Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opening the record…
Opening the record…
FINAL SCORE
GAME RATING
Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
| Game statistic | CHIWIN | ATLLOSS |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 31 | 23 |
| Total offensive yards | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Penalties | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Penalty yards | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover margin | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Non-offensive touchdowns | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Chicago Bears covered the spread.
4,411 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (60.6%).
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
| Comparison | CHI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Actual | — / — yd | — / — yd |
| Expected for this matchup | 6.1 / 49.2 yd | 5.4 / 42.5 yd |
| League average | 6 / 49.5 yd | 6 / 49.5 yd |
| Team’s usual penalties | 6.1 / 51.3 yd · 85 games | 5.3 / 44 yd · 85 games |
| Opponent usually draws | 6.3 / 50.6 yd · 85 games | 5.3 / 41.2 yd · 85 games |
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
Assignment: Football Zebras
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.9 accepted penalties for 94.9 yards across both teams.
| Team history with this referee | CHI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 4 |
| Wins–losses–ties |
Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385HOW THE GAME MOVED
How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Loading fan feedback…
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
(12:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 5.7 percentage points across this play.
(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 41 for 9 yards (12-D.Bush). PENALTY on ATL-7-Bi.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 2.0 percentage points across this play.
(2:46) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 24 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
GAME
6-N.Folk kicks 56 yards from ATL 35 to CHI 9. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 33 for 24 yards (23-D.Hellams).
(14:54) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland pushed ob at CHI 49 for 16 yards (21-M.Hughes) [99-C.Thomas].
(14:19) 4-D.Swift up the middle to ATL 47 for 4 yards (92-M.Smith; 0-D.Deablo).
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
3.6 percentage points Supported
Updates automatically when source data changes.
The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bRetrieved Oct 16, 2026, 4:40 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 1299b41dc9943e63cb87331f826297130577fcac5528451b01e4aa3f58765ce6Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0
| 2–4–0 |
| 3–1–0 |
| Team penalties per game | 6.2 / 62.2 yd | 6 / 49.8 yd |
|---|
Home teams: 6.1 / 49.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.8 / 45.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Scott Novak; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7146 model estimates across 176 recorded game entries.
30 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
| Period | Clock | Source play | ATL win chance | Estimate source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 1 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 40 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 14:54 | Play 63 ↗ | 56.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:19 | Play 93 ↗ | 52.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:48 | Play 115 ↗ | 53.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:06 | Play 140 ↗ | 49.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:57 | Play 164 ↗ | 53.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:15 | Play 189 ↗ | 50.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:07 | Play 212 ↗ | 55.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:24 | Play 249 ↗ | 57.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:53 | Play 289 ↗ | 45.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:17 | Play 316 ↗ | 44.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:33 | Play 338 ↗ | 42.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:47 | Play 360 ↗ | 42.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:25 | Play 384 ↗ | 45.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:15 | Play 410 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 08:15 | Play 425 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 08:10 | Play 455 ↗ | 37.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:38 | Play 477 ↗ | 37.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:56 | Play 502 ↗ | 35.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:48 | Play 525 ↗ | 33.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:34 | Play 554 ↗ | 30.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:56 | Play 583 ↗ | 32.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:15 | Play 610 ↗ | 35.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:28 | Play 635 ↗ | 28.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:52 | Play 665 ↗ | 24.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:09 | Play 690 ↗ | 22.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:26 | Play 712 ↗ | 21.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:52 | Play 742 ↗ | 22.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:10 | Play 764 ↗ | 22.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:07 | Play 787 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 01:07 | Play 802 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 01:00 | Play 835 ↗ | 19.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:22 | Play 860 ↗ | 19.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:00 | Play 885 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 15:00 | Play 905 ↗ | 16.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:57 | Play 928 ↗ | 15.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:45 | Play 954 ↗ | 15.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:01 | Play 979 ↗ | 14.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:20 | Play 1004 ↗ | 13.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:42 | Play 1026 ↗ | 14.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:08 | Play 1048 ↗ | 15.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:04 | Play 1071 ↗ | 16.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:56 | Play 1089 ↗ | 18.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:34 | Play 1128 ↗ | 20.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:56 | Play 1150 ↗ | 20.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:50 | Play 1173 ↗ | 19.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:09 | Play 1198 ↗ | 18.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:29 | Play 1220 ↗ | 15.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:25 | Play 1243 ↗ | 13.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:16 | Play 1284 ↗ | 12.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:52 | Play 1320 ↗ | 14.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:12 | Play 1345 ↗ | 13.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:29 | Play 1367 ↗ | 13.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:23 | Play 1390 ↗ | 15.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:19 | Play 1411 ↗ | 20.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:36 | Play 1443 ↗ | 25.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:53 | Play 1465 ↗ | 23.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:49 | Play 1488 ↗ | 21.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:45 | Play 1514 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 05:45 | Play 1529 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 05:36 | Play 1559 ↗ | 32.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:00 | Play 1581 ↗ | 30.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:27 | Play 1623 ↗ | 29.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:55 | Play 1661 ↗ | 31.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:13 | Play 1683 ↗ | 32.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:39 | Play 1713 ↗ | 28.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:00 | Play 1749 ↗ | 32.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:52 | Play 1798 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:52 | Play 1786 ↗ | 28.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:43 | Play 1825 ↗ | 18.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:35 | Play 1855 ↗ | 17.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:30 | Play 1890 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:30 | Play 1878 ↗ | 15.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:26 | Play 1916 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:26 | Play 1931 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:19 | Play 1954 ↗ | 16.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:14 | Play 1977 ↗ | 14.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:09 | Play 2014 ↗ | 16.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:05 | Play 2037 ↗ | 15.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:02 | Play 2127 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:02 | Play 2115 ↗ | 12.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:56 | Play 2158 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:56 | Play 2146 ↗ | 13.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:47 | Play 2183 ↗ | 11.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:41 | Play 2213 ↗ | 12.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:33 | Play 2248 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:33 | Play 2236 ↗ | 15.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:00 | Play 2267 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 15:00 | Play 2287 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 14:54 | Play 2310 ↗ | 13.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:49 | Play 2344 ↗ | 15.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:04 | Play 2369 ↗ | 14.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:33 | Play 2396 ↗ | 14.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:48 | Play 2416 ↗ | 10.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:41 | Play 2447 ↗ | 16.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:03 | Play 2469 ↗ | 15.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:23 | Play 2494 ↗ | 12.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:38 | Play 2519 ↗ | 13.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:32 | Play 2542 ↗ | 9.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:01 | Play 2574 ↗ | 9.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:28 | Play 2599 ↗ | 8.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:48 | Play 2624 ↗ | 7.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:15 | Play 2657 ↗ | 7.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:09 | Play 2687 ↗ | 8.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:31 | Play 2717 ↗ | 8.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:57 | Play 2755 ↗ | 9.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:45 | Play 2781 ↗ | 8.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:07 | Play 2803 ↗ | 7.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:41 | Play 2836 ↗ | 7.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:53 | Play 2871 ↗ | 4.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:43 | Play 2913 ↗ | 4.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:28 | Play 2939 ↗ | 4.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:53 | Play 2964 ↗ | 4.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:16 | Play 2989 ↗ | 4.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:10 | Play 3012 ↗ | 4.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:32 | Play 3042 ↗ | 3.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:59 | Play 3072 ↗ | 3.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:54 | Play 3095 ↗ | 3.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:48 | Play 3118 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 01:48 | Play 3133 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 01:40 | Play 3172 ↗ | 1.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:57 | Play 3192 ↗ | 1.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:16 | Play 3214 ↗ | 1.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:00 | Play 3239 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 15:00 | Play 3259 ↗ | 2.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:56 | Play 3279 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 14:50 | Play 3318 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:46 | Play 3341 ↗ | 0.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:42 | Play 3364 ↗ | 0.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:38 | Play 3387 ↗ | 0.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:32 | Play 3423 ↗ | 0.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:46 | Play 3450 ↗ | 0.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:04 | Play 3475 ↗ | 0.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:19 | Play 3497 ↗ | 0.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:12 | Play 3516 ↗ | 0.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:49 | Play 3548 ↗ | 0.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:30 | Play 3573 ↗ | 0.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:08 | Play 3598 ↗ | 0.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:41 | Play 3628 ↗ | 0.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:16 | Play 3658 ↗ | 0.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:43 | Play 3683 ↗ | 0.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:39 | Play 3706 ↗ | 0.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:34 | Play 3732 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 09:34 | Play 3745 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 09:29 | Play 3783 ↗ | 1.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:48 | Play 3805 ↗ | 0.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:07 | Play 3830 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:21 | Play 3852 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:11 | Play 3890 ↗ | 3.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:41 | Play 3915 ↗ | 4.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:37 | Play 3938 ↗ | 3.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:10 | Play 3967 ↗ | 3.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:46 | Play 3992 ↗ | 3.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:41 | Play 4018 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 05:41 | Play 4031 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 05:35 | Play 4054 ↗ | 5.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:58 | Play 4081 ↗ | 6.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:20 | Play 4103 ↗ | 6.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:47 | Play 4145 ↗ | 8.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:34 | Play 4165 ↗ | 8.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:12 | Play 4189 ↗ | 7.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:08 | Play 4212 ↗ | 6.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:01 | Play 4253 ↗ | 4.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:54 | Play 4283 ↗ | 3.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:50 | Play 4317 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:50 | Play 4305 ↗ | 2.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:46 | Play 4346 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:46 | Play 4334 ↗ | 2.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:46 | Play 4370 ↗ | 2.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:42 | Play 4404 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:42 | Play 4392 ↗ | 2.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:00 | Play 4421 ↗ | 1.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:18 | Play 4450 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:33 | Play 4472 ↗ | 0.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:00 | Play 4494 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Baseline leakage or domain guard
0 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Baseline leakage or domain guard
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Baseline leakage or domain guard
0 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 176 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 176 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
43 of 43 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
43 of 43 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
57 of 57 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
57 of 57 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Estimated chance to win moved 0.3 percentage points across this play.
(13:48) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift to ATL 41 for 6 yards (3-J.Bates).
(13:06) PENALTY on CHI-87-S.Roush, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 41 - No Play.
(12:57) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 40 for 6 yards (0-D.Deablo).
(12:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Swift (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.
(12:07) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to ATL 42 for 8 yards (3-J.Bates).
(11:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (56-H.Perkins).
(10:53) 23-R.Johnson right end pushed ob at ATL 21 for 7 yards (21-M.Hughes; 94-L.London).
(10:17) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to ATL 11 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts; 53-K.Daniels).
(9:33) 4-D.Swift up the middle to ATL 9 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo).
(8:47) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 9 - No Play.
(8:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
8-C.Santos kicks 64 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 1. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 18 for 17 yards (57-J.Sanborn).
(8:10) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 24 for 6 yards (94-A.Booker).
(7:38) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson to ATL 19 for -5 yards (93-K.Street).
(6:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 8-K.Pitts (92-D.Hardy).
(6:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford; 34-J.Robinson). ATL-34-J.Robinson was injured during the play.
(6:34) 4-D.Swift up the middle to CHI 42 for 1 yard (0-D.Deablo; 92-M.Smith).
(5:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 37, and recovers at CHI 34.
(5:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 43 for 23 yards (21-M.Hughes).
(4:28) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at ATL 18 for 25 yards (29-S.Brown).
(3:52) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to ATL 10 for 8 yards (29-S.Brown).
(3:09) 4-D.Swift right guard to ATL 6 for 4 yards (29-S.Brown; 95-G.Dexter).
(2:26) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet pushed ob at ATL 4 for 2 yards (53-K.Daniels).
(1:52) 4-D.Swift right tackle to ATL 4 for no gain (51-J.Ivey).
(1:10) 4-D.Swift left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: ATL-34-J.Robinson has returned to the game.
8-C.Santos kicks 60 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 5. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 25 for 20 yards (47-B.Johnson; 30-Z.Scott).
(1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to ATL 30 for 5 yards (1-J.Johnson).
(:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson to ATL 27 for -3 yards (44-N.Sewell).
END QUARTER 1
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 14-O.Zaccheaus.
(14:57) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 32 for 14 yards (56-H.Perkins; 23-D.Hellams).
(14:45) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift to CHI 39 for 7 yards (12-Av.Terrell).
(14:01) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 14-K.Raymond to ATL 48 for 13 yards (29-S.Brown).
(13:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to ATL 47 for 1 yard (3-J.Bates).
(12:42) 4-D.Swift right tackle to ATL 48 for -1 yards (53-K.Daniels).
(12:08) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 4-D.Swift.
(12:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
(11:56) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 29 for 9 yards (21-C.Lewis). CHI-21-C.Lewis was injured during the play.
(11:34) 7-Bi.Robinson right guard to CHI 48 for 23 yards (22-E.Hicks).
(10:56) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 5-D.London.
(10:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to CHI 42 for 6 yards (12-D.Bush).
(10:09) (Shotgun) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to CHI 43 for -1 yards (6-K.Gordon, 12-D.Bush).
(9:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus (97-J.Lynch).
(9:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Kmet. PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 44 - No Play.
(9:16) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to ATL 20 for 21 yards (51-J.Ivey). PENALTY on CHI-58-D.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.
(8:52) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 23-R.Johnson to ATL 37 for 9 yards (96-Z.Harrison; 21-M.Hughes).
(8:12) 23-R.Johnson left end to ATL 38 for -1 yards (31-X.Watts, 99-C.Thomas).
(7:29) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right [95-G.Dexter].
(7:23) 8-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
(7:19) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to CHI 15 for 39 yards (44-N.Sewell).
(6:36) 15-Br.Robinson left guard to CHI 13 for 2 yards (44-N.Sewell).
(5:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Dotson.
(5:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 4-J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from ATL 35 to CHI 3. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 20 for 17 yards (34-J.Robinson; 19-C.Blair).
(5:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to CHI 26 for 6 yards (94-L.London).
(5:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 31 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). Penalty on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Illegal Contact, declined.
(4:27) 4-D.Swift left end pushed ob at CHI 42 for 11 yards (12-Av.Terrell). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34.
(3:55) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to CHI 23 for -1 yards (51-J.Ivey).
(3:13) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden ran ob at CHI 34 for 11 yards (12-Av.Terrell).
(2:39) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 42 for 24 yards (53-K.Daniels; 21-M.Hughes). PENALTY on CHI-75-O.Trapilo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34 - No Play.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 40 for 16 yards (33-B.Bowman).
Timeout #1 by ATL at 01:52.
(1:52) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 17-Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.
(1:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland pushed ob at ATL 2 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods; 3-J.Bates).
(1:35) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Loveland. ATL-12-Av.Terrell was injured during the play.
Timeout #2 by ATL at 01:30.
(1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
8-C.Santos kicks 61 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 4. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 27 for 23 yards (47-B.Johnson; 22-E.Hicks).
(1:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 14-O.Zaccheaus. ** Injury Update: CHI-21-C.Lewis has returned to the game.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 7-Bi.Robinson (48-D.Jackson). PENALTY on CHI-1-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 27 - No Play.
(1:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 8-K.Pitts.
(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (92-D.Hardy). FUMBLES (92-D.Hardy) [92-D.Hardy], touched at ATL 26, recovered by ATL-63-C.Lindstrom at ATL 8. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (92-D.Hardy).
Timeout #1 by CHI at 01:02. 10-second runoff avoided.
(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to ATL 35 for 13 yards (22-E.Hicks; 24-M.Muhammad).
Timeout #2 by CHI at 00:56.
(:56) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.
(:47) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet ran ob at CHI 21 for 1 yard (21-M.Hughes). ** Injury Update: ATL-12-Av.Terrell has returned to the game.
(:41) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 12 for -9 yards (95-G.Dexter).
Timeout #3 by ATL at 00:33.
(:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 26 for 14 yards (53-K.Daniels).
END QUARTER 2
8-C.Santos kicks 64 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 1. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 23 for 22 yards (44-N.Sewell; 92-D.Hardy).
(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London (24-M.Muhammad). PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at ATL 23 - No Play.
(14:49) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to CHI 43 for 6 yards (12-D.Bush).
(14:04) 7-Bi.Robinson left end pushed ob at CHI 42 for 1 yard (12-D.Bush).
(13:33) 9-M.Penix sacked at 50 for -8 yards (31-D.Thieneman).
(12:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
(12:41) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to CHI 34 for 1 yard (12-D.Bush).
(12:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at CHI 40 for -6 yards (6-K.Gordon).
(11:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to CHI 28 for 12 yards (48-D.Jackson).
(10:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (1-J.Johnson) [92-D.Hardy].
(10:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to CHI 35 for 7 yards (29-S.Brown). ** Injury Update: ATL-12-Av.Terrell has returned to the game.
(10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to CHI 37 for 2 yards (94-L.London).
(9:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 49 for 14 yards (53-K.Daniels).
(8:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 44 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). ATL-53-K.Daniels was injured during the play.
(8:15) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 15-R.Odunze (54-B.Dorlus) [54-B.Dorlus].
(8:09) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden ran ob at ATL 41 for 3 yards (31-X.Watts).
(7:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 31 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 41 - No Play.
(6:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 44 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 6 for -1 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 30-Z.Scott).
(6:45) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to ATL 7 for 1 yard (95-S.Turner; 12-D.Bush).
(6:07) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 10 for 3 yards (12-D.Bush; 44-N.Sewell). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.
(5:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 2 for -8 yards (6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon), recovered by ATL-64-R.Neuzil at ATL 3.
(4:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 1 yard, enforced at ATL 3 - No Play.
(4:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 67 yards to CHI 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 48 for 17 yards (87-N.Muse; 23-D.Hellams).
(4:28) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 10-L.Burden to ATL 30 for 22 yards (29-S.Brown).
(3:53) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-Z.Thomas to ATL 26 for 4 yards (12-Av.Terrell).
(3:16) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left.
(3:10) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 13 for 13 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
(2:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at ATL 4 for 9 yards (12-Av.Terrell; 31-X.Watts).
(1:59) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right.
(1:54) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
8-C.Santos kicks 62 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 29 for 26 yards (30-Z.Scott). FUMBLES (30-Z.Scott), touched at ATL 31, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.McCloud at ATL 31.
(1:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at ATL 40 for -9 yards (54-B.Dorlus).
(:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to ATL 39 for 1 yard (95-G.Dexter; 52-S.Ebukam).
(:16) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-Z.Thomas to ATL 32 for 7 yards (29-S.Brown; 52-S.Ebukam).
END QUARTER 3
(15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 5. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 19 for 14 yards (92-D.Hardy; 39-J.Blackwell). PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 19.
(14:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London.
(14:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus.
(14:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (31-D.Thieneman).
(14:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 39 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis) [20-C.Phillips]. Penalty on ATL-65-M.Bergeron, Offensive Holding, declined.
(14:32) 18-C.Williams sacked at 50 for -11 yards (94-L.London).
(13:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to ATL 40 for 10 yards (56-H.Perkins).
(13:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to ATL 42 for -2 yards (54-B.Dorlus).
(12:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 33 yards to ATL 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
(12:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 14 for 5 yards (57-J.Sanborn).
(11:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 5-D.London to ATL 20 for 6 yards (22-E.Hicks).
(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 24 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell).
(11:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 4-J.Dotson pushed ob at CHI 43 for 33 yards (20-C.Phillips).
(10:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at CHI 14 for 29 yards (39-J.Blackwell).
(10:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 15-Br.Robinson to CHI 10 for 4 yards (44-N.Sewell).
(9:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 5-D.London (39-J.Blackwell).
(9:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Penix pass to 17-Z.Branch is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from ATL 35 to CHI 4. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 26 for 22 yards (96-Z.Harrison).
(9:29) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CHI 28 for 2 yards (42-J.Woods).
(8:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 42 for 14 yards (21-M.Hughes).
(8:07) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to ATL 49 for 9 yards (42-J.Woods).
(7:21) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to ATL 45 for 4 yards (3-J.Bates). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), RECOVERED by ATL-56-H.Perkins at ATL 43.
(7:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 4-J.Dotson to CHI 16 for 41 yards (31-D.Thieneman).
(6:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London (24-M.Muhammad).
(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle to CHI 15 for 1 yard (94-A.Booker).
(6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to CHI 5 for 10 yards (21-C.Lewis).
(5:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Penix pass to 5-D.London is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
6-N.Folk kicks 63 yards from ATL 35 to CHI 2. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 24 for 22 yards (28-M.Ford; 19-C.Blair).
(5:35) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end ran ob at CHI 26 for 2 yards (56-H.Perkins).
(4:58) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 29 for 3 yards (42-J.Woods).
(4:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 23 for -6 yards (55-Z.Smith). The player down by contact was assisted by replay.
(3:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.
(3:34) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 32 for 4 yards (94-A.Booker).
(3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 4-J.Dotson.
(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 41 for 9 yards (12-D.Bush). PENALTY on ATL-7-Bi.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32 - No Play.
(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 14 for -8 yards (6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon) [6-K.Gordon], RECOVERED by CHI-12-D.Bush at ATL 28. 12-D.Bush to ATL 28 for no gain (65-M.Bergeron).
(2:54) 23-R.Johnson right guard to ATL 22 for 6 yards (3-J.Bates).
Timeout #1 by ATL at 02:50.
(2:50) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to ATL 24 for -2 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Timeout #2 by ATL at 02:46.
(2:46) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 24 - No Play.
(2:46) 18-C.Williams right guard to ATL 17 for 2 yards (92-M.Smith).
Timeout #3 by ATL at 02:42.
(2:42) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to ATL 13 for 4 yards (94-L.London; 3-J.Bates).
(2:00) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to ATL 12 for 1 yard (95-G.Dexter).
(1:18) 23-R.Johnson left end to ATL 4 for 8 yards.
(:33) 18-C.Williams kneels to ATL 5 for -1 yards.
END GAME
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
3.22 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
2.82 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
-2.25 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
-0.31 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.56 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
-0.56 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.56 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
-0.56 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.56 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
-0.56 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:29 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 78f5f5b0b5474eeb3c2d5e238ce7e5bd0e0482c094a9581f66d76fa40a38f848Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:32 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 f0d0cd4dc8d2b3fb9eb6a4e5eef2fdcec1c33183dcea65f57466e04283314752Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: df87a3e07f1d3f9879964da29d6034306647c8ff7f483c7dfba489678c5f65f9
Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Updated after a correction
31 metric records changed; 20 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled