maye, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 30.
Q211:00 (11:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-50-G.Jacas. Play 1501 (11:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-50-G.Jacas.
Q210:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker ran ob at LV 23 for 10 yards. Play 1521 (10:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker ran ob at LV 23 for 10 yards.
Q210:25 (10:25) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 25 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss). Play 1558 (10:25) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 25 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q209:47 (9:47) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 27 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss; 5-Dr.Jones). Play 1593 (9:47) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 27 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss; 5-Dr.Jones).
Q209:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 45 for 18 yards (25-M.Jones). Play 1615 (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 45 for 18 yards (25-M.Jones).
Q208:41 (8:41) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on LV-58-J.Powers-Johnson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play. Play 1645 (8:41) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on LV-58-J.Powers-Johnson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play.
Q208:35 Timeout #1 by LV at 08:35. Play 1691 Timeout #1 by LV at 08:35.
Q208:35 (8:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at NE 49 for 11 yards (28-K.Vildor). Play 1679 (8:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at NE 49 for 11 yards (28-K.Vildor).
Q208:06 (8:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to NE 49 for no gain (4-C.Woodson; 23-J.Reed). Play 1716 (8:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to NE 49 for no gain (4-C.Woodson; 23-J.Reed).
Q207:25 (7:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 35 for 14 yards (4-C.Woodson). Play 1738 (7:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 35 for 14 yards (4-C.Woodson).
Q206:45 (6:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 82-C.White. Play 1763 (6:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 82-C.White.
Q206:42 (6:42) 23-D.Laube right end to NE 36 for -1 yards (50-G.Jacas). Play 1786 (6:42) 23-D.Laube right end to NE 36 for -1 yards (50-G.Jacas).
Q206:03 (6:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NE 40 for -4 yards (91-E.Ponder). Play 1808 (6:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NE 40 for -4 yards (91-E.Ponder).
Q205:20 (5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback. Play 1828 (5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.
Q205:12 (5:12) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 86-E.Chism to NE 35 for 15 yards (3-T.Johnson; 17-N.Dean). Play 1846 (5:12) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 86-E.Chism to NE 35 for 15 yards (3-T.Johnson; 17-N.Dean).
Q204:33 (4:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 1883 (4:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q204:27 (4:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NE 30 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss). Play 1932 (4:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NE 30 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q203:58 (3:58) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NE 27 for 3 yards (23-J.Reed; 14-R.Spillane). Play 1957 (3:58) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NE 27 for 3 yards (23-J.Reed; 14-R.Spillane).
Q203:19 (3:19) 1-T.Tucker right tackle to NE 38 for -11 yards (5-Dr.Jones). Play 1979 (3:19) 1-T.Tucker right tackle to NE 38 for -11 yards (5-Dr.Jones).
Q202:43 (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 23-D.Laube to NE 31 for 7 yards (22-C.Woods). Play 2001 (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 23-D.Laube to NE 31 for 7 yards (22-C.Woods).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 1-T.Tucker [31-K.Byard]. Play 2026 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 1-T.Tucker [31-K.Byard].
Q201:56 (1:56) 14-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 2065 (1:56) 14-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q201:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 46 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 2086 (1:52) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 46 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q201:23 (1:23) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end to LV 34 for 20 yards (26-D.Porter). Play 2115 (1:23) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end to LV 34 for 20 yards (26-D.Porter).
Q200:48 (:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LV 37 for -3 yards (sack split by 96-J.Laulu and 51-M.Koonce). Play 2137 (:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LV 37 for -3 yards (sack split by 96-J.Laulu and 51-M.Koonce).
Q200:38 Timeout #1 by NE at 00:38. Play 2169 Timeout #1 by NE at 00:38.
Q200:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to LV 11 for 26 yards (7-Q.Walker; 26-D.Porter). Play 2157 (:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to LV 11 for 26 yards (7-Q.Walker; 26-D.Porter).
Q200:28 Timeout #2 by NE at 00:28. Play 2201 Timeout #2 by NE at 00:28.
Q200:28 (:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-17-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined. Play 2189 (:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-17-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q200:24 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 2233 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q200:24 8-A.Borregales kicks 58 yards from NE 35 to LV 7. 23-D.Laube to LV 31 for 24 yards (35-K.Britt). Play 2248 8-A.Borregales kicks 58 yards from NE 35 to LV 7. 23-D.Laube to LV 31 for 24 yards (35-K.Britt).
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 22 for -9 yards (91-E.Ponder). FUMBLES (91-E.Ponder) [91-E.Ponder], touched at LV 20, recovered by LV-87-M.Mayer at LV 20. Play 2271 (:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 22 for -9 yards (91-E.Ponder). FUMBLES (91-E.Ponder) [91-E.Ponder], touched at LV 20, recovered by LV-87-M.Mayer at LV 20.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2301 Q315:00 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NE 5. 18-K.Williams to NE 32 for 27 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). Play 2321 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NE 5. 18-K.Williams to NE 32 for 27 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).
Q314:55 (14:55) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at NE 45 for 13 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 2344 (14:55) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at NE 45 for 13 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q314:31 (14:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to LV 42 for 13 yards (5-E.Stokes). Penalty on LV-35-H.Masses, Illegal Contact, declined. Play 2374 (14:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to LV 42 for 13 yards (5-E.Stokes). Penalty on LV-35-H.Masses, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q314:07 (14:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play. Play 2410 (14:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.
Q314:02 (14:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 19 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-18-K.Williams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play. Play 2444 (14:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 19 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-18-K.Williams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play.
Q313:39 (13:39) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to LV 34 for 1 yard (7-Q.Walker; 17-N.Dean). Play 2485 (13:39) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to LV 34 for 1 yard (7-Q.Walker; 17-N.Dean).
Q313:04 (13:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 18-K.Williams for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2507 (13:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 18-K.Williams for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q312:58 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 2533 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q312:58 8-A.Borregales kicks 58 yards from NE 35 to LV 7. 23-D.Laube to LV 32 for 25 yards (36-C.Latu). Play 2548 8-A.Borregales kicks 58 yards from NE 35 to LV 7. 23-D.Laube to LV 32 for 25 yards (36-C.Latu).
Q312:54 (12:54) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 36 for 4 yards (22-C.Woods; 14-R.Spillane). Play 2578 (12:54) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 36 for 4 yards (22-C.Woods; 14-R.Spillane).
Q312:26 (12:26) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 37 for 1 yard (5-Dr.Jones; 53-C.Elliss). Play 2600 (12:26) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 37 for 1 yard (5-Dr.Jones; 53-C.Elliss).
Q311:45 (11:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (28-K.Vildor). Play 2622 (11:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (28-K.Vildor).
Q311:38 (11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25. Play 2645 (11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25.
Q311:26 (11:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 21 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker; 44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play. Play 2682 (11:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 21 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker; 44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play.
Q311:13 (11:13) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left. Play 2722 (11:13) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left.
Q311:07 (11:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay. Play 2745 (11:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay.
Q310:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 18-K.Williams to NE 15 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 2775 (10:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 18-K.Williams to NE 15 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q309:59 (9:59) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to LV 31, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 49 for 18 yards (54-D.Muasau). Play 2840 (9:59) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to LV 31, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 49 for 18 yards (54-D.Muasau).
Q309:48 (9:48) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to NE 24 for 27 yards (25-M.Jones; 22-C.Woods). Play 2866 (9:48) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to NE 24 for 27 yards (25-M.Jones; 22-C.Woods).
Q309:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 27 for -3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play. Play 2901 (9:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 27 for -3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q308:45 (8:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty. Play 2929 (8:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty.
Q308:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty. Play 2957 (8:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty.
Q308:34 (8:34) 14-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 2985 (8:34) 14-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q308:30 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NE 5. 18-K.Williams to NE 29 for 24 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). Play 3005 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NE 5. 18-K.Williams to NE 29 for 24 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).
Q308:25 (8:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at NE 29 for no gain (3-T.Johnson). Play 3035 (8:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at NE 29 for no gain (3-T.Johnson).
Q308:00 (8:00) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 34 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean; 94-F.Fatukasi). Play 3065 (8:00) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 34 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean; 94-F.Fatukasi).
Q307:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to 50 for 16 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 3087 (7:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to 50 for 16 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q306:43 (6:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at LV 19 for 31 yards (26-D.Porter). Play 3112 (6:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at LV 19 for 31 yards (26-D.Porter).
Q306:13 (6:13) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner left guard to LV 14 for 5 yards (99-T.Booker; 96-J.Laulu). Play 3142 (6:13) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner left guard to LV 14 for 5 yards (99-T.Booker; 96-J.Laulu).
Q305:36 (5:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to LV 11 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-84-T.Arkin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 14 - No Play. Play 3164 (5:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to LV 11 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-84-T.Arkin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 14 - No Play.
Q305:10 (5:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at LV 16 for 8 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 3197 (5:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at LV 16 for 8 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q304:35 (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play. Play 3224 (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play.
Q304:31 (4:31) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 12 - No Play. Play 3258 (4:31) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 12 - No Play.
Q304:31 (4:31) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon to LV 17 for no gain (11-J.Chinn). Play 3282 (4:31) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon to LV 17 for no gain (11-J.Chinn).
Q303:51 (3:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 3 for 14 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 3307 (3:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 3 for 14 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q303:14 (3:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3337 (3:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q303:10 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 3365 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q303:10 8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (9-C.Kiner). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LV 27. Play 3380 8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (9-C.Kiner). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LV 27.
Q303:00 (3:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 44 for 2 yards (91-E.Ponder). Play 3424 (3:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 44 for 2 yards (91-E.Ponder).
Q302:42 (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-M.Washington to LV 49 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss). Play 3449 (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-M.Washington to LV 49 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q302:11 (2:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers [50-G.Jacas]. Play 3474 (2:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers [50-G.Jacas].
Q302:04 (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34. Play 3497 (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34.
Q301:55 (1:55) 86-E.Chism left end to NE 36 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean; 51-M.Koonce). Play 3538 (1:55) 86-E.Chism left end to NE 36 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean; 51-M.Koonce).
Q301:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon to NE 42 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn) [95-K.Paye]. Play 3560 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon to NE 42 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn) [95-K.Paye].
Q300:36 (:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams to LV 9 for 49 yards (26-D.Porter). Play 3585 (:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams to LV 9 for 49 yards (26-D.Porter).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3610 Q415:00 (15:00) 38-R.Stevenson left end to LV 9 for no gain (26-D.Porter). Play 3630 (15:00) 38-R.Stevenson left end to LV 9 for no gain (26-D.Porter).
Q414:26 (14:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right. Play 3652 (14:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right.
Q414:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs (26-D.Porter). Play 3675 (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs (26-D.Porter).
Q414:15 (14:15) 8-A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. Play 3698 (14:15) 8-A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q414:12 8-A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to LV 6. 23-D.Laube to LV 26 for 20 yards (49-E.Hunter). Play 3718 8-A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to LV 6. 23-D.Laube to LV 26 for 20 yards (49-E.Hunter).
Q414:06 (14:06) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 37 for 11 yards (33-M.Brown). Play 3748 (14:06) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 37 for 11 yards (33-M.Brown).
Q413:42 (13:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 29 for -8 yards (93-L.Taylor). Play 3773 (13:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 29 for -8 yards (93-L.Taylor).
Q413:12 (13:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 43 for 28 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). NE-5-Dr.Jones was injured during the play. Play 3793 (13:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 43 for 28 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). NE-5-Dr.Jones was injured during the play.
Q412:42 (12:42) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NE 40 for 3 yards (53-C.Elliss; 91-E.Ponder). Play 3821 (12:42) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NE 40 for 3 yards (53-C.Elliss; 91-E.Ponder).
Q412:21 (12:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty pushed ob at NE 9 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard; 33-M.Brown). Play 3843 (12:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty pushed ob at NE 9 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard; 33-M.Brown).
Q411:49 (11:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to NE 5 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas). Play 3873 (11:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to NE 5 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas).
Q411:28 (11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to NE 2 for 3 yards (91-E.Ponder). Play 3898 (11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to NE 2 for 3 yards (91-E.Ponder).
Q410:54 Timeout #1 by NE at 10:54. Play 3932 Timeout #1 by NE at 10:54.
Q410:54 (10:54) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-94-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-99-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. Play 3920 (10:54) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-94-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-99-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q410:49 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 3971 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q410:49 14-M.Gay kicks onside 9 yards from LV 35 to LV 44. 85-H.Henry (didn't try to advance) to LV 44 for no gain. Play 3993 14-M.Gay kicks onside 9 yards from LV 35 to LV 44. 85-H.Henry (didn't try to advance) to LV 44 for no gain.
Q410:48 (10:48) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 43 for 1 yard (31-T.Stukes). Play 4022 (10:48) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 43 for 1 yard (31-T.Stukes).
Q410:11 (10:11) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at LV 36 for 7 yards (26-D.Porter). Play 4044 (10:11) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at LV 36 for 7 yards (26-D.Porter).
Q409:39 (9:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to LV 28 for 8 yards (28-J.McCoy). Play 4074 (9:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to LV 28 for 8 yards (28-J.McCoy).
Q408:54 (8:54) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to LV 25 for 3 yards (99-T.Booker). Play 4099 (8:54) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to LV 25 for 3 yards (99-T.Booker).
Q408:11 (8:11) 9-C.Kiner right tackle to LV 15 for 10 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 4121 (8:11) 9-C.Kiner right tackle to LV 15 for 10 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q407:31 (7:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 9-C.Kiner to LV 8 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 4143 (7:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 9-C.Kiner to LV 8 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q406:50 (6:50) 9-C.Kiner left guard to LV 8 for no gain (3-T.Johnson). Play 4168 (6:50) 9-C.Kiner left guard to LV 8 for no gain (3-T.Johnson).
Q406:11 (6:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4190 (6:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q406:06 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-94-C.Durden has returned to the game. Play 4216 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-94-C.Durden has returned to the game.
Q406:06 8-A.Borregales kicks 65 yards from NE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35. Play 4236 8-A.Borregales kicks 65 yards from NE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35.
Q406:06 (6:06) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube left guard to LV 38 for 3 yards (48-N.Obiazor). Play 4256 (6:06) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube left guard to LV 38 for 3 yards (48-N.Obiazor).
Q405:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short middle to 23-D.Laube to LV 40 for 2 yards (54-D.Muasau). Play 4278 (5:30) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short middle to 23-D.Laube to LV 40 for 2 yards (54-D.Muasau).
Q404:54 (4:54) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short right to 80-I.Thomas to LV 49 for 9 yards (97-M.Williams). Play 4303 (4:54) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short right to 80-I.Thomas to LV 49 for 9 yards (97-M.Williams).
Q404:31 (4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to NE 35 for 16 yards (28-K.Vildor). Play 4328 (4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to NE 35 for 16 yards (28-K.Vildor).
Q404:06 (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short middle to 83-D.Thompkins to NE 27 for 8 yards (33-M.Brown; 54-D.Muasau). Play 4357 (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short middle to 83-D.Thompkins to NE 27 for 8 yards (33-M.Brown; 54-D.Muasau).
Q403:43 (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short left to 23-D.Laube to NE 20 for 7 yards (54-D.Muasau). Play 4382 (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short left to 23-D.Laube to NE 20 for 7 yards (54-D.Muasau).
Q403:15 (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson. Play 4407 (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson.
Q403:11 (3:11) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short left to 19-M.Benson to NE 14 for 6 yards (27-E.Davison). Play 4442 (3:11) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short left to 19-M.Benson to NE 14 for 6 yards (27-E.Davison).
Q402:45 (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson (27-E.Davison) [99-Da.Jones]. Play 4467 (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson (27-E.Davison) [99-Da.Jones].
Q402:42 (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 11 for 3 yards (33-M.Brown). Play 4490 (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 11 for 3 yards (33-M.Brown).
Q402:34 (2:34) 9-C.Kiner right tackle to NE 43 for 32 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 4517 (2:34) 9-C.Kiner right tackle to NE 43 for 32 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q402:00 (2:00) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 42 for -1 yards. Play 4539 (2:00) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 42 for -1 yards.
Q401:20 (1:20) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 40 for -2 yards. Play 4568 (1:20) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 40 for -2 yards.
Q400:41 (:41) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 39 for -1 yards. Play 4590 (:41) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 39 for -1 yards.
Down
2
Game seconds remaining 2934
Half seconds remaining 1134
Quarter seconds remaining 234
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE 2.27 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2934
Half seconds remaining 1134
Quarter seconds remaining 234
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2934
Half seconds remaining 1134
Quarter seconds remaining 234
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:23 Penalty · NE (13:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE 6.83 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 6
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE 2.78 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 6
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q108:29 Penalty · LV (8:29) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE -3.12 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3204
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3204
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE -1.28 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3204
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3204
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q101:55 Penalty · NE (1:55) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE -1.82 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 5
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2815
Half seconds remaining 1015
Quarter seconds remaining 115
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2815
Half seconds remaining 1015
Quarter seconds remaining 115
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE -0.58 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 5
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2815
Half seconds remaining 1015
Quarter seconds remaining 115
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2815
Half seconds remaining 1015
Quarter seconds remaining 115
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q304:35 Penalty · NE (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE 1 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 7
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE 2.54 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 7
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q314:07 Penalty · NE (14:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE 0.98 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 1742
Half seconds remaining 1742
Quarter seconds remaining 842
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 1742
Half seconds remaining 1742
Quarter seconds remaining 842
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE 1.68 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 1742
Half seconds remaining 1742
Quarter seconds remaining 842
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 1742
Half seconds remaining 1742
Quarter seconds remaining 842
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q308:34 Kick · LV (8:34) 14-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0.25 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.308471469771845
Yardline 100 27
Elapsed share 0.6072222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1414
Half seconds remaining 1414
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 514
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.02771495367248128 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02771/0.02519/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV -1.86 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q304:31 Penalty · NE (4:31) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 12 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE -0.13 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 15
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE -0.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 15
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 18
Game seconds remaining 1171
Half seconds remaining 1171
Quarter seconds remaining 271
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q114:02 Fourth down · LV (14:02) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NE 21, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 3.281558703670004
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.01611111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3542
Half seconds remaining 1742
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 842
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3394498164389669 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32947/ NA/0.33945 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:35 Fourth down · NE (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson). + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.747731260097467
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.1736111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2975
Half seconds remaining 1175
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 275
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6411250350404174 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64113/0.55636/0.60604 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q102:34 Fourth down · NE (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes). + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.527869191780766
Yardline 100 8
Elapsed share 0.2072222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2854
Half seconds remaining 1054
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 154
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6830082441661292 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68301/0.64071/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q201:56 Kick · LV (1:56) 14-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.5388337794169393
Yardline 100 31
Elapsed share 0.4677777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1916
Half seconds remaining 116
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 116
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2199430304498378 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20226/0.21994/0.20451 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV -1.86 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 89 recorded events Q309:59 Fourth down · NE (9:59) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to LV 31, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 49 for 18 yards (54-D.Muasau). + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.3390249837468204
Yardline 100 85
Elapsed share 0.5836111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 21
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1499
Half seconds remaining 1499
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 599
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.966838457609614 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96280/ NA/0.96684 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:04 Fumble · LV (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.199995731786994
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.7155555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko Q414:15 Kick · NE (14:15) 8-A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.1657562353689933
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.7625
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 25 Q402:42 Fourth down · LV (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 11 for 3 yards (33-M.Brown). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.07674730312991568
Yardline 100 14
Elapsed share 0.955
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q111:23 Penalty · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q108:19 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q108:19 Penalty · NE 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NE 6. 18-K.Williams pushed ob at NE 26 for 20 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:42 Penalty · NE (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at LV 33 for 15 yards. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:30 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q100:12 Penalty · LV (:12) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward right guard to LV 38 for 2 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:56 Penalty · LV (14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:42 Penalty · NE (12:42) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:08 Penalty · NE (11:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle [3-T.Johnson]. PENALTY on NE-10-D.Maye, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 30. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:00 Fourth down · NE (11:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 27 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-50-G.Jacas. + Fourth down decision cost NE 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NE
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.9861925118323542
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.3166666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q208:41 Penalty · LV (8:41) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on LV-58-J.Powers-Johnson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:20 Fourth down · LV (5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0.51 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team LV
Home team NE
Away total 21
Home total 24.5
Total line 45.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.6759193762535193
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.4111111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q204:33 Fumble · NE (4:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NE -0.59 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 0.59 recoveries
Q200:28 Fourth down · NE (:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-17-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q200:24 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q200:18 Fumble · LV (:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 22 for -9 yards (91-E.Ponder). FUMBLES (91-E.Ponder) [91-E.Ponder], touched at LV 20, recovered by LV-87-M.Mayer at LV 20. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NE -0.59 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 0.59 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q314:31 Fourth down · NE (14:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to LV 42 for 13 yards (5-E.Stokes). Penalty on LV-35-H.Masses, Illegal Contact, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q314:02 Penalty · NE (14:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 19 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-18-K.Williams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:58 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q311:38 Penalty · LV (11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:26 Penalty · NE (11:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 21 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker; 44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:36 Penalty · NE (5:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to LV 11 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-84-T.Arkin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:10 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q303:10 Penalty · LV 8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (9-C.Kiner). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LV 27. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:54 Fourth down · LV (10:54) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-94-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-99-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:49 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q406:06 Kick · NE 8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-94-C.Durden has returned to the game. + Extra point points above expectation NE 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q308:45 Execution · LV (8:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty. + Charted drops LV 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q200:48 Execution · NE (:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LV 37 for -3 yards (sack split by 96-J.Laulu and 51-M.Koonce). + QB attributed sacks NE 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:42 Execution · LV (13:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 29 for -8 yards (93-L.Taylor). + QB attributed sacks LV 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q112:43 Execution · NE (12:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to LV 35 for 16 yards (35-H.Masses) [98-M.Crosby]. + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q111:30 Execution · NE (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q107:34 Execution · NE (7:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to NE 44 for 17 yards (31-T.Stukes). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q103:20 Execution · NE (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson to LV 8 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q213:58 Execution · NE (13:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 47 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-T.Stukes). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q212:34 Execution · NE (12:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NE 43 for 4 yards. Lateral to 32-T.Henderson pushed ob at LV 45 for 12 yards (17-N.Dean). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q205:12 Execution · NE (5:12) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 86-E.Chism to NE 35 for 15 yards (3-T.Johnson; 17-N.Dean). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q200:38 Execution · NE (:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to LV 11 for 26 yards (7-Q.Walker; 26-D.Porter). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q314:55 Execution · NE (14:55) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at NE 45 for 13 yards (3-T.Johnson). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q313:04 Execution · NE (13:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 18-K.Williams for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q310:50 Execution · NE (10:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 18-K.Williams to NE 15 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q308:25 Execution · NE (8:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at NE 29 for no gain (3-T.Johnson). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q307:22 Execution · NE (7:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to 50 for 16 yards (5-E.Stokes). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q306:43 Execution · NE (6:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at LV 19 for 31 yards (26-D.Porter). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q304:31 Execution · NE (4:31) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon to LV 17 for no gain (11-J.Chinn). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q303:51 Execution · NE (3:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 3 for 14 yards (17-N.Dean). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q301:15 Execution · NE (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon to NE 42 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn) [95-K.Paye]. + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q300:36 Execution · NE (:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams to LV 9 for 49 yards (26-D.Porter). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q410:11 Execution · NE (10:11) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon pushed ob at LV 36 for 7 yards (26-D.Porter). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q409:39 Execution · NE (9:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to LV 28 for 8 yards (28-J.McCoy). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q407:31 Execution · NE (7:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 9-C.Kiner to LV 8 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean). + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q406:11 Execution · NE (6:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets NE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q110:11 Execution · LV (10:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 48 for 24 yards (25-M.Jones). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Contested targets LV 6 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions LV 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q109:09 Execution · LV (9:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 27 for 16 yards (4-C.Woodson). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q108:24 Execution · LV (8:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Contested targets LV 6 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q210:51 Execution · LV (10:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker ran ob at LV 23 for 10 yards. + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q210:25 Execution · LV (10:25) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 25 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q209:14 Execution · LV (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 45 for 18 yards (25-M.Jones). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q208:35 Execution · LV (8:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at NE 49 for 11 yards (28-K.Vildor). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q207:25 Execution · LV (7:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 35 for 14 yards (4-C.Woodson). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q204:27 Execution · LV (4:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NE 30 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q202:43 Execution · LV (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 23-D.Laube to NE 31 for 7 yards (22-C.Woods). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q309:48 Execution · LV (9:48) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to NE 24 for 27 yards (25-M.Jones; 22-C.Woods). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q309:17 Execution · LV (9:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 27 for -3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play. + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Contested targets LV 6 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q303:00 Execution · LV (3:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 44 for 2 yards (91-E.Ponder). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q302:42 Execution · LV (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-M.Washington to LV 49 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q414:06 Execution · LV (14:06) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 37 for 11 yards (33-M.Brown). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q413:12 Execution · LV (13:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 43 for 28 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). NE-5-Dr.Jones was injured during the play. + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q412:21 Execution · LV (12:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty pushed ob at NE 9 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard; 33-M.Brown). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q411:49 Execution · LV (11:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to NE 5 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q405:30 Execution · LV (5:30) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short middle to 23-D.Laube to LV 40 for 2 yards (54-D.Muasau). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q404:54 Execution · LV (4:54) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short right to 80-I.Thomas to LV 49 for 9 yards (97-M.Williams). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q404:31 Execution · LV (4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to NE 35 for 16 yards (28-K.Vildor). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q404:06 Execution · LV (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short middle to 83-D.Thompkins to NE 27 for 8 yards (33-M.Brown; 54-D.Muasau). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q403:43 Execution · LV (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short left to 23-D.Laube to NE 20 for 7 yards (54-D.Muasau). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q403:15 Execution · LV (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson. + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q403:11 Execution · LV (3:11) (Shotgun) 15-F.Mendoza pass short left to 19-M.Benson to NE 14 for 6 yards (27-E.Davison). + Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q102:39 Execution · NE (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry (11-J.Chinn). + Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q214:43 Execution · NE (14:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 86-E.Chism. + Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q211:34 Execution · NE (11:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Doubs (26-D.Porter). + Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q311:07 Execution · NE (11:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay. + Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q414:19 Execution · NE (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs (26-D.Porter). + Contested targets NE 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Q114:09 Execution · LV (14:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (22-C.Woods) [53-C.Elliss]. + Contested targets LV 6 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q114:06 Execution · LV (14:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson. + Contested targets LV 6 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q311:45 Execution · LV (11:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (28-K.Vildor). + Contested targets LV 6 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
ftn-via-nflverse Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 7:55 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 410505a325bed44bf3a0b77cc3f7b4e96dd1f57ce8662175899f1c6cda359ede
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 14, 2026, 12:15 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 60ab22a4889cbf6e9a0646a8caa3ac1af4b0b2aaa7c9bcd25885e0a58bf7940bModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: afd209da0ba4634558560f063362a7cd8c083b3e42bf6ea7b2d70ac26d5d17cc
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 15 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 14, 2026, 1:19 AM UTC Version 14 ↗ Updated source data
8 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 13, 2026, 9:34 PM UTC Version 13 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 13, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC Version 12 ↗ Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 13, 2026, 12:59 PM UTC Version 11 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 13, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC Version 10 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 13, 2026, 1:33 AM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 10:13 PM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 12, 2026, 7:56 PM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 4:27 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 6:31 AM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 12, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 11, 2026, 10:51 PM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
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Oct 11, 2026, 9:16 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1024
Half seconds remaining 1024
Quarter seconds remaining 124
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.003235112064492305 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00324/0.00126/0.00159 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NE -0.59 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 0.59 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets LV 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 855
Half seconds remaining 855
Quarter seconds remaining 855
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9994681268112148 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99845/0.99947/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NE 0.05 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-28
Game seconds remaining 162
Half seconds remaining 162
Quarter seconds remaining 162
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0002431881305901975 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00024/0.00016/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 2460
Half seconds remaining 660
Quarter seconds remaining 660
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8079397010262122 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78971/0.80363/0.80794 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 2120
Half seconds remaining 320
Quarter seconds remaining 320
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.1931738233151003 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18312/0.19317/0.18810 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 34/34 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled