The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Penalty patterns were this unusual in 15 of 779 comparison games.
How this rating was calculated
Hmm (3/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Result versus box score
Fair · 1/5
Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: CHI by 15.1; actual result: CHI by 8.
The 7.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 322 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern
Hmm · 3/5
ATL minus CHI penalty-yard difference: -102 versus -6.8 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 15 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 6.15%
Result versus spread
Fair · 1/5
Recorded spread: CHI by 1.5; actual result: CHI by 8. The difference was 6.5 points.
4,411 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive
Fair · 1/5
No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds
Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.
Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
4,411 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (60.6%).
Where this comparison comes from
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
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Notable plays 3+
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 12:48Recorded game event
Atlanta Falcons · Play 2416
(12:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on CHI awarded ATL a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review.
Estimated chance to win moved 5.7 percentage points across this play.
(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 41 for 9 yards (12-D.Bush). PENALTY on ATL-7-Bi.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.
Estimated chance to win moved 2.0 percentage points across this play.
(2:46) PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 24 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 176
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Q113:48(13:48) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift to ATL 41 for 6 yards (3-J.Bates).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 41Optional calculations for individual plays.+
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q314:54Penalty · ATL(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London (24-M.Muhammad). PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at ATL 23 - No Play.+
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.9 accepted penalties for 94.9 yards across both teams.
Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee
CHI
ATL
Games
6
4
Wins–losses–ties
2–4–0
3–1–0
Team penalties per game
6.2 / 62.2 yd
6 / 49.8 yd
Referee comparison details
Home teams: 6.1 / 49.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.8 / 45.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Scott Novak; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline.
The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away.
Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome.
Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting.
Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled.
These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Chicago BearsHistorical context
Winning-profile context
CHI won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards
336 / 774prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches 14,512 team-games checked · 1999–2025 seasons
Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
About this chart
146 model estimates across 176 recorded game entries.
30 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (176 entries)
Atlanta Falcons chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
CHIExtra point points above expectation0.12 points
Supported
HISTORICAL COMPARISON37th percentile
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Q112:15(12:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Swift (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.Play 189
(12:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Swift (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.
Q111:24(11:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (56-H.Perkins).Play 249
(11:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q106:48(6:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford; 34-J.Robinson). ATL-34-J.Robinson was injured during the play.Play 525
(6:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford; 34-J.Robinson). ATL-34-J.Robinson was injured during the play.
Q209:25(9:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Kmet. PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 44 - No Play.Play 1243
(9:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Kmet. PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 44 - No Play.
Q209:16(9:16) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to ATL 20 for 21 yards (51-J.Ivey). PENALTY on CHI-58-D.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.Play 1284
(9:16) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to ATL 20 for 21 yards (51-J.Ivey). PENALTY on CHI-58-D.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.
Q205:00(5:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 31 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). Penalty on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Illegal Contact, declined.Play 1581
(5:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 31 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). Penalty on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q204:27(4:27) 4-D.Swift left end pushed ob at CHI 42 for 11 yards (12-Av.Terrell). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34.Play 1623
(4:27) 4-D.Swift left end pushed ob at CHI 42 for 11 yards (12-Av.Terrell). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34.
Q202:39(2:39) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 42 for 24 yards (53-K.Daniels; 21-M.Hughes). PENALTY on CHI-75-O.Trapilo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34 - No Play.Play 1713
(2:39) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 42 for 24 yards (53-K.Daniels; 21-M.Hughes). PENALTY on CHI-75-O.Trapilo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34 - No Play.
Q201:14(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 7-Bi.Robinson (48-D.Jackson). PENALTY on CHI-1-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 27 - No Play.Play 1977
(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 7-Bi.Robinson (48-D.Jackson). PENALTY on CHI-1-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 27 - No Play.
Q201:05(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (92-D.Hardy). FUMBLES (92-D.Hardy) [92-D.Hardy], touched at ATL 26, recovered by ATL-63-C.Lindstrom at ATL 8. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (92-D.Hardy).Play 2037
(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (92-D.Hardy). FUMBLES (92-D.Hardy) [92-D.Hardy], touched at ATL 26, recovered by ATL-63-C.Lindstrom at ATL 8. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (92-D.Hardy).
Q200:56(:56) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.Play 2146
(:56) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.
Q200:47(:47) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet ran ob at CHI 21 for 1 yard (21-M.Hughes). ** Injury Update: ATL-12-Av.Terrell has returned to the game.Play 2183
(:47) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet ran ob at CHI 21 for 1 yard (21-M.Hughes). ** Injury Update: ATL-12-Av.Terrell has returned to the game.
Q314:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London (24-M.Muhammad). PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at ATL 23 - No Play.Play 2310
(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London (24-M.Muhammad). PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at ATL 23 - No Play.
Q312:48(12:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.Play 2416
(12:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q310:32(10:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to CHI 35 for 7 yards (29-S.Brown). ** Injury Update: ATL-12-Av.Terrell has returned to the game.Play 2542
(10:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to CHI 35 for 7 yards (29-S.Brown). ** Injury Update: ATL-12-Av.Terrell has returned to the game.
Q308:48(8:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 44 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). ATL-53-K.Daniels was injured during the play.Play 2624
(8:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 44 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). ATL-53-K.Daniels was injured during the play.
Q307:31(7:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 31 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 41 - No Play.Play 2717
(7:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 31 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 41 - No Play.
Q306:07(6:07) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 10 for 3 yards (12-D.Bush; 44-N.Sewell). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.Play 2803
(6:07) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 10 for 3 yards (12-D.Bush; 44-N.Sewell). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q304:53(4:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 1 yard, enforced at ATL 3 - No Play.Play 2871
(4:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 1 yard, enforced at ATL 3 - No Play.
Q301:488-C.Santos kicks 62 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 29 for 26 yards (30-Z.Scott). FUMBLES (30-Z.Scott), touched at ATL 31, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.McCloud at ATL 31.Play 3133
8-C.Santos kicks 62 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 29 for 26 yards (30-Z.Scott). FUMBLES (30-Z.Scott), touched at ATL 31, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.McCloud at ATL 31.
Q414:568-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 5. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 19 for 14 yards (92-D.Hardy; 39-J.Blackwell). PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 19.Play 3279
8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 5. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 19 for 14 yards (92-D.Hardy; 39-J.Blackwell). PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 19.
Q414:38(14:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 39 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis) [20-C.Phillips]. Penalty on ATL-65-M.Bergeron, Offensive Holding, declined.Play 3387
(14:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 39 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis) [20-C.Phillips]. Penalty on ATL-65-M.Bergeron, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q403:08(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 41 for 9 yards (12-D.Bush). PENALTY on ATL-7-Bi.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32 - No Play.Play 4212
(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 41 for 9 yards (12-D.Bush). PENALTY on ATL-7-Bi.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32 - No Play.
Q403:01(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 14 for -8 yards (6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon) [6-K.Gordon], RECOVERED by CHI-12-D.Bush at ATL 28. 12-D.Bush to ATL 28 for no gain (65-M.Bergeron).Play 4253
(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 14 for -8 yards (6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon) [6-K.Gordon], RECOVERED by CHI-12-D.Bush at ATL 28. 12-D.Bush to ATL 28 for no gain (65-M.Bergeron).
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence ATL
0.53 pointsSupported
Actual state
Qtr
1
Down
2
Roof
closed
Season
2026
Posteam
CHI
Ydstogo
13
Away team
CHI
Home team
ATL
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
14
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
3227
Half seconds remaining
1427
Quarter seconds remaining
527
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Supported alternative
Qtr
1
Down
2
Roof
closed
Season
2026
Posteam
CHI
Ydstogo
8
Away team
CHI
Home team
ATL
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
9
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
3227
Half seconds remaining
1427
Quarter seconds remaining
527
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Assumptions
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Q209:25Penalty · CHI(9:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Kmet. PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 44 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q106:48Fourth down · ATL(6:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford; 34-J.Robinson). ATL-34-J.Robinson was injured during the play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:57Fourth down · ATL(14:57) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 32 for 14 yards (56-H.Perkins; 23-D.Hellams).+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Q414:38Fourth down · ATL(14:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 39 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis) [20-C.Phillips]. Penalty on ATL-65-M.Bergeron, Offensive Holding, declined.+
Q112:15Penalty · CHI(12:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Swift (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q209:16Penalty · CHI(9:16) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to ATL 20 for 21 yards (51-J.Ivey). PENALTY on CHI-58-D.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:00Fourth down · CHI(5:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 31 for 5 yards (53-K.Daniels). Penalty on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Illegal Contact, declined.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:27Penalty · CHI(4:27) 4-D.Swift left end pushed ob at CHI 42 for 11 yards (12-Av.Terrell). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:39Penalty · CHI(2:39) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 42 for 24 yards (53-K.Daniels; 21-M.Hughes). PENALTY on CHI-75-O.Trapilo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 34 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:56Penalty · ATL(:56) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:48Penalty · ATL(12:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:31Penalty · CHI(7:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland to ATL 31 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Loveland, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 41 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:07Fourth down · ATL(6:07) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 10 for 3 yards (12-D.Bush; 44-N.Sewell). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q304:53Penalty · ATL(4:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 1 yard, enforced at ATL 3 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:43Fourth down · ATL(4:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 67 yards to CHI 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 48 for 17 yards (87-N.Muse; 23-D.Hellams).+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q301:48Fumble · ATL8-C.Santos kicks 62 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 29 for 26 yards (30-Z.Scott). FUMBLES (30-Z.Scott), touched at ATL 31, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.McCloud at ATL 31.+
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q414:56Penalty · ATL8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to ATL 2. 15-Br.Robinson MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 5. 15-Br.Robinson to ATL 19 for 14 yards (92-D.Hardy; 39-J.Blackwell). PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 19.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q403:08Penalty · ATL(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch ran ob at ATL 41 for 9 yards (12-D.Bush). PENALTY on ATL-7-Bi.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:01Fumble · ATL(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 14 for -8 yards (6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon) [6-K.Gordon], RECOVERED by CHI-12-D.Bush at ATL 28. 12-D.Bush to ATL 28 for no gain (65-M.Bergeron).+
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.