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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Kansas City Chiefs by 7.5
Final margin Kansas City Chiefs by 16
Difference 8.5 points
Kansas City Chiefs covered the spread.
3,644 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (50.1%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin KC by 16
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Alan Eck Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 48 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 10.9 accepted penalties for 92.1 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Los Angeles Chargers · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Kansas City Chiefs chance to win during the game 145 preplay estimates across 166 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 21 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 07:16 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 1650 (7:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Wease (38-L.Sneed). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease pushed ob at LAC 32 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 4.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:28 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 4423 (1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.
Defensive penalty on KC awarded LAC a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.2 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 166 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 166 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 11-C.Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to KC 5. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 28 yards (50-C.Murphy). Play 39 11-C.Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to KC 5. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 28 yards (50-C.Murphy).
Q114:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 34 for 33 yards (43-T.Dye) [52-K.Mack]. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 48. Play 74 (14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 34 for 33 yards (43-T.Dye) [52-K.Mack]. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 48.
Q114:19 (14:19) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 47 for 15 yards (20-C.Hart). Play 110 (14:19) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 47 for 15 yards (20-C.Hart).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 39 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q100:50 Penalty · KC (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 13-C.Allen (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC 6.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2745
Half seconds remaining 945
Quarter seconds remaining 45
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot Team penalties per game 4.6 / 37.4 yd 4 / 27.7 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.2 / 42.1 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 50 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Alan Eck; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 145 model estimates across 166 recorded game entries.
21 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (166 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence 6.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Ruling expected points consequence 2.46 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence -2 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Ruling expected points consequence -0.72 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence 1.47 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Ruling expected points consequence 0.54 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Ruling expected points consequence 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence -0.14 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Ruling expected points consequence -1.14 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
KC Fourth down decision cost 3.96 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75545/0.71582/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20980/ NA/0.23212 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0.95 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14878/0.13929/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82645/0.79938/0.82737 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 1.73 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17689/ NA/0.15961 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0.32 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04174/ NA/0.03857 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0.09 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03368/0.03282/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97778/0.96917/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02611/ NA/0.02655 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0.15 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96092/ NA/0.95942 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03163/0.03079/0.02360 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0.23 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98197/0.97972/0.97978 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99029/0.99705/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00181/0.00046/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
KC Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.6 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
LAC Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.6 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
KC Field goal points above expectation -1.02 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LAC Field goal points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
KC Extra point points above expectation -0.92 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
LAC Extra point points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
KC Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 166 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
LAC Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 166 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
KC Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.04 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
KC Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.97 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
KC Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.54 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
KC Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.39 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.66 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
70 of 70 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 70 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.81 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
70 of 70 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 70 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.61 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q113:45 (13:45) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 34 for 13 yards (0-D.Henley). Play 135 (13:45) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 34 for 13 yards (0-D.Henley).
Q113:09 (13:09) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left end to LAC 32 for 2 yards (27-R.Mickens). Play 157 (13:09) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left end to LAC 32 for 2 yards (27-R.Mickens).
Q112:37 (12:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-65-Tr.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32 - No Play. Play 179 (12:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-65-Tr.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32 - No Play.
Q112:14 (12:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Walker. Play 215 (12:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Walker.
Q112:10 (12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray to LAC 26 for 16 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 2-E.Molden). Play 238 (12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray to LAC 26 for 16 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 2-E.Molden).
Q111:25 (11:25) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 263 (11:25) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q111:20 7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to LAC 7. 34-K.Mitchell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 29 for 17 yards (85-A.Armstrong). Play 283 7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to LAC 7. 34-K.Mitchell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 29 for 17 yards (85-A.Armstrong).
Q111:12 (11:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 28 for -1 yards (20-N.Williams). KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play. Play 319 (11:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 28 for -1 yards (20-N.Williams). KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.
Q110:48 (10:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 34-K.Mitchell (56-G.Karlaftis). Play 344 (10:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 34-K.Mitchell (56-G.Karlaftis).
Q110:44 (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 28-K.Vidal. Play 367 (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 28-K.Vidal.
Q110:40 (10:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 6 yards (53-D.Phillips; 47-J.Harris). Play 390 (10:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 6 yards (53-D.Phillips; 47-J.Harris).
Q110:28 (10:28) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 37 for 4 yards (53-D.Phillips). Play 416 (10:28) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 37 for 4 yards (53-D.Phillips).
Q109:55 (9:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at KC 41 for 4 yards (20-C.Hart). Play 438 (9:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at KC 41 for 4 yards (20-C.Hart).
Q109:21 (9:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy ran ob at LAC 42 for 17 yards (4-T.Still). Play 468 (9:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy ran ob at LAC 42 for 17 yards (4-T.Still).
Q108:46 (8:46) 9-K.Walker right end to LAC 39 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley; 91-N.Barrett). Play 498 (8:46) 9-K.Walker right end to LAC 39 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley; 91-N.Barrett).
Q108:10 (8:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 11-J.Royals to LAC 33 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 4-T.Still). Play 528 (8:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 11-J.Royals to LAC 33 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 4-T.Still).
Q107:29 Timeout #1 by KC at 07:29. Play 565 Timeout #1 by KC at 07:29.
Q107:29 (7:29) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 553 (7:29) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q107:21 7-H.Butker extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 583 7-H.Butker extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q107:21 7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35. Play 598 7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35.
Q107:21 (7:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to KC 48 for 17 yards (32-N.Bolton; 20-N.Williams). ** Injury Update: KC-20-N.Williams has returned to the game. Play 624 (7:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to KC 48 for 17 yards (32-N.Bolton; 20-N.Williams). ** Injury Update: KC-20-N.Williams has returned to the game.
Q106:45 (6:45) 28-K.Vidal left guard to KC 45 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Play 649 (6:45) 28-K.Vidal left guard to KC 45 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
Q106:07 (6:07) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to KC 39 for 6 yards (99-P.Woods). Play 679 (6:07) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to KC 39 for 6 yards (99-P.Woods).
Q105:30 (5:30) 12-D.Davis left end to KC 35 for 4 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). Play 701 (5:30) 12-D.Davis left end to KC 35 for 4 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
Q104:54 (4:54) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to KC 34 for 1 yard (56-G.Karlaftis; 43-J.Cochrane). Play 723 (4:54) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to KC 34 for 1 yard (56-G.Karlaftis; 43-J.Cochrane).
Q104:14 (4:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to KC 28 for 6 yards (31-J.Bassa; 56-G.Karlaftis). Play 745 (4:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to KC 28 for 6 yards (31-J.Bassa; 56-G.Karlaftis).
Q103:27 (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right tackle to KC 22 for 6 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at KC 22. Play 767 (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right tackle to KC 22 for 6 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at KC 22.
Q103:08 (3:08) 28-K.Vidal right tackle to KC 10 for 1 yard (20-N.Williams). Play 806 (3:08) 28-K.Vidal right tackle to KC 10 for 1 yard (20-N.Williams).
Q102:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 86-O.Gadsden (20-N.Williams). Play 828 (2:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 86-O.Gadsden (20-N.Williams).
Q102:20 (2:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to KC 5 for 5 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace). Play 851 (2:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to KC 5 for 5 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).
Q101:38 (1:38) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 876 (1:38) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q101:33 11-C.Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to KC 5. 10-E.Johnson to KC 25 for 20 yards (50-C.Murphy; 33-D.Leonard). Play 896 11-C.Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to KC 5. 10-E.Johnson to KC 25 for 20 yards (50-C.Murphy; 33-D.Leonard).
Q101:27 (1:27) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-E.Johnson to KC 29 for 4 yards (43-T.Dye). Play 926 (1:27) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-E.Johnson to KC 29 for 4 yards (43-T.Dye).
Q100:50 (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 13-C.Allen (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play. Play 955 (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 13-C.Allen (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.
Q100:45 (:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle. Play 990 (:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle.
Q100:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 10-E.Johnson up the middle to LAC 47 for 4 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 1013 (:39) (Shotgun) 10-E.Johnson up the middle to LAC 47 for 4 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1035 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-C.Allen pushed ob at LAC 43 for 4 yards (4-T.Still). Play 1055 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-C.Allen pushed ob at LAC 43 for 4 yards (4-T.Still).
Q214:21 (14:21) (Punt formation) PENALTY on KC, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play. Play 1102 (14:21) (Punt formation) PENALTY on KC, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play.
Q214:18 (14:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Play 1130 (14:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
Q214:08 (14:08) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 24 for 4 yards (97-A.Gillotte; 99-P.Woods). Play 1188 (14:08) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 24 for 4 yards (97-A.Gillotte; 99-P.Woods).
Q213:40 (13:40) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace (95-C.Jones) at LAC 39. 30-C.Roland-Wallace to LAC 32 for 7 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on KC-97-A.Gillotte, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 24 - No Play. Play 1215 (13:40) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace (95-C.Jones) at LAC 39. 30-C.Roland-Wallace to LAC 32 for 7 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on KC-97-A.Gillotte, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 24 - No Play.
Q213:28 (13:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Kolar. Play 1260 (13:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Kolar.
Q213:23 (13:23) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 42 for 3 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah; 32-N.Bolton). Play 1283 (13:23) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 42 for 3 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah; 32-N.Bolton).
Q212:45 (12:45) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 42 - No Play. Play 1310 (12:45) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 42 - No Play.
Q212:19 (12:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. Penalty on KC-8-K.Fulton, Illegal Contact, offsetting. Play 1343 (12:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. Penalty on KC-8-K.Fulton, Illegal Contact, offsetting.
Q212:11 (12:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-K.Vidal to KC 49 for 13 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah; 21-J.Hicks). Play 1377 (12:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-K.Vidal to KC 49 for 13 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah; 21-J.Hicks).
Q211:31 (11:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert left end pushed ob at KC 42 for 7 yards (27-C.Conner). Play 1402 (11:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert left end pushed ob at KC 42 for 7 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q210:59 (10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 1430 (10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q210:43 (10:43) 9-K.Walker left tackle to LAC 10 for 7 yards (93-T.Tart; 2-E.Molden). Play 1468 (10:43) 9-K.Walker left tackle to LAC 10 for 7 yards (93-T.Tart; 2-E.Molden).
Q210:08 (10:08) 9-K.Walker left tackle to LAC 4 for 6 yards (20-C.Hart). Play 1490 (10:08) 9-K.Walker left tackle to LAC 4 for 6 yards (20-C.Hart).
Q209:26 (9:26) (Shotgun) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Royals. Play 1512 (9:26) (Shotgun) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Royals.
Q209:21 (9:21) 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 2 for 2 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 1537 (9:21) 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 2 for 2 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q208:37 Timeout #2 by KC at 08:37. Play 1571 Timeout #2 by KC at 08:37.
Q208:37 (8:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 85-A.Armstrong INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Hart [93-T.Tart] at LAC -9. Touchback. Play 1559 (8:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 85-A.Armstrong INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Hart [93-T.Tart] at LAC -9. Touchback.
Q208:30 (8:30) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 24 for 4 yards (99-P.Woods; 5-M.Delane). Play 1594 (8:30) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 24 for 4 yards (99-P.Woods; 5-M.Delane).
Q207:53 (7:53) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 25 for 1 yard (32-N.Bolton; 92-K.Tonga). Play 1628 (7:53) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 25 for 1 yard (32-N.Bolton; 92-K.Tonga).
Q207:16 (7:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Wease (38-L.Sneed). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease pushed ob at LAC 32 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed). Play 1650 (7:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Wease (38-L.Sneed). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease pushed ob at LAC 32 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q207:05 (7:05) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 33 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill). Play 1690 (7:05) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 33 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill).
Q206:29 (6:29) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar. Play 1759 (6:29) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar.
Q206:21 (6:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 40 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton). Play 1794 (6:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 40 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q205:39 (5:39) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. Play 1816 (5:39) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
Q205:29 (5:29) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 23 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley; 53-D.Phillips). Play 1834 (5:29) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 23 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley; 53-D.Phillips).
Q204:56 (4:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes left end to KC 33 for 10 yards (27-R.Mickens). Play 1863 (4:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes left end to KC 33 for 10 yards (27-R.Mickens).
Q204:19 (4:19) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 28. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 49 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley). Play 1885 (4:19) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 28. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 49 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley).
Q203:43 (3:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray to LAC 45 for 6 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 1943 (3:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray to LAC 45 for 6 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q203:02 (3:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 21 for 24 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 1968 (3:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 21 for 24 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q202:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 85-A.Armstrong to LAC 8 for 13 yards (33-D.Leonard). Play 1993 (2:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 85-A.Armstrong to LAC 8 for 13 yards (33-D.Leonard).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 9-K.Walker to LAC 2 for 6 yards (2-E.Molden; 45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 2018 (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 9-K.Walker to LAC 2 for 6 yards (2-E.Molden; 45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q201:53 Timeout #1 by LAC at 01:53. Play 2062 Timeout #1 by LAC at 01:53.
Q201:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2050 (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q201:49 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 2080 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q201:49 7-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LAC 8. 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 31 for 23 yards (31-J.Bassa). PENALTY on LAC-82-T.Wease, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26. Play 2095 7-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LAC 8. 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 31 for 23 yards (31-J.Bassa). PENALTY on LAC-82-T.Wease, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26.
Q201:44 (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle to LAC 20 for 4 yards (51-R.Thomas; 38-L.Sneed). Play 2141 (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle to LAC 20 for 4 yards (51-R.Thomas; 38-L.Sneed).
Q201:13 (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 24 for 4 yards (95-C.Jones). Play 2163 (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 24 for 4 yards (95-C.Jones).
Q200:44 (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith [56-G.Karlaftis]. Play 2188 (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q200:36 (:36) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 30 for 7 yards (32-K.Williamson; 43-T.Dye). Play 2211 (:36) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 30 for 7 yards (32-K.Williamson; 43-T.Dye).
Q200:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-E.Johnson to KC 44 for 14 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 2242 (:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-E.Johnson to KC 44 for 14 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q200:19 Timeout #3 by KC at 00:19. Play 2286 Timeout #3 by KC at 00:19.
Q200:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-22-G.Smith, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play. Play 2274 (:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-22-G.Smith, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play.
Q200:14 (:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-X.Worthy ran ob at LAC 32 for 19 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 2315 (:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-X.Worthy ran ob at LAC 32 for 19 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q200:07 (:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 2345 (:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q200:02 7-H.Butker kicks 60 yards from KC 35 to LAC 5. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 32 for 27 yards (31-J.Bassa). Play 2365 7-H.Butker kicks 60 yards from KC 35 to LAC 5. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 32 for 27 yards (31-J.Bassa).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2393 Q315:00 7-H.Butker kicks 62 yards from KC 35 to LAC 3. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 28 for 25 yards (29-X.Nwankpa). Play 2413 7-H.Butker kicks 62 yards from KC 35 to LAC 3. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 28 for 25 yards (29-X.Nwankpa).
Q314:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal right end to LAC 29 for 1 yard (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah). Play 2436 (14:55) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal right end to LAC 29 for 1 yard (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah).
Q314:21 (14:21) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to LAC 44 for 15 yards (32-N.Bolton; 17-A.Gilman). Play 2458 (14:21) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to LAC 44 for 15 yards (32-N.Bolton; 17-A.Gilman).
Q313:46 (13:46) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton right tackle to LAC 45 for 1 yard (92-K.Tonga; 32-N.Bolton). Play 2483 (13:46) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton right tackle to LAC 45 for 1 yard (92-K.Tonga; 32-N.Bolton).
Q313:08 (13:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to LAC 42 for -3 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace). Play 2507 (13:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to LAC 42 for -3 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).
Q312:26 (12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to KC 1 for 57 yards (5-M.Delane). Play 2532 (12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to KC 1 for 57 yards (5-M.Delane).
Q311:45 (11:45) 8-O.Hampton left guard to KC 2 for -1 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 1 - No Play. Play 2557 (11:45) 8-O.Hampton left guard to KC 2 for -1 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 1 - No Play.
Q311:31 (11:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-K.Vidal to KC 12 for -1 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). Play 2590 (11:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-K.Vidal to KC 12 for -1 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
Q310:55 (10:55) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 86-O.Gadsden. Play 2615 (10:55) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 86-O.Gadsden.
Q310:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (20-N.Williams). Play 2638 (10:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (20-N.Williams).
Q310:48 (10:48) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 2661 (10:48) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q310:44 11-C.Dicker kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to KC 7. 10-E.Johnson pushed ob at KC 37 for 30 yards (50-C.Murphy). Play 2681 11-C.Dicker kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to KC 7. 10-E.Johnson pushed ob at KC 37 for 30 yards (50-C.Murphy).
Q310:39 (10:39) 9-K.Walker left end pushed ob at KC 48 for 11 yards (4-T.Still). Play 2721 (10:39) 9-K.Walker left end pushed ob at KC 48 for 11 yards (4-T.Still).
Q310:09 (10:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray to LAC 21 for 31 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 2748 (10:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray to LAC 21 for 31 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q309:17 (9:17) 9-K.Walker left end to LAC 8 for 13 yards (2-E.Molden; 22-G.Smith). Play 2773 (9:17) 9-K.Walker left end to LAC 8 for 13 yards (2-E.Molden; 22-G.Smith).
Q308:39 (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 6 for 2 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 2795 (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 6 for 2 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q308:02 (8:02) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 7 for -1 yards (91-N.Barrett). Play 2817 (8:02) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 7 for -1 yards (91-N.Barrett).
Q307:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle to LAC 1 for 6 yards (52-K.Mack; 4-T.Still). Play 2839 (7:15) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle to LAC 1 for 6 yards (52-K.Mack; 4-T.Still).
Q306:34 (6:34) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 1 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe; 58-M.Wax). Play 2861 (6:34) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 1 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe; 58-M.Wax).
Q306:29 (6:29) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah). Play 2887 (6:29) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah).
Q305:43 (5:43) PENALTY on LAC, Delay of Game, 0 yards, enforced at LAC 1 - No Play. Play 2918 (5:43) PENALTY on LAC, Delay of Game, 0 yards, enforced at LAC 1 - No Play.
Q305:40 (5:40) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 99-P.Woods and 95-C.Jones). Penalty on LAC, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 2942 (5:40) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 99-P.Woods and 95-C.Jones). Penalty on LAC, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q305:19 (5:19) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 2 for 1 yard (32-N.Bolton; 23-D.Tranquill). Play 3011 (5:19) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 2 for 1 yard (32-N.Bolton; 23-D.Tranquill).
Q304:34 (4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. Play 3033 (4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Q304:24 (4:24) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Play 3146 (4:24) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
Q303:45 (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 38 for -6 yards (97-A.Gillotte). Play 3172 (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 38 for -6 yards (97-A.Gillotte).
Q303:04 (3:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 39 for 1 yard (30-C.Roland-Wallace). Play 3192 (3:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 39 for 1 yard (30-C.Roland-Wallace).
Q302:26 (2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. Play 3217 (2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
Q302:17 (2:17) 10-E.Johnson up the middle to KC 19 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 3237 (2:17) 10-E.Johnson up the middle to KC 19 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q301:41 (1:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy ran ob at KC 24 for 5 yards. Play 3266 (1:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy ran ob at KC 24 for 5 yards.
Q301:13 (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 25 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu; 93-T.Tart). Play 3291 (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 25 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu; 93-T.Tart).
Q300:35 (:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 21 yards (83-N.Gray; 41-J.Winchester). Play 3313 (:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 21 yards (83-N.Gray; 41-J.Winchester).
Q300:21 (:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 8-O.Hampton to KC 47 for 15 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace; 32-N.Bolton). Play 3339 (:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 8-O.Hampton to KC 47 for 15 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace; 32-N.Bolton).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3381 Q415:00 (15:00) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to KC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 56-G.Karlaftis). Penalty on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Play 3401 (15:00) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to KC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 56-G.Karlaftis). Penalty on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
Q414:42 (14:42) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith pushed ob at KC 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on LAC-84-K.Lambert-Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play. Play 3434 (14:42) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith pushed ob at KC 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on LAC-84-K.Lambert-Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play.
Q414:22 (14:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to KC 43 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton). Kansas City challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 3492 (14:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to KC 43 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton). Kansas City challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q413:56 (13:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (38-L.Sneed). Play 3527 (13:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (38-L.Sneed).
Q413:52 (13:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 38 for 5 yards (20-N.Williams). Play 3602 (13:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 38 for 5 yards (20-N.Williams).
Q413:46 (13:46) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-J.Royals to LAC 44 for 18 yards (4-T.Still). Play 3627 (13:46) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-J.Royals to LAC 44 for 18 yards (4-T.Still).
Q413:13 (13:13) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right end to LAC 43 for 1 yard (37-I.Waxter). Play 3664 (13:13) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right end to LAC 43 for 1 yard (37-I.Waxter).
Q412:34 (12:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at LAC 35 for 8 yards (37-I.Waxter). Play 3686 (12:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at LAC 35 for 8 yards (37-I.Waxter).
Q411:56 (11:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Royals. Play 3713 (11:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Royals.
Q411:51 (11:51) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 3736 (11:51) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q411:46 (11:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-Q.Johnston. Play 3757 (11:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-Q.Johnston.
Q411:43 (11:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to KC 46 for 11 yards (27-C.Conner). Play 3787 (11:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to KC 46 for 11 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q411:09 (11:09) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to KC 37 for 9 yards (17-A.Gilman). Play 3812 (11:09) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to KC 37 for 9 yards (17-A.Gilman).
Q410:31 (10:31) 28-K.Vidal left guard to KC 37 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). Play 3834 (10:31) 28-K.Vidal left guard to KC 37 for no gain (32-N.Bolton).
Q409:50 (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 36 for 1 yard (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at KC 38. Play 3856 (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 36 for 1 yard (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at KC 38.
Q409:43 (9:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 44 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson). KC-76-K.Suamataia was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-76-K.Suamataia, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 38 - No Play. Play 3901 (9:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 44 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson). KC-76-K.Suamataia was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-76-K.Suamataia, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 38 - No Play.
Q409:33 (9:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 13-C.Allen to LAC 49 for 23 yards (22-G.Smith). Play 3940 (9:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 13-C.Allen to LAC 49 for 23 yards (22-G.Smith).
Q408:51 (8:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at KC 49 for -2 yards (4-T.Still). Play 3972 (8:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at KC 49 for -2 yards (4-T.Still).
Q408:18 (8:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to 50 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson). Play 4006 (8:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to 50 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson).
Q407:34 (7:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce ran ob at LAC 38 for 12 yards. Play 4031 (7:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce ran ob at LAC 38 for 12 yards.
Q406:56 (6:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to LAC 33 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 4061 (6:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to LAC 33 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q406:14 (6:14) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle to LAC 28 for 5 yards (22-G.Smith; 4-T.Still). Play 4086 (6:14) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle to LAC 28 for 5 yards (22-G.Smith; 4-T.Still).
Q405:29 (5:29) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 12 for 16 yards (20-C.Hart). ** Injury Update: KC-76-K.Suamataia has returned to the game. Play 4108 (5:29) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LAC 12 for 16 yards (20-C.Hart). ** Injury Update: KC-76-K.Suamataia has returned to the game.
Q404:43 (4:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 10-E.Johnson [90-A.Mesidor]. Play 4130 (4:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 10-E.Johnson [90-A.Mesidor].
Q404:38 (4:38) 10-E.Johnson left guard to LAC 12 for no gain (93-T.Tart; 90-A.Mesidor). Play 4156 (4:38) 10-E.Johnson left guard to LAC 12 for no gain (93-T.Tart; 90-A.Mesidor).
Q404:01 (4:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Kelce. Play 4178 (4:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Kelce.
Q403:56 (3:56) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 4201 (3:56) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q403:52 7-H.Butker kicks 64 yards from KC 35 to LAC 1. 12-D.Davis to LAC 30 for 29 yards (29-X.Nwankpa; 31-J.Bassa). Play 4221 7-H.Butker kicks 64 yards from KC 35 to LAC 1. 12-D.Davis to LAC 30 for 29 yards (29-X.Nwankpa; 31-J.Bassa).
Q403:45 (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 8-K.Fulton). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play. Play 4244 (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 8-K.Fulton). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.
Q403:38 (3:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 39 for 16 yards (21-J.Hicks). Play 4278 (3:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 39 for 16 yards (21-J.Hicks).
Q403:15 (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to KC 35 for 4 yards (27-C.Conner). Play 4303 (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to KC 35 for 4 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q402:54 (2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 28-K.Vidal to KC 28 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton; 23-D.Tranquill) [91-F.Anudike-Uzomah]. Play 4328 (2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 28-K.Vidal to KC 28 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton; 23-D.Tranquill) [91-F.Anudike-Uzomah].
Q402:24 (2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at KC 36 for -8 yards (27-C.Conner). Play 4353 (2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at KC 36 for -8 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at KC 40 for -4 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). Play 4373 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at KC 40 for -4 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
Q401:33 (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 1-Q.Johnston. Play 4400 (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 1-Q.Johnston.
Q401:28 (1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26. Play 4423 (1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.
Q401:20 (1:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right [56-G.Karlaftis]. Play 4459 (1:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q401:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to KC 8 for 5 yards (38-L.Sneed). Play 4482 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to KC 8 for 5 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q401:03 Timeout #1 by LAC at 01:03. Play 4519 Timeout #1 by LAC at 01:03.
Q401:03 (1:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Kolar (56-G.Karlaftis). Play 4507 (1:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Kolar (56-G.Karlaftis).
Q401:00 (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Wease (51-R.Thomas). Play 4537 (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Wease (51-R.Thomas).
Q400:56 (:56) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 6 for -2 yards. Play 4560 (:56) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 6 for -2 yards.
Q400:24 (:24) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 5 for -1 yards. Play 4582 (:24) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 5 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 2745
Half seconds remaining 945
Quarter seconds remaining 45
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence KC 2.46 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2745
Half seconds remaining 945
Quarter seconds remaining 45
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 6
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2745
Half seconds remaining 945
Quarter seconds remaining 45
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:25 Kick · KC (11:25) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Fourth down decision cost KC 3.96 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 5.906267833319546
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.05972222222222223
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3385
Half seconds remaining 1585
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 685
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7554538838085609 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75545/0.71582/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation KC -1.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q214:21 Penalty · KC (14:21) (Punt formation) PENALTY on KC, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC -2 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 7
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2661
Half seconds remaining 861
Quarter seconds remaining 861
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 2
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2661
Half seconds remaining 861
Quarter seconds remaining 861
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence KC -0.72 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 7
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2661
Half seconds remaining 861
Quarter seconds remaining 861
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 2
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2661
Half seconds remaining 861
Quarter seconds remaining 861
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:39 Fourth down · LAC (5:39) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 1.73 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.479301012274801
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.4058333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2139
Half seconds remaining 339
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 339
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1768860833378339 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17689/ NA/0.15961 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:45 Penalty · LAC (12:45) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC 1.47 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 11
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2565
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 7
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2565
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence KC 0.54 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 11
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2565
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 7
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2565
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q101:38 Kick · LAC (1:38) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0.95 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 3.076497914849749
Yardline 100 5
Elapsed share 0.2227777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -9
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2798
Half seconds remaining 998
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 98
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1487796679707198 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14878/0.13929/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LAC 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:36 Fourth down · LAC (:36) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 30 for 7 yards (32-K.Williamson; 43-T.Dye). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0.32 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.056438156907838
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.49
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1836
Half seconds remaining 36
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 36
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.04174177447018163 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04174/ NA/0.03857 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:51 Kick · KC (11:51) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Fourth down decision cost KC 0.23 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.3026745995402336
Yardline 100 35
Elapsed share 0.8025
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 711
Half seconds remaining 711
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 711
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.981973196549158 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98197/0.97972/0.97978 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation KC -1.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q300:35 Fourth down · KC (:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 21 yards (83-N.Gray; 41-J.Winchester). + Fourth down decision cost KC 0.15 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.3882102942992372
Yardline 100 75
Elapsed share 0.7402777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 935
Half seconds remaining 935
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 35
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9609168579294483 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96092/ NA/0.95942 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:45 Penalty · LAC (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 8-K.Fulton). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC -0.14 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 218
Half seconds remaining 218
Quarter seconds remaining 218
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 218
Half seconds remaining 218
Quarter seconds remaining 218
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence KC -1.14 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 218
Half seconds remaining 218
Quarter seconds remaining 218
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 218
Half seconds remaining 218
Quarter seconds remaining 218
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q110:40 Fourth down · LAC (10:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 6 yards (53-D.Phillips; 47-J.Harris). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 5.618215752035631
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.07222222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3340
Half seconds remaining 1540
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 640
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2321207812609709 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20980/ NA/0.23212 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:18 Fourth down · KC (14:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 2.633296159015322
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.2616666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2658
Half seconds remaining 858
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8273704399823542 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82645/0.79938/0.82737 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 27 recorded events Q306:34 Fourth down · KC (6:34) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 1 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe; 58-M.Wax). + Fourth down decision cost KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.5784985714934611
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.6405555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1294
Half seconds remaining 1294
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 394
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9777839136041739 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97778/0.96917/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:43 Penalty · LAC (5:43) PENALTY on LAC, Delay of Game, 0 yards, enforced at LAC 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1243
Half seconds remaining 1243
Quarter seconds remaining 343
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q302:26 Fourth down · LAC (2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.4391673385918365
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.7094444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:56 Kick · KC (3:56) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Fourth down decision cost KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.1785521154204675
Yardline 100 12
Elapsed share 0.9344444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q401:00 Fourth down · LAC (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Wease (51-R.Thomas). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.1468372699118476
Yardline 100 8
Elapsed share 0.9833333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q114:54 Penalty · KC (14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 34 for 33 yards (43-T.Dye) [52-K.Mack]. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 48. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:37 Penalty · KC (12:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-65-Tr.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:21 Kick · KC 7-H.Butker extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Extra point points above expectation KC -0.92 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q103:27 Penalty · LAC (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right tackle to KC 22 for 6 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at KC 22. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:40 Penalty · LAC (13:40) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace (95-C.Jones) at LAC 39. 30-C.Roland-Wallace to LAC 32 for 7 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on KC-97-A.Gillotte, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:19 Fourth down · LAC (12:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. Penalty on KC-8-K.Fulton, Illegal Contact, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:59 Fourth down · LAC (10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:19 Fumble · KC (4:19) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 28. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 49 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley). + Fumble recoveries above expectation KC 0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q201:49 Kick · KC 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Extra point points above expectation KC -0.92 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q201:49 Penalty · LAC 7-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LAC 8. 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 31 for 23 yards (31-J.Bassa). PENALTY on LAC-82-T.Wease, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:19 Penalty · KC (:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-22-G.Smith, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:07 Kick · KC (:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Field goal points above expectation KC -1.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q311:45 Penalty · LAC (11:45) 8-O.Hampton left guard to KC 2 for -1 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:48 Kick · LAC (10:48) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0.09 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.7671315503665311
Yardline 100 12
Elapsed share 0.57
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q305:40 Fourth down · LAC (5:40) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 99-P.Woods and 95-C.Jones). Penalty on LAC, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:34 Fumble · LAC (4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Fourth down · LAC (15:00) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to KC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 56-G.Karlaftis). Penalty on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:42 Penalty · LAC (14:42) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith pushed ob at KC 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on LAC-84-K.Lambert-Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:52 Fourth down · LAC (13:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 38 for 5 yards (20-N.Williams). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.3462298095279966
Yardline 100 43
Elapsed share 0.7688888888888888
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q409:50 Fumble · LAC (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 36 for 1 yard (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at KC 38. + Fumble recoveries above expectation KC 0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q409:43 Penalty · KC (9:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 44 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson). KC-76-K.Suamataia was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-76-K.Suamataia, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:28 Penalty · LAC (1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
SHA-256 f8f9feebec30adf67dd9a2d7bc88d102889e32fad0254a3caa3d845c8cbdae1e
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 11:36 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5667b30d1ee1de25d76b9502c14fd6786206efe67fe1ab2dda207bda858e4d4fnflverse-raw-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 11:36 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 abba819711f94fcd96ab7d86fdc86cb4c6cf7cda7a8fa12195a297104bb616f7Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 0840f06cc92affa3642d5785a68def5088b87f4b4fdd782612e74cfffe2f4cd6
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 1:54 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 18, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-13
Game seconds remaining 1243
Half seconds remaining 1243
Quarter seconds remaining 343
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence KC 0 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1243
Half seconds remaining 1243
Quarter seconds remaining 343
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team KC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1243
Half seconds remaining 1243
Quarter seconds remaining 343
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-13
Game seconds remaining 1046
Half seconds remaining 1046
Quarter seconds remaining 146
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.02654758346961612 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02611/ NA/0.02655 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
13
Game seconds remaining 236
Half seconds remaining 236
Quarter seconds remaining 236
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.997053682263199 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99029/0.99705/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation KC -1.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
-16
Quarter seconds remaining 60
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.001812546181155763 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00181/0.00046/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-16
Game seconds remaining 1548
Half seconds remaining 1548
Quarter seconds remaining 648
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.03367520186324723 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03368/0.03282/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LAC 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-13
Game seconds remaining 832
Half seconds remaining 832
Quarter seconds remaining 832
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.03163249818410801 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03163/0.03079/0.02360 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled