The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated
Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score
Fair · 1/5
Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: KC by 11.9; actual result: KC by 16.
The 4.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 515 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern
Fair · 1/5
Combined penalty yards: 148 versus 93.5 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 303 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread
Fair · 1/5
Recorded spread: KC by 7.5; actual result: KC by 16. The difference was 8.5 points.
3,644 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive
Fair · 1/5
No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds
Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.
Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
3,644 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (50.1%).
Where this comparison comes from
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback
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Notable plays 2+
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 07:16Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 1650
(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Wease (38-L.Sneed). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease pushed ob at LAC 32 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.
Estimated chance to win moved 4.2 percentage points across this play.
(1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.
Defensive penalty on KC awarded LAC a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review.
Estimated chance to win moved 0.2 percentage points across this play.
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Q114:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 34 for 33 yards (43-T.Dye) [52-K.Mack]. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 48.Play 74
(14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 34 for 33 yards (43-T.Dye) [52-K.Mack]. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 48.
CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 39Optional calculations for individual plays.+
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q100:50Penalty · KC(:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 13-C.Allen (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.+
In 48 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 10.9 accepted penalties for 92.1 yards across both teams.
Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee
LAC
KC
Games
5
3
Wins–losses–ties
2–3–0
2–1–0
Team penalties per game
4.6 / 37.4 yd
4 / 27.7 yd
Referee comparison details
Home teams: 5.2 / 42.1 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 50 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Alan Eck; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline.
The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away.
Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome.
Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting.
Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled.
Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
About this chart
145 model estimates across 166 recorded game entries.
21 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (166 entries)
Kansas City Chiefs chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Q112:37(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-65-Tr.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32 - No Play.Play 179
(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-65-Tr.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32 - No Play.
Q111:207-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to LAC 7. 34-K.Mitchell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 29 for 17 yards (85-A.Armstrong).Play 283
7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to LAC 7. 34-K.Mitchell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 29 for 17 yards (85-A.Armstrong).
Q111:12(11:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 28 for -1 yards (20-N.Williams). KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.Play 319
(11:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 28 for -1 yards (20-N.Williams). KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.
Q107:21(7:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to KC 48 for 17 yards (32-N.Bolton; 20-N.Williams). ** Injury Update: KC-20-N.Williams has returned to the game.Play 624
(7:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to KC 48 for 17 yards (32-N.Bolton; 20-N.Williams). ** Injury Update: KC-20-N.Williams has returned to the game.
Q103:27(3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right tackle to KC 22 for 6 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at KC 22.Play 767
(3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right tackle to KC 22 for 6 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at KC 22.
Q100:50(:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 13-C.Allen (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.Play 955
(:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 13-C.Allen (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.
Q213:40(13:40) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace (95-C.Jones) at LAC 39. 30-C.Roland-Wallace to LAC 32 for 7 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on KC-97-A.Gillotte, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 24 - No Play.Play 1215
(13:40) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace (95-C.Jones) at LAC 39. 30-C.Roland-Wallace to LAC 32 for 7 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on KC-97-A.Gillotte, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 24 - No Play.
Q212:19(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. Penalty on KC-8-K.Fulton, Illegal Contact, offsetting.Play 1343
(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. Penalty on KC-8-K.Fulton, Illegal Contact, offsetting.
Q210:59(10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined.Play 1430
(10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q207:16(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Wease (38-L.Sneed). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease pushed ob at LAC 32 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed).Play 1650
(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Wease (38-L.Sneed). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease pushed ob at LAC 32 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q204:19(4:19) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 28. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 49 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley).Play 1885
(4:19) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 28. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 49 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley).
Q201:497-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LAC 8. 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 31 for 23 yards (31-J.Bassa). PENALTY on LAC-82-T.Wease, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26.Play 2095
7-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LAC 8. 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 31 for 23 yards (31-J.Bassa). PENALTY on LAC-82-T.Wease, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26.
Q311:45(11:45) 8-O.Hampton left guard to KC 2 for -1 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 1 - No Play.Play 2557
(11:45) 8-O.Hampton left guard to KC 2 for -1 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 1 - No Play.
Q304:34(4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.Play 3033
(4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Q415:00(15:00) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to KC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 56-G.Karlaftis). Penalty on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.Play 3401
(15:00) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to KC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 56-G.Karlaftis). Penalty on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
Q414:42(14:42) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith pushed ob at KC 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on LAC-84-K.Lambert-Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play.Play 3434
(14:42) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith pushed ob at KC 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on LAC-84-K.Lambert-Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play.
Q414:22(14:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to KC 43 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton). Kansas City challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)Play 3492
(14:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to KC 43 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton). Kansas City challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q409:50(9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 36 for 1 yard (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at KC 38.Play 3856
(9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 36 for 1 yard (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at KC 38.
Q409:43(9:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 44 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson). KC-76-K.Suamataia was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-76-K.Suamataia, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 38 - No Play.Play 3901
(9:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 44 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson). KC-76-K.Suamataia was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-76-K.Suamataia, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 38 - No Play.
Q403:45(3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 8-K.Fulton). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.Play 4244
(3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 8-K.Fulton). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.
Q402:54(2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 28-K.Vidal to KC 28 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton; 23-D.Tranquill) [91-F.Anudike-Uzomah].Play 4328
(2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 28-K.Vidal to KC 28 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton; 23-D.Tranquill) [91-F.Anudike-Uzomah].
Q401:28(1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.Play 4423
(1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:36Fourth down · LAC(:36) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 30 for 7 yards (32-K.Williamson; 43-T.Dye).+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:45Penalty · LAC(3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 8-K.Fulton). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 27 recorded events
Q306:34Fourth down · KC(6:34) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 1 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe; 58-M.Wax).+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Q114:54Penalty · KC(14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 34 for 33 yards (43-T.Dye) [52-K.Mack]. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 48.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:37Penalty · KC(12:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-65-Tr.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:40Penalty · LAC(13:40) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace (95-C.Jones) at LAC 39. 30-C.Roland-Wallace to LAC 32 for 7 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on KC-97-A.Gillotte, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 24 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:19Fourth down · LAC(12:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. Penalty on KC-8-K.Fulton, Illegal Contact, offsetting.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:59Fourth down · LAC(10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:19Fumble · KC(4:19) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 28. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 49 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley).+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q201:49Penalty · LAC7-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LAC 8. 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 31 for 23 yards (31-J.Bassa). PENALTY on LAC-82-T.Wease, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q311:45Penalty · LAC(11:45) 8-O.Hampton left guard to KC 2 for -1 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-66-J.Slaughter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 1 - No Play.+
Q305:40Fourth down · LAC(5:40) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 99-P.Woods and 95-C.Jones). Penalty on LAC, Illegal Shift, declined.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:34Fumble · LAC(4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q415:00Fourth down · LAC(15:00) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to KC 44 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 56-G.Karlaftis). Penalty on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:42Penalty · LAC(14:42) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith pushed ob at KC 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on LAC-84-K.Lambert-Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play.+
Q409:50Fumble · LAC(9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 36 for 1 yard (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at KC 38.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q409:43Penalty · KC(9:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 44 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson). KC-76-K.Suamataia was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-76-K.Suamataia, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 38 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:28Penalty · LAC(1:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-T.Wease to KC 26 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.+
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.