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FINAL SCORE

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

NO 34—NYG 27

✓ Analysis completeUpdated Oct 19, 2026, 1:35 PM UTC

GAME RATING

Fair

1 / 5

Fair
Debatable
Hmm
Sus
RIGGED?

The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

How this rating was calculated

Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

Result versus box score

Fair · 1/5

Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NO by 2.3; actual result: NO by 7.

The 4.7-point difference was matched or exceeded in 473 of 816 earlier comparison games.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalty pattern

Fair · 1/5

Combined penalty count: 17 versus 12.8 expected.

The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 495 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Result versus spread

Fair · 1/5

Recorded spread: NO by 1.5; actual result: NO by 7. The difference was 5.5 points.

4,831 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalties extending one drive

Fair · 1/5

No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.

The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.

The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.

Rating thresholds

Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.

Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.

Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.

Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.

RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.

Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.

These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.

Full methodology ↗

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Actual team statistics for NO at NYG
Game statistic	NOWIN	NYGLOSS
Points scored	34	27
Total offensive yards	319	461
Penalties	7	10
Penalty yards	52	73
Turnover margin	+3	-3
Non-offensive touchdowns	0	0

Spread vs. result

Within the usual range

Expected marginNew Orleans Saints by 1.5

Final marginNew Orleans Saints by 7

Difference5.5 points

New Orleans Saints covered the spread.

4,831 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (66.4%).

Where this comparison comes from

The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.

The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.

View the source data ↗

Did the score fit the performance?

Yardage + turnovers

Expected from the box scoreNO by 2.3

Actual final marginNO by 7

Difference4.7 points

This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.

473 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.

Were the penalties unusual?

Accepted penalties / yards

Actual penalties compared with league, team, opponent and referee expectations
Comparison	NO	NYG
Actual	7 / 52 yd	10 / 73 yd
Expected for this matchup	6.5 / 54.1 yd	6.3 / 51.9 yd
League average	6 / 49.5 yd	6 / 49.5 yd
Team’s usual penalties	6.1 / 52 yd · 85 games	6.2 / 49.6 yd · 85 games
Opponent usually draws	6.6 / 52.6 yd · 85 games	6 / 49.5 yd · 85 games

The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 495 of 779 comparison games.

Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.

The referee: Alex Kemp

Head official

Assignment: Football Zebras

In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.7 accepted penalties for 106.1 yards across both teams.

Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee	NO	NYG
Games	6	3
Wins–losses–ties	3–3–0	1–2–0
Team penalties per game	7.3 / 59.2 yd	6.7 / 61.7 yd

Referee comparison details

Home teams: 6 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 58.4 yd per game.

These are crew totals in games led by Alex Kemp; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.

Comparison coverage & method

Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.

Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.

Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline.
The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away.
Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome.
Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting.
Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled.

Model: under-review-expectations-v1

Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7

THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE

How the result took shape

New York Giants · Sacks allowed

Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.

See play 878 ↗See play 1122 ↗See play 1142 ↗See play 3391 ↗See play 4672 ↗

New York Giants · Opponent penalties

Opponent NO was charged 7 penalties for 52 yards.

See play 40 ↗See play 675 ↗See play 711 ↗See play 1011 ↗See play 1640 ↗See play 2273 ↗See play 3953 ↗

New Orleans Saints · Opponent penalties

Opponent NYG was charged 10 penalties for 73 yards.

See play 1564 ↗See play 2363 ↗See play 2482 ↗See play 2611 ↗See play 2635 ↗See play 3183 ↗See play 4491 ↗See play 4599 ↗See play 4648 ↗See play 4873 ↗

Historical coverage & audit method

14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons

Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1

Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385

Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.

HOW THE GAME MOVED

Game momentum

New York Giants chance to win · vs. New Orleans SaintsBefore-play estimates

About this chart

170 model estimates across 204 recorded game entries.

34 entries have no estimate.

Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.

The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.

View all chart data (204 entries)

New York Giants chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Period	Clock	Source play	NYG win chance	Estimate source
Q1	15:00	Play 1 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 40 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 78 ↗	57.3%	Regulation model
Q1	14:28	Play 103 ↗	54.6%	Regulation model
Q1	14:22	Play 126 ↗	51.1%	Regulation model
Q1	14:18	Play 149 ↗	48.8%	Regulation model
Q1	14:09	Play 180 ↗	47.8%	Regulation model
Q1	13:31	Play 203 ↗	49.3%	Regulation model
Q1	12:58	Play 225 ↗	45.2%	Regulation model
Q1	12:55	Play 248 ↗	46.8%	Regulation model
Q1	12:12	Play 270 ↗	49.1%	Regulation model
Q1	12:08	Play 293 ↗	52.8%	Regulation model
Q1	11:58	Play 313 ↗	53.1%	Regulation model
Q1	11:22	Play 342 ↗	52.5%	Regulation model
Q1	10:39	Play 364 ↗	49.6%	Regulation model
Q1	10:03	Play 389 ↗	54.7%	Regulation model
Q1	09:29	Play 416 ↗	58.0%	Regulation model
Q1	09:24	Play 439 ↗	56.2%	Regulation model
Q1	08:52	Play 469 ↗	55.8%	Regulation model
Q1	08:09	Play 491 ↗	50.9%	Regulation model
Q1	07:26	Play 513 ↗	58.4%	Regulation model
Q1	06:45	Play 538 ↗	66.3%	Regulation model
Q1	06:07	Play 560 ↗	65.1%	Regulation model
Q1	05:23	Play 582 ↗	63.4%	Regulation model
Q1	05:14	Play 608 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	05:14	Play 623 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	05:08	Play 653 ↗	68.6%	Regulation model
Q1	04:23	Play 675 ↗	68.2%	Regulation model
Q1	03:59	Play 711 ↗	72.5%	Regulation model
Q1	03:37	Play 747 ↗	73.2%	Regulation model
Q1	02:50	Play 772 ↗	75.2%	Regulation model
Q1	02:07	Play 797 ↗	73.7%	Regulation model
Q1	02:00	Play 826 ↗	73.4%	Regulation model
Q1	01:15	Play 855 ↗	69.5%	Regulation model
Q1	01:12	Play 878 ↗	66.9%	Regulation model
Q1	00:32	Play 898 ↗	64.1%	Regulation model
Q1	00:21	Play 924 ↗	67.4%	Regulation model
Q1	00:00	Play 946 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	15:00	Play 966 ↗	67.7%	Regulation model
Q2	14:23	Play 988 ↗	70.4%	Regulation model
Q2	14:20	Play 1011 ↗	73.2%	Regulation model
Q2	14:20	Play 1039 ↗	74.2%	Regulation model
Q2	14:08	Play 1065 ↗	73.4%	Regulation model
Q2	13:27	Play 1097 ↗	74.4%	Regulation model
Q2	12:46	Play 1122 ↗	75.4%	Regulation model
Q2	11:58	Play 1142 ↗	73.9%	Regulation model
Q2	11:21	Play 1162 ↗	71.7%	Regulation model
Q2	11:10	Play 1188 ↗	70.4%	Regulation model
Q2	11:05	Play 1218 ↗	71.8%	Regulation model
Q2	10:35	Play 1243 ↗	73.3%	Regulation model
Q2	10:05	Play 1268 ↗	68.5%	Regulation model
Q2	09:28	Play 1290 ↗	69.4%	Regulation model
Q2	09:21	Play 1313 ↗	72.0%	Regulation model
Q2	08:32	Play 1335 ↗	66.7%	Regulation model
Q2	07:54	Play 1365 ↗	63.9%	Regulation model
Q2	07:46	Play 1388 ↗	65.2%	Regulation model
Q2	06:59	Play 1413 ↗	68.0%	Regulation model
Q2	06:56	Play 1436 ↗	71.1%	Regulation model
Q2	06:51	Play 1460 ↗	79.4%	Regulation model
Q2	06:09	Play 1497 ↗	79.7%	Regulation model
Q2	05:37	Play 1519 ↗	79.0%	Regulation model
Q2	04:57	Play 1541 ↗	80.6%	Regulation model
Q2	04:54	Play 1564 ↗	79.4%	Regulation model
Q2	04:54	Play 1588 ↗	77.6%	Regulation model
Q2	04:17	Play 1618 ↗	81.9%	Regulation model
Q2	03:39	Play 1640 ↗	82.1%	Regulation model
Q2	03:18	Play 1672 ↗	85.2%	Regulation model
Q2	02:39	Play 1694 ↗	83.8%	Regulation model
Q2	02:35	Play 1717 ↗	82.9%	Regulation model
Q2	02:30	Play 1740 ↗	81.0%	Regulation model
Q2	02:27	Play 1760 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	02:20	Play 1795 ↗	76.0%	Regulation model
Q2	02:00	Play 1817 ↗	76.3%	Regulation model
Q2	01:57	Play 1850 ↗	78.1%	Regulation model
Q2	01:35	Play 1875 ↗	75.8%	Regulation model
Q2	01:30	Play 1898 ↗	76.9%	Regulation model
Q2	01:27	Play 1933 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:27	Play 1921 ↗	79.4%	Regulation model
Q2	01:23	Play 1951 ↗	81.7%	Regulation model
Q2	01:18	Play 1971 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:11	Play 2017 ↗	63.0%	Regulation model
Q2	00:51	Play 2051 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:51	Play 2039 ↗	57.8%	Regulation model
Q2	00:45	Play 2087 ↗	60.2%	Regulation model
Q2	00:39	Play 2121 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:39	Play 2109 ↗	59.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:05	Play 2150 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:05	Play 2138 ↗	66.3%	Regulation model
Q2	00:01	Play 2171 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:01	Play 2186 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:01	Play 2203 ↗	53.4%	Regulation model
Q2	00:00	Play 2225 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	15:00	Play 2245 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	14:54	Play 2273 ↗	53.8%	Regulation model
Q3	14:30	Play 2306 ↗	56.6%	Regulation model
Q3	14:02	Play 2336 ↗	54.8%	Regulation model
Q3	13:38	Play 2363 ↗	50.6%	Regulation model
Q3	13:32	Play 2397 ↗	48.1%	Regulation model
Q3	13:08	Play 2419 ↗	42.7%	Regulation model
Q3	12:31	Play 2441 ↗	44.2%	Regulation model
Q3	12:21	Play 2467 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	12:21	Play 2482 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	12:14	Play 2523 ↗	28.5%	Regulation model
Q3	11:38	Play 2545 ↗	27.4%	Regulation model
Q3	11:34	Play 2568 ↗	25.4%	Regulation model
Q3	11:23	Play 2611 ↗	25.4%	Regulation model
Q3	11:23	Play 2635 ↗	24.5%	Regulation model
Q3	11:23	Play 2664 ↗	23.8%	Regulation model
Q3	10:44	Play 2689 ↗	22.3%	Regulation model
Q3	10:32	Play 2720 ↗	22.6%	Regulation model
Q3	09:57	Play 2749 ↗	22.4%	Regulation model
Q3	09:20	Play 2771 ↗	20.0%	Regulation model
Q3	08:36	Play 2793 ↗	19.9%	Regulation model
Q3	08:12	Play 2829 ↗	15.7%	Regulation model
Q3	07:35	Play 2859 ↗	13.9%	Regulation model
Q3	06:55	Play 2881 ↗	13.0%	Regulation model
Q3	06:11	Play 2903 ↗	11.3%	Regulation model
Q3	05:48	Play 2953 ↗	12.1%	Regulation model
Q3	05:43	Play 2976 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	05:43	Play 2991 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	05:37	Play 3026 ↗	10.7%	Regulation model
Q3	05:14	Play 3051 ↗	12.8%	Regulation model
Q3	05:09	Play 3074 ↗	11.5%	Regulation model
Q3	04:37	Play 3099 ↗	12.3%	Regulation model
Q3	04:23	Play 3129 ↗	11.8%	Regulation model
Q3	04:16	Play 3161 ↗	5.0%	Regulation model
Q3	03:35	Play 3183 ↗	5.2%	Regulation model
Q3	03:04	Play 3216 ↗	3.9%	Regulation model
Q3	02:32	Play 3246 ↗	4.5%	Regulation model
Q3	01:52	Play 3268 ↗	5.0%	Regulation model
Q3	01:17	Play 3298 ↗	5.7%	Regulation model
Q3	01:12	Play 3318 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	01:08	Play 3346 ↗	5.8%	Regulation model
Q3	00:44	Play 3368 ↗	4.1%	Regulation model
Q3	00:39	Play 3391 ↗	3.9%	Regulation model
Q3	00:00	Play 3411 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	15:00	Play 3435 ↗	2.0%	Regulation model
Q4	14:50	Play 3466 ↗	2.0%	Regulation model
Q4	14:06	Play 3488 ↗	2.3%	Regulation model
Q4	13:24	Play 3510 ↗	2.4%	Regulation model
Q4	12:48	Play 3535 ↗	3.2%	Regulation model
Q4	12:41	Play 3555 ↗	2.7%	Regulation model
Q4	12:28	Play 3597 ↗	3.0%	Regulation model
Q4	12:19	Play 3628 ↗	1.2%	Regulation model
Q4	11:36	Play 3655 ↗	1.1%	Regulation model
Q4	11:31	Play 3681 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	11:31	Play 3696 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	11:25	Play 3726 ↗	0.2%	Regulation model
Q4	11:03	Play 3748 ↗	0.2%	Regulation model
Q4	10:35	Play 3773 ↗	0.1%	Regulation model
Q4	10:31	Play 3796 ↗	0.1%	Regulation model
Q4	10:27	Play 3819 ↗	0.1%	Regulation model
Q4	10:22	Play 3846 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	09:40	Play 3868 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	09:31	Play 3909 ↗	0.1%	Regulation model
Q4	09:08	Play 3931 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	08:29	Play 3953 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	08:24	Play 3990 ↗	0.0%	Regulation model
Q4	07:43	Play 4015 ↗	0.1%	Regulation model
Q4	07:08	Play 4040 ↗	0.2%	Regulation model
Q4	07:04	Play 4066 ↗	0.1%	Regulation model
Q4	07:00	Play 4101 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	07:00	Play 4114 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	06:59	Play 4142 ↗	0.5%	Regulation model
Q4	06:13	Play 4164 ↗	0.4%	Regulation model
Q4	06:08	Play 4199 ↗	0.4%	Regulation model
Q4	06:03	Play 4222 ↗	0.5%	Regulation model
Q4	05:54	Play 4253 ↗	1.6%	Regulation model
Q4	05:14	Play 4278 ↗	2.3%	Regulation model
Q4	05:11	Play 4355 ↗	2.5%	Regulation model
Q4	05:06	Play 4381 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	05:06	Play 4394 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	05:05	Play 4417 ↗	3.2%	Regulation model
Q4	05:01	Play 4451 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	05:01	Play 4439 ↗	4.1%	Regulation model
Q4	04:16	Play 4468 ↗	2.7%	Regulation model
Q4	04:13	Play 4491 ↗	4.4%	Regulation model
Q4	03:59	Play 4544 ↗	5.1%	Regulation model
Q4	03:34	Play 4569 ↗	5.4%	Regulation model
Q4	03:29	Play 4599 ↗	6.2%	Regulation model
Q4	03:29	Play 4623 ↗	5.4%	Regulation model
Q4	02:56	Play 4648 ↗	6.9%	Regulation model
Q4	02:56	Play 4672 ↗	6.7%	Regulation model
Q4	02:28	Play 4692 ↗	5.3%	Regulation model
Q4	02:09	Play 4717 ↗	5.7%	Regulation model
Q4	02:08	Play 4740 ↗	3.7%	Regulation model
Q4	02:04	Play 4760 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	01:59	Play 4786 ↗	2.5%	Regulation model
Q4	01:55	Play 4827 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	01:55	Play 4815 ↗	2.1%	Regulation model
Q4	01:51	Play 4856 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	01:51	Play 4844 ↗	2.2%	Regulation model
Q4	01:06	Play 4885 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	01:06	Play 4873 ↗	2.0%	Regulation model
Q4	00:57	Play 4917 ↗	6.0%	Regulation model
Q4	00:41	Play 4939 ↗	12.3%	Regulation model
Q4	00:40	Play 4962 ↗	10.1%	Regulation model
Q4	00:25	Play 4987 ↗	16.4%	Regulation model
Q4	00:24	Play 5010 ↗	14.1%	Regulation model
Q4	00:13	Play 5035 ↗	16.2%	Regulation model
Q4	00:12	Play 5070 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:12	Play 5058 ↗	10.4%	Regulation model
Q4	00:06	Play 5091 ↗	1.3%	Regulation model
Q4	00:00	Play 5113 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage

DIG INTO THE NUMBERSDetailed analysis by categoryOfficiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution.

Impact of officiating decisions

How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.

NYGObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Unsupported state

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:40

NOObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:675

NOObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:711

NYGObserved ruling consequence1.05 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1011

NYGRuling expected points consequence0.33 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1011

NYGObserved ruling consequence-1.79 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1564

NYGRuling expected points consequence-0.74 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1564

NYGObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1640

NOObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2273

NYGObserved ruling consequence-4.36 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2363

NYGRuling expected points consequence-1.52 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2363

NYGObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Unsupported state

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2482

NYGObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Multiple or unparsed penalties

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2568

NYGObserved ruling consequence-0.86 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2611

NYGRuling expected points consequence-0.78 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2611

NYGObserved ruling consequence-0.67 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2635

NYGRuling expected points consequence-0.37 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2635

NOObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Penalty declined

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2793

NOObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3183

NYGObserved ruling consequence0.02 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3953

NYGRuling expected points consequence2.96 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3953

NOObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Multiple or unparsed penalties

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4491

NYGObserved ruling consequence-0.77 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4599

NYGRuling expected points consequence-0.61 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4599

NYGObserved ruling consequence-0.15 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4648

NYGRuling expected points consequence-0.57 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4648

NOObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Clock or period ambiguity

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4873

Coaching decisions

Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.

NYGFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36747/ NA/0.40885
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:149

NOFourth down decision cost2.32 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59539/0.54642/0.57218
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:293

NYGFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45908/0.37086/0.43393
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:491

NOFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35532/ NA/0.36893
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:797

NYGFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Outside fourth down domain

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:898

NOFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1011

NOFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35087/ NA/0.38000
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1039

NYGFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58366/ NA/0.62123
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1162

NOFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36459/0.36808/0.35011
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1436

NYGFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.66233/0.67983/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1740

NOFourth down decision cost0.74 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27940/0.27202/0.27420
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1951

NOFourth down decision cost0.14 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47967/0.48102/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2138

NYGFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16421/ NA/0.16455
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2689

NOFourth down decision cost0.16 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96223/0.96067/0.95645
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3298

NYGFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01270/ NA/0.01352
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3435

NOFourth down decision cost0.33 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98294/ NA/0.97963
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3535

NOFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99085/0.98785/0.99286
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4222

NOFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4491

NYGFourth down decision cost1.06 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03020/0.01957/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4740

NOFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4873

NYGFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Outside fourth down domain

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:5058

Fumble recoveries

Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.

NYGFumble recoveries above expectation0.37 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON28th percentile

This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.

Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3868

NOFumble recoveries above expectation-0.37 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON28th percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3868

Kicking

Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.

NYGField goal points above expectation0.5 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1740 Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:4740

NOField goal points above expectation-0.08 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1436 Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:1951 Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3298

NYGExtra point points above expectation0.04 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient tail support

Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:608

NOExtra point points above expectation0.16 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON63rd percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2171 Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2467 Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:2976 Event 2026_06_NO_NYG:3681

Player execution

Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.

NYGExecution chartingUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Ftn charting unavailable

0 of 204 eligible opportunities modeled.

Model: FTN-charting

NOExecution chartingUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Ftn charting unavailable

0 of 204 eligible opportunities modeled.

Model: FTN-charting

Penalty patterns

Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.

NYGPresnap called penalties above expectation3.57 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 5 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NYGOffensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.21 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NYGDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.38 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NYGPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.4 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NOPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.48 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NOOffensive holding called penalties above expectation0.72 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NODefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.67 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 52 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NOPass interference called penalties above expectation0.28 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 52 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

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Notable plays 6

These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.

Q4 · 00:12Recorded game event

New York Giants · Play 5058

(:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.

Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game.

Estimated chance to win moved 9.2 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 00:13Recorded game event

New York Giants · Play 5035

(:13) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game.

Estimated chance to win moved 5.8 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play

Q3 · 06:11Recorded game event

New Orleans Saints · Play 2903

(6:11) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 1 for no gain (8-J.Holland).

Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.

Estimated chance to win moved 0.8 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play

Q4 · 05:14Recorded game event

New York Giants · Play 4278

(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 16. 22-M.Emerson ran ob at NO 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson).

Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.

Estimated chance to win moved 0.2 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play

Show 2 more plays

Q4 · 01:06Recorded game event

New Orleans Saints · Play 4873

(1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

Estimated chance to win moved 3.9 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 08:29Recorded game event

New York Giants · Play 3953

(8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.

Defensive penalty on NO awarded NYG a first down on third down; call correctness requires review.

Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

THE UNDERLYING RECORD

Source plays 204

Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.

Browse all 204 source plays

Q115:00GAMEPlay 1

GAME

Source play 1Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:0010-D.Carlson kicks 39 yards from NO 35 to NYG 26, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NYG 40.Play 40

10-D.Carlson kicks 39 yards from NO 35 to NYG 26, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NYG 40.

Source play 40Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 38 for -2 yards (29-Q.Riley).Play 78

(15:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 38 for -2 yards (29-Q.Riley).

Source play 78NYG preplay win probability: 57.3%Link to source play ↗

Q114:28(14:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (99-C.Young).Play 103

(14:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (99-C.Young).

Source play 103NYG preplay win probability: 54.6%Link to source play ↗

Q114:22(14:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.Play 126

(14:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.

Source play 126NYG preplay win probability: 51.1%Link to source play ↗

Q114:18(14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese).Play 149

(14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese).

Source play 149NYG preplay win probability: 48.8%Link to source play ↗

Q114:09(14:09) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 41 for 2 yards (52-A.Reese).Play 180

(14:09) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 41 for 2 yards (52-A.Reese).

Source play 180NYG preplay win probability: 47.8%Link to source play ↗

Q113:31(13:31) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland).Play 203

(13:31) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland).

Source play 203NYG preplay win probability: 49.3%Link to source play ↗

Q112:58(12:58) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.Play 225

(12:58) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.

Source play 225NYG preplay win probability: 45.2%Link to source play ↗

Q112:55(12:55) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 44 for 4 yards (98-D.Reader).Play 248

(12:55) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 44 for 4 yards (98-D.Reader).

Source play 248NYG preplay win probability: 46.8%Link to source play ↗

Q112:12(12:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (2-D.Banks).Play 270

(12:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (2-D.Banks).

Source play 270NYG preplay win probability: 49.1%Link to source play ↗

Q112:08(12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.Play 293

(12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

Source play 293NYG preplay win probability: 52.8%Link to source play ↗

Q111:58(11:58) 23-N.Harris up the middle to NYG 11 for 4 yards (99-C.Young; 20-P.Werner).Play 313

(11:58) 23-N.Harris up the middle to NYG 11 for 4 yards (99-C.Young; 20-P.Werner).

Source play 313NYG preplay win probability: 53.1%Link to source play ↗

Q111:22(11:22) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NYG 12 for 1 yard (20-P.Werner; 28-D.Stutsman).Play 342

(11:22) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NYG 12 for 1 yard (20-P.Werner; 28-D.Stutsman).

Source play 342NYG preplay win probability: 52.5%Link to source play ↗

Q110:39(10:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to NYG 23 for 11 yards (29-Q.Riley).Play 364

(10:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to NYG 23 for 11 yards (29-Q.Riley).

Source play 364NYG preplay win probability: 49.6%Link to source play ↗

Q110:03(10:03) 17-D.Mooney right end pushed ob at NYG 43 for 20 yards (29-Q.Riley).Play 389

(10:03) 17-D.Mooney right end pushed ob at NYG 43 for 20 yards (29-Q.Riley).

Source play 389NYG preplay win probability: 54.7%Link to source play ↗

Q109:29(9:29) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney (29-Q.Riley).Play 416

(9:29) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney (29-Q.Riley).

Source play 416NYG preplay win probability: 58.0%Link to source play ↗

Q109:24(9:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at 50 for 7 yards (29-Q.Riley).Play 439

(9:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at 50 for 7 yards (29-Q.Riley).

Source play 439NYG preplay win probability: 56.2%Link to source play ↗

Q108:52(8:52) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris right end to NO 48 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner).Play 469

(8:52) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris right end to NO 48 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner).

Source play 469NYG preplay win probability: 55.8%Link to source play ↗

Q108:09(8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).Play 491

(8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).

Source play 491NYG preplay win probability: 50.9%Link to source play ↗

Q107:26(7:26) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 9-I.Likely to NO 21 for 24 yards (7-J.Sanker).Play 513

(7:26) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 9-I.Likely to NO 21 for 24 yards (7-J.Sanker).

Source play 513NYG preplay win probability: 58.4%Link to source play ↗

Q106:45(6:45) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard to NO 17 for 4 yards (20-P.Werner).Play 538

(6:45) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard to NO 17 for 4 yards (20-P.Werner).

Source play 538NYG preplay win probability: 66.3%Link to source play ↗

Q106:07(6:07) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end to NO 17 for no gain (98-T.Wilson).Play 560

(6:07) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end to NO 17 for no gain (98-T.Wilson).

Source play 560NYG preplay win probability: 65.1%Link to source play ↗

Q105:23(5:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan].Play 582

(5:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan].

Source play 582NYG preplay win probability: 63.4%Link to source play ↗

Q105:1434-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.Play 608

34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Source play 608Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q105:1434-D.Zvada kicks 58 yards from NYG 35 to NO 7. 19-B.Brown to NO 32 for 25 yards (54-M.Harrison; 31-N.Jones).Play 623

34-D.Zvada kicks 58 yards from NYG 35 to NO 7. 19-B.Brown to NO 32 for 25 yards (54-M.Harrison; 31-N.Jones).

Source play 623Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q105:08(5:08) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 37 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).Play 653

(5:08) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 37 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

Source play 653NYG preplay win probability: 68.6%Link to source play ↗

Q104:23(4:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 39 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play.Play 675

(4:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 39 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play.

Source play 675NYG preplay win probability: 68.2%Link to source play ↗

Q103:59(3:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 45 for 18 yards (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.Play 711

(3:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 45 for 18 yards (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.

Source play 711NYG preplay win probability: 72.5%Link to source play ↗

Q103:37(3:37) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 17 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds).Play 747

(3:37) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 17 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds).

Source play 747NYG preplay win probability: 73.2%Link to source play ↗

Q102:50(2:50) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 14-D.Vele to NO 33 for 16 yards (24-A.Washington).Play 772

(2:50) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 14-D.Vele to NO 33 for 16 yards (24-A.Washington).

Source play 772NYG preplay win probability: 75.2%Link to source play ↗

Q102:07(2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.Play 797

(2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

Source play 797NYG preplay win probability: 73.7%Link to source play ↗

Q102:00(2:00) 23-N.Harris right end to NYG 8 for -6 yards (94-C.Jordan).Play 826

(2:00) 23-N.Harris right end to NYG 8 for -6 yards (94-C.Jordan).

Source play 826NYG preplay win probability: 73.4%Link to source play ↗

Q101:15(1:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (20-P.Werner).Play 855

(1:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (20-P.Werner).

Source play 855NYG preplay win probability: 69.5%Link to source play ↗

Q101:12(1:12) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 8 for 0 yards (96-C.Granderson).Play 878

(1:12) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 8 for 0 yards (96-C.Granderson).

Source play 878NYG preplay win probability: 66.9%Link to source play ↗

Q100:32(:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes).Play 898

(:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes).

Source play 898NYG preplay win probability: 64.1%Link to source play ↗

Q100:21(:21) 43-C.Donaldson left guard to NO 44 for 3 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 8-J.Holland).Play 924

(:21) 43-C.Donaldson left guard to NO 44 for 3 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 8-J.Holland).

Source play 924NYG preplay win probability: 67.4%Link to source play ↗

Q100:00END QUARTER 1Play 946

END QUARTER 1

Source play 946Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q215:00(15:00) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 44 for no gain (24-A.Washington).Play 966

(15:00) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 44 for no gain (24-A.Washington).

Source play 966NYG preplay win probability: 67.7%Link to source play ↗

Q214:23(14:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Holland).Play 988

(14:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Holland).

Source play 988NYG preplay win probability: 70.4%Link to source play ↗

Q214:20(14:20) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.Play 1011

(14:20) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.

Source play 1011NYG preplay win probability: 73.2%Link to source play ↗

Q214:20(14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson).Play 1039

(14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson).

Source play 1039NYG preplay win probability: 74.2%Link to source play ↗

Q214:08(14:08) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 31 for 14 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 21-J.Reid).Play 1065

(14:08) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 31 for 14 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 21-J.Reid).

Source play 1065NYG preplay win probability: 73.4%Link to source play ↗

Q213:27(13:27) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 34 for 3 yards (22-M.Emerson).Play 1097

(13:27) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 34 for 3 yards (22-M.Emerson).

Source play 1097NYG preplay win probability: 74.4%Link to source play ↗

Q212:46(12:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 34 for 0 yards (99-C.Young).Play 1122

(12:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 34 for 0 yards (99-C.Young).

Source play 1122NYG preplay win probability: 75.4%Link to source play ↗

Q211:58(11:58) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 33 for -1 yards (20-P.Werner).Play 1142

(11:58) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 33 for -1 yards (20-P.Werner).

Source play 1142NYG preplay win probability: 73.9%Link to source play ↗

Q211:21(11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford).Play 1162

(11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford).

Source play 1162NYG preplay win probability: 71.7%Link to source play ↗

Q211:10(11:10) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele.Play 1188

(11:10) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele.

Source play 1188NYG preplay win probability: 70.4%Link to source play ↗

Q211:05(11:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to NO 27 for 3 yards (24-A.Washington).Play 1218

(11:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to NO 27 for 3 yards (24-A.Washington).

Source play 1218NYG preplay win probability: 71.8%Link to source play ↗

Q210:35(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 34 for 7 yards (20-G.Newsome).Play 1243

(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 34 for 7 yards (20-G.Newsome).

Source play 1243NYG preplay win probability: 73.3%Link to source play ↗

Q210:05(10:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end to NO 36 for 2 yards (48-T.Ford; 22-A.Phillips).Play 1268

(10:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end to NO 36 for 2 yards (48-T.Ford; 22-A.Phillips).

Source play 1268NYG preplay win probability: 68.5%Link to source play ↗

Q209:28(9:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele.Play 1290

(9:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele.

Source play 1290NYG preplay win probability: 69.4%Link to source play ↗

Q209:21(9:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles up the middle to NO 45 for 9 yards (22-A.Phillips).Play 1313

(9:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles up the middle to NO 45 for 9 yards (22-A.Phillips).

Source play 1313NYG preplay win probability: 72.0%Link to source play ↗

Q208:32(8:32) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 37 for 18 yards (22-A.Phillips).Play 1335

(8:32) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 37 for 18 yards (22-A.Phillips).

Source play 1335NYG preplay win probability: 66.7%Link to source play ↗

Q207:54(7:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara. NO-41-A.Kamara was injured during the play.Play 1365

(7:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara. NO-41-A.Kamara was injured during the play.

Source play 1365NYG preplay win probability: 63.9%Link to source play ↗

Q207:46(7:46) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to NYG 37 for no gain (52-A.Reese).Play 1388

(7:46) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to NYG 37 for no gain (52-A.Reese).

Source play 1388NYG preplay win probability: 65.2%Link to source play ↗

Q206:59(6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance.Play 1413

(6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance.

Source play 1413NYG preplay win probability: 68.0%Link to source play ↗

Q206:56(6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Play 1436

(6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Source play 1436NYG preplay win probability: 71.1%Link to source play ↗

Q206:51(6:51) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 48 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 98-T.Wilson).Play 1460

(6:51) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 48 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 98-T.Wilson).

Source play 1460NYG preplay win probability: 79.4%Link to source play ↗

Q206:09(6:09) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (58-C.Rumph; 20-P.Werner).Play 1497

(6:09) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (58-C.Rumph; 20-P.Werner).

Source play 1497NYG preplay win probability: 79.7%Link to source play ↗

Q205:37(5:37) 19-J.Winston up the middle to NO 44 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton; 20-P.Werner).Play 1519

(5:37) 19-J.Winston up the middle to NO 44 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton; 20-P.Werner).

Source play 1519NYG preplay win probability: 79.0%Link to source play ↗

Q204:57(4:57) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 88-M.Fields (28-D.Stutsman).Play 1541

(4:57) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 88-M.Fields (28-D.Stutsman).

Source play 1541NYG preplay win probability: 80.6%Link to source play ↗

Q204:54(4:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.Play 1564

(4:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.

Source play 1564NYG preplay win probability: 79.4%Link to source play ↗

Q204:54(4:54) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 31 for 18 yards (94-C.Jordan).Play 1588

(4:54) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 31 for 18 yards (94-C.Jordan).

Source play 1588NYG preplay win probability: 77.6%Link to source play ↗

Q204:17(4:17) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NO 29 for 2 yards (96-C.Granderson; 21-J.Reid).Play 1618

(4:17) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NO 29 for 2 yards (96-C.Granderson; 21-J.Reid).

Source play 1618NYG preplay win probability: 81.9%Link to source play ↗

Q203:39(3:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NO 35 for -6 yards (91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on NO-91-V.Broughton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.Play 1640

(3:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NO 35 for -6 yards (91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on NO-91-V.Broughton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.

Source play 1640NYG preplay win probability: 82.1%Link to source play ↗

Q203:18(3:18) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (22-M.Emerson).Play 1672

(3:18) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (22-M.Emerson).

Source play 1672NYG preplay win probability: 85.2%Link to source play ↗

Q202:39(2:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Fields.Play 1694

(2:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Fields.

Source play 1694NYG preplay win probability: 83.8%Link to source play ↗

Q202:35(2:35) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.Play 1717

(2:35) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.

Source play 1717NYG preplay win probability: 82.9%Link to source play ↗

Q202:30(2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.Play 1740

(2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Source play 1740NYG preplay win probability: 81.0%Link to source play ↗

Q202:2734-D.Zvada kicks 62 yards from NYG 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 44 for 41 yards (24-A.Washington).Play 1760

34-D.Zvada kicks 62 yards from NYG 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 44 for 41 yards (24-A.Washington).

Source play 1760Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q202:20(2:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 48 for 4 yards (20-G.Newsome; 98-D.Reader). ** Injury Update: NO-41-A.Kamara has returned to the game.Play 1795

(2:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 48 for 4 yards (20-G.Newsome; 98-D.Reader). ** Injury Update: NO-41-A.Kamara has returned to the game.

Source play 1795NYG preplay win probability: 76.0%Link to source play ↗

Q202:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (20-G.Newsome).Play 1817

(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (20-G.Newsome).

Source play 1817NYG preplay win probability: 76.3%Link to source play ↗

Q201:57(1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to NYG 40 for 12 yards (49-T.Edmunds). ** Injury Update: NO-43-C.Donaldson has returned to the game.Play 1850

(1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to NYG 40 for 12 yards (49-T.Edmunds). ** Injury Update: NO-43-C.Donaldson has returned to the game.

Source play 1850NYG preplay win probability: 78.1%Link to source play ↗

Q201:35(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 43-C.Donaldson.Play 1875

(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 43-C.Donaldson.

Source play 1875NYG preplay win probability: 75.8%Link to source play ↗

Q201:30(1:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson (25-J.Pinnock).Play 1898

(1:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson (25-J.Pinnock).

Source play 1898NYG preplay win probability: 76.9%Link to source play ↗

Q201:27Timeout #1 by NYG at 01:27.Play 1933

Timeout #1 by NYG at 01:27.

Source play 1933Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q201:27(1:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance.Play 1921

(1:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance.

Source play 1921NYG preplay win probability: 79.4%Link to source play ↗

Q201:23(1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Play 1951

(1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Source play 1951NYG preplay win probability: 81.7%Link to source play ↗

Q201:1810-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28.Play 1971

10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28.

Source play 1971Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q201:11(1:11) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end to NYG 3 for 25 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 20-G.Newsome).Play 2017

(1:11) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end to NYG 3 for 25 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 20-G.Newsome).

Source play 2017NYG preplay win probability: 63.0%Link to source play ↗

Q200:51Timeout #2 by NYG at 00:51.Play 2051

Timeout #2 by NYG at 00:51.

Source play 2051Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:51(:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough right end pushed ob at NYG 5 for -2 yards (8-J.Holland).Play 2039

(:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough right end pushed ob at NYG 5 for -2 yards (8-J.Holland).

Source play 2039NYG preplay win probability: 57.8%Link to source play ↗

Q200:45(:45) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 1 for 4 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).Play 2087

(:45) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 1 for 4 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).

Source play 2087NYG preplay win probability: 60.2%Link to source play ↗

Q200:39Timeout #3 by NYG at 00:39.Play 2121

Timeout #3 by NYG at 00:39.

Source play 2121Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:39(:39) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 2 for -1 yards (98-D.Reader).Play 2109

(:39) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 2 for -1 yards (98-D.Reader).

Source play 2109NYG preplay win probability: 59.9%Link to source play ↗

Q200:05Timeout #1 by NO at 00:05.Play 2150

Timeout #1 by NO at 00:05.

Source play 2150Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:05(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 2138

(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 2138NYG preplay win probability: 66.3%Link to source play ↗

Q200:0110-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Play 2171

10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Source play 2171Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:0110-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NYG 35.Play 2186

10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NYG 35.

Source play 2186Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:01(:01) 19-J.Winston kneels to NYG 34 for -1 yards.Play 2203

(:01) 19-J.Winston kneels to NYG 34 for -1 yards.

Source play 2203NYG preplay win probability: 53.4%Link to source play ↗

Q200:00END QUARTER 2Play 2225

END QUARTER 2

Source play 2225Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q315:0034-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to NO 4. 18-B.Lance to NO 21 for 17 yards (54-M.Harrison).Play 2245

34-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to NO 4. 18-B.Lance to NO 21 for 17 yards (54-M.Harrison).

Source play 2245Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q314:54(14:54) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 24 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 93-S.Harris). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 21 - No Play.Play 2273

(14:54) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 24 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 93-S.Harris). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 21 - No Play.

Source play 2273NYG preplay win probability: 53.8%Link to source play ↗

Q314:30(14:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NO 24 for 8 yards (2-D.Banks).Play 2306

(14:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NO 24 for 8 yards (2-D.Banks).

Source play 2306NYG preplay win probability: 56.6%Link to source play ↗

Q314:02(14:02) 43-C.Donaldson right end ran ob at NO 41 for 17 yards (8-J.Holland).Play 2336

(14:02) 43-C.Donaldson right end ran ob at NO 41 for 17 yards (8-J.Holland).

Source play 2336NYG preplay win probability: 54.8%Link to source play ↗

Q313:38(13:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41 - No Play.Play 2363

(13:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41 - No Play.

Source play 2363NYG preplay win probability: 50.6%Link to source play ↗

Q313:32(13:32) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NYG 33 for 11 yards (49-T.Edmunds).Play 2397

(13:32) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NYG 33 for 11 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

Source play 2397NYG preplay win probability: 48.1%Link to source play ↗

Q313:08(13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 31 for 2 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis).Play 2419

(13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 31 for 2 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis).

Source play 2419NYG preplay win probability: 42.7%Link to source play ↗

Q312:31(12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 2441

(12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 2441NYG preplay win probability: 44.2%Link to source play ↗

Q312:2110-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Play 2467

10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Source play 2467Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q312:2110-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24.Play 2482

10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24.

Source play 2482Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q312:14(12:14) 23-N.Harris right guard to NYG 16 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton).Play 2523

(12:14) 23-N.Harris right guard to NYG 16 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton).

Source play 2523NYG preplay win probability: 28.5%Link to source play ↗

Q311:38(11:38) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.Play 2545

(11:38) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.

Source play 2545NYG preplay win probability: 27.4%Link to source play ↗

Q311:34(11:34) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at NO 46. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (88-M.Fields). Penalty on NO-94-C.Jordan, Defensive Offside, offsetting, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Penalty on NYG-65-F.Mauigoa, Offensive Holding, offsetting.Play 2568

(11:34) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at NO 46. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (88-M.Fields). Penalty on NO-94-C.Jordan, Defensive Offside, offsetting, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Penalty on NYG-65-F.Mauigoa, Offensive Holding, offsetting.

Source play 2568NYG preplay win probability: 25.4%Link to source play ↗

Q311:23(11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-29-T.Tracy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play.Play 2611

(11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-29-T.Tracy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play.

Source play 2611NYG preplay win probability: 25.4%Link to source play ↗

Q311:23(11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-78-A.Thomas, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 11 - No Play.Play 2635

(11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-78-A.Thomas, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 11 - No Play.

Source play 2635NYG preplay win probability: 24.5%Link to source play ↗

Q311:23(11:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 29-T.Tracy to NYG 16 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford).Play 2664

(11:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 29-T.Tracy to NYG 16 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford).

Source play 2664NYG preplay win probability: 23.8%Link to source play ↗

Q310:44(10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell).Play 2689

(10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell).

Source play 2689NYG preplay win probability: 22.3%Link to source play ↗

Q310:32(10:32) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 44 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds).Play 2720

(10:32) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 44 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

Source play 2720NYG preplay win probability: 22.6%Link to source play ↗

Q309:57(9:57) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland; 93-S.Harris).Play 2749

(9:57) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland; 93-S.Harris).

Source play 2749NYG preplay win probability: 22.4%Link to source play ↗

Q309:20(9:20) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for no gain (52-A.Reese; 2-D.Banks).Play 2771

(9:20) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for no gain (52-A.Reese; 2-D.Banks).

Source play 2771NYG preplay win probability: 20.0%Link to source play ↗

Q308:36(8:36) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NYG 23 for 10 yards (2-D.Banks). Penalty on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.Play 2793

(8:36) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NYG 23 for 10 yards (2-D.Banks). Penalty on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Source play 2793NYG preplay win probability: 19.9%Link to source play ↗

Q308:12(8:12) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 15 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland).Play 2829

(8:12) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 15 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland).

Source play 2829NYG preplay win probability: 15.7%Link to source play ↗

Q307:35(7:35) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 9 for 6 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis).Play 2859

(7:35) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 9 for 6 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis).

Source play 2859NYG preplay win probability: 13.9%Link to source play ↗

Q306:55(6:55) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 1 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland).Play 2881

(6:55) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 1 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland).

Source play 2881NYG preplay win probability: 13.0%Link to source play ↗

Q306:11(6:11) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 1 for no gain (8-J.Holland).Play 2903

Source play 2903NYG preplay win probability: 11.3%Link to source play ↗

Q305:48(5:48) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Play 2953

(5:48) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 2953NYG preplay win probability: 12.1%Link to source play ↗

Q305:4310-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Play 2976

10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Source play 2976Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q305:4310-D.Carlson kicks 64 yards from NO 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 26 yards (58-C.Rumph).Play 2991

10-D.Carlson kicks 64 yards from NO 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 26 yards (58-C.Rumph).

Source play 2991Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q305:37(5:37) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 40 for 13 yards (23-J.Blackmon).Play 3026

(5:37) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 40 for 13 yards (23-J.Blackmon).

Source play 3026NYG preplay win probability: 10.7%Link to source play ↗

Q305:14(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Mooney.Play 3051

(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Mooney.

Source play 3051NYG preplay win probability: 12.8%Link to source play ↗

Q305:09(5:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 47 for 13 yards (22-M.Emerson).Play 3074

(5:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 47 for 13 yards (22-M.Emerson).

Source play 3074NYG preplay win probability: 11.5%Link to source play ↗

Q304:37(4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 37 for 10 yards (22-M.Emerson).Play 3099

(4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 37 for 10 yards (22-M.Emerson).

Source play 3099NYG preplay win probability: 12.3%Link to source play ↗

Q304:23(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 26. 22-M.Emerson pushed ob at NO 38 for 12 yards (1-M.Nabers).Play 3129

(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 26. 22-M.Emerson pushed ob at NO 38 for 12 yards (1-M.Nabers).

Source play 3129NYG preplay win probability: 11.8%Link to source play ↗

Q304:16(4:16) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 42 for 4 yards (93-S.Harris).Play 3161

(4:16) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 42 for 4 yards (93-S.Harris).

Source play 3161NYG preplay win probability: 5.0%Link to source play ↗

Q303:35(3:35) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-N.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43.Play 3183

(3:35) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-N.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43.

Source play 3183NYG preplay win probability: 5.2%Link to source play ↗

Q303:04(3:04) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NYG 36 for 2 yards (24-A.Washington).Play 3216

(3:04) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NYG 36 for 2 yards (24-A.Washington).

Source play 3216NYG preplay win probability: 3.9%Link to source play ↗

Q302:32(2:32) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 36 for no gain (5-K.Thibodeaux).Play 3246

(2:32) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 36 for no gain (5-K.Thibodeaux).

Source play 3246NYG preplay win probability: 4.5%Link to source play ↗

Q301:52(1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NYG 32 for 4 yards (22-A.Phillips).Play 3268

(1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NYG 32 for 4 yards (22-A.Phillips).

Source play 3268NYG preplay win probability: 5.0%Link to source play ↗

Q301:17(1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Play 3298

(1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Source play 3298NYG preplay win probability: 5.7%Link to source play ↗

Q301:1210-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to NYG 6. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at NYG 30 for 24 yards (43-C.Donaldson; 98-T.Wilson).Play 3318

10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to NYG 6. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at NYG 30 for 24 yards (43-C.Donaldson; 98-T.Wilson).

Source play 3318Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q301:08(1:08) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NYG 34 for 4 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 52-C.Miller).Play 3346

(1:08) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NYG 34 for 4 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 52-C.Miller).

Source play 3346NYG preplay win probability: 5.8%Link to source play ↗

Q300:44(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Tracy.Play 3368

(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Tracy.

Source play 3368NYG preplay win probability: 4.1%Link to source play ↗

Q300:39(:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (sack split by 96-C.Granderson and 99-C.Young).Play 3391

(:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (sack split by 96-C.Granderson and 99-C.Young).

Source play 3391NYG preplay win probability: 3.9%Link to source play ↗

Q300:00END QUARTER 3Play 3411

END QUARTER 3

Source play 3411Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q415:00(15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden).Play 3435

(15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden).

Source play 3435NYG preplay win probability: 2.0%Link to source play ↗

Q414:50(14:50) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 26 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader).Play 3466

(14:50) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 26 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader).

Source play 3466NYG preplay win probability: 2.0%Link to source play ↗

Q414:06(14:06) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 29 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader).Play 3488

(14:06) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 29 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader).

Source play 3488NYG preplay win probability: 2.3%Link to source play ↗

Q413:24(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 19-B.Brown to NO 34 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 49-T.Edmunds).Play 3510

(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 19-B.Brown to NO 34 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 49-T.Edmunds).

Source play 3510NYG preplay win probability: 2.4%Link to source play ↗

Q412:48(12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.Play 3535

(12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

Source play 3535NYG preplay win probability: 3.2%Link to source play ↗

Q412:41(12:41) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NYG 25 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson).Play 3555

(12:41) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NYG 25 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson).

Source play 3555NYG preplay win probability: 2.7%Link to source play ↗

Q412:28(12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Blackmon at NYG 42. 23-J.Blackmon to NYG 21 for 21 yards (88-M.Fields).Play 3597

(12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Blackmon at NYG 42. 23-J.Blackmon to NYG 21 for 21 yards (88-M.Fields).

Source play 3597NYG preplay win probability: 3.0%Link to source play ↗

Q412:19(12:19) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 18 for 3 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux; 2-D.Banks).Play 3628

(12:19) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 18 for 3 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux; 2-D.Banks).

Source play 3628NYG preplay win probability: 1.2%Link to source play ↗

Q411:36(11:36) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 3655

(11:36) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 3655NYG preplay win probability: 1.1%Link to source play ↗

Q411:3110-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Play 3681

10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Source play 3681Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q411:3110-D.Carlson kicks 58 yards from NO 35 to NYG 7. 29-T.Tracy to NYG 28 for 21 yards (4-O.Delp; 43-C.Donaldson). ** Injury Update: NYG-29-T.Tracy has returned to the game.Play 3696

10-D.Carlson kicks 58 yards from NO 35 to NYG 7. 29-T.Tracy to NYG 28 for 21 yards (4-O.Delp; 43-C.Donaldson). ** Injury Update: NYG-29-T.Tracy has returned to the game.

Source play 3696Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q411:25(11:25) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NYG 37 for 9 yards (28-D.Stutsman).Play 3726

(11:25) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NYG 37 for 9 yards (28-D.Stutsman).

Source play 3726NYG preplay win probability: 0.2%Link to source play ↗

Q411:03(11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to NO 44 for 19 yards (98-T.Wilson; 23-J.Blackmon).Play 3748

(11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to NO 44 for 19 yards (98-T.Wilson; 23-J.Blackmon).

Source play 3748NYG preplay win probability: 0.2%Link to source play ↗

Q410:35(10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Jones.Play 3773

(10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Jones.

Source play 3773NYG preplay win probability: 0.1%Link to source play ↗

Q410:31(10:31) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields.Play 3796

(10:31) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields.

Source play 3796NYG preplay win probability: 0.1%Link to source play ↗

Q410:27(10:27) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 37. 22-M.Emerson to NO 44 for 7 yards (88-M.Fields).Play 3819

(10:27) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 37. 22-M.Emerson to NO 44 for 7 yards (88-M.Fields).

Source play 3819NYG preplay win probability: 0.1%Link to source play ↗

Q410:22(10:22) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to NYG 49 for 7 yards (25-J.Pinnock).Play 3846

(10:22) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to NYG 49 for 7 yards (25-J.Pinnock).

Source play 3846NYG preplay win probability: 0.0%Link to source play ↗

Q409:40(9:40) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (25-J.Pinnock; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (25-J.Pinnock), RECOVERED by NYG-52-A.Reese at NYG 48.Play 3868

(9:40) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (25-J.Pinnock; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (25-J.Pinnock), RECOVERED by NYG-52-A.Reese at NYG 48.

Source play 3868NYG preplay win probability: 0.0%Link to source play ↗

Q409:31(9:31) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NO 47 for 5 yards (91-V.Broughton; 96-C.Granderson).Play 3909

(9:31) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NO 47 for 5 yards (91-V.Broughton; 96-C.Granderson).

Source play 3909NYG preplay win probability: 0.1%Link to source play ↗

Q409:08(9:08) (No Huddle) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NO 47 for no gain (96-C.Granderson; 91-V.Broughton).Play 3931

(9:08) (No Huddle) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NO 47 for no gain (96-C.Granderson; 91-V.Broughton).

Source play 3931NYG preplay win probability: 0.0%Link to source play ↗

Q408:29(8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.Play 3953

(8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.

Source play 3953NYG preplay win probability: 0.0%Link to source play ↗

Q408:24(8:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 13 for 27 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 23-J.Blackmon).Play 3990

(8:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 13 for 27 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 23-J.Blackmon).

Source play 3990NYG preplay win probability: 0.0%Link to source play ↗

Q407:43(7:43) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NO 5 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner).Play 4015

(7:43) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NO 5 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner).

Source play 4015NYG preplay win probability: 0.1%Link to source play ↗

Q407:08(7:08) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers (22-M.Emerson). NO-22-M.Emerson was injured during the play.Play 4040

(7:08) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers (22-M.Emerson). NO-22-M.Emerson was injured during the play.

Source play 4040NYG preplay win probability: 0.2%Link to source play ↗

Q407:04(7:04) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 4066

(7:04) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 4066NYG preplay win probability: 0.1%Link to source play ↗

Q407:00TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 9-I.Likely is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.Play 4101

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 9-I.Likely is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Source play 4101Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q407:0034-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) ran ob at NYG 49 for no gain.Play 4114

34-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) ran ob at NYG 49 for no gain.

Source play 4114Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q406:59(6:59) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NYG 49 for no gain (52-A.Reese).Play 4142

(6:59) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NYG 49 for no gain (52-A.Reese).

Source play 4142NYG preplay win probability: 0.5%Link to source play ↗

Q406:13(6:13) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.Play 4164

(6:13) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.

Source play 4164NYG preplay win probability: 0.4%Link to source play ↗

Q406:08(6:08) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele [3-A.Carter].Play 4199

(6:08) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele [3-A.Carter].

Source play 4199NYG preplay win probability: 0.4%Link to source play ↗

Q406:03(6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles).Play 4222

(6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles).

Source play 4222NYG preplay win probability: 0.5%Link to source play ↗

Q405:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 89-C.Jones to NO 24 for 49 yards (29-Q.Riley). ** Injury Update: NO-22-M.Emerson has returned to the game.Play 4253

(5:54) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 89-C.Jones to NO 24 for 49 yards (29-Q.Riley). ** Injury Update: NO-22-M.Emerson has returned to the game.

Source play 4253NYG preplay win probability: 1.6%Link to source play ↗

Q405:14(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 16. 22-M.Emerson ran ob at NO 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson).Play 4278

Source play 4278NYG preplay win probability: 2.3%Link to source play ↗

Q405:11(5:11) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 9-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 4355

(5:11) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 9-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 4355NYG preplay win probability: 2.5%Link to source play ↗

Q405:06TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 1-M.Nabers is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.Play 4381

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 1-M.Nabers is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Source play 4381Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q405:0634-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) to NYG 49 for no gain.Play 4394

34-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) to NYG 49 for no gain.

Source play 4394Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q405:05(5:05) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 48-T.Ford).Play 4417

(5:05) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 48-T.Ford).

Source play 4417NYG preplay win probability: 3.2%Link to source play ↗

Q405:01Timeout #1 by NYG at 05:01.Play 4451

Timeout #1 by NYG at 05:01.

Source play 4451Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q405:01(5:01) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 44 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 5-K.Thibodeaux).Play 4439

(5:01) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 44 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 5-K.Thibodeaux).

Source play 4439NYG preplay win probability: 4.1%Link to source play ↗

Q404:16(4:16) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave.Play 4468

(4:16) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave.

Source play 4468NYG preplay win probability: 2.7%Link to source play ↗

Q404:13(4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16.Play 4491

(4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

Source play 4491NYG preplay win probability: 4.4%Link to source play ↗

Q403:59(3:59) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NYG 19 for 11 yards (22-M.Emerson).Play 4544

(3:59) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NYG 19 for 11 yards (22-M.Emerson).

Source play 4544NYG preplay win probability: 5.1%Link to source play ↗

Q403:34(3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-M.Nabers ran ob at NYG 32 for 13 yards (29-Q.Riley).Play 4569

(3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-M.Nabers ran ob at NYG 32 for 13 yards (29-Q.Riley).

Source play 4569NYG preplay win probability: 5.4%Link to source play ↗

Q403:29(3:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-86-T.Fidone, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32 - No Play.Play 4599

(3:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-86-T.Fidone, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32 - No Play.

Source play 4599NYG preplay win probability: 6.2%Link to source play ↗

Q403:29(3:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 27 for 46 yards (23-J.Blackmon).Play 4623

(3:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 27 for 46 yards (23-J.Blackmon).

Source play 4623NYG preplay win probability: 5.4%Link to source play ↗

Q402:56(2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.Play 4648

(2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.

Source play 4648NYG preplay win probability: 6.9%Link to source play ↗

Q402:56(2:56) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy sacked at NO 40 for -8 yards (50-C.Wooden).Play 4672

(2:56) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy sacked at NO 40 for -8 yards (50-C.Wooden).

Source play 4672NYG preplay win probability: 6.7%Link to source play ↗

Q402:28(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 89-C.Jones to NO 23 for 17 yards (22-M.Emerson).Play 4692

(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 89-C.Jones to NO 23 for 17 yards (22-M.Emerson).

Source play 4692NYG preplay win probability: 5.3%Link to source play ↗

Q402:09(2:09) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.Play 4717

(2:09) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Source play 4717NYG preplay win probability: 5.7%Link to source play ↗

Q402:08(2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.Play 4740

(2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Source play 4740NYG preplay win probability: 3.7%Link to source play ↗

Q402:0434-D.Zvada kicks 70 yards from NYG 35 to NO -5. 18-B.Lance to NO 25 for 30 yards (51-J.Kelly).Play 4760

34-D.Zvada kicks 70 yards from NYG 35 to NO -5. 18-B.Lance to NO 25 for 30 yards (51-J.Kelly).

Source play 4760Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q401:59(1:59) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 26 for 1 yard (93-S.Harris; 5-K.Thibodeaux).Play 4786

(1:59) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 26 for 1 yard (93-S.Harris; 5-K.Thibodeaux).

Source play 4786NYG preplay win probability: 2.5%Link to source play ↗

Q401:55Timeout #2 by NYG at 01:55.Play 4827

Timeout #2 by NYG at 01:55.

Source play 4827Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q401:55(1:55) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 31 for 5 yards (98-D.Reader).Play 4815

(1:55) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 31 for 5 yards (98-D.Reader).

Source play 4815NYG preplay win probability: 2.1%Link to source play ↗

Q401:51Timeout #3 by NYG at 01:51.Play 4856

Timeout #3 by NYG at 01:51.

Source play 4856Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q401:51(1:51) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 32 for 1 yard (91-D.Alexander).Play 4844

(1:51) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 32 for 1 yard (91-D.Alexander).

Source play 4844NYG preplay win probability: 2.2%Link to source play ↗

Q401:06Timeout #1 by NO at 01:06.Play 4885

Timeout #1 by NO at 01:06.

Source play 4885Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q401:06(1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.Play 4873

Source play 4873NYG preplay win probability: 2.0%Link to source play ↗

Q400:57(:57) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy scrambles up the middle to NO 43 for 28 yards (20-P.Werner).Play 4917

(:57) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy scrambles up the middle to NO 43 for 28 yards (20-P.Werner).

Source play 4917NYG preplay win probability: 6.0%Link to source play ↗

Q400:41(:41) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.Play 4939

(:41) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Source play 4939NYG preplay win probability: 12.3%Link to source play ↗

Q400:40(:40) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to NO 23 for 20 yards (21-J.Reid).Play 4962

(:40) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to NO 23 for 20 yards (21-J.Reid).

Source play 4962NYG preplay win probability: 10.1%Link to source play ↗

Q400:25(:25) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.Play 4987

(:25) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Source play 4987NYG preplay win probability: 16.4%Link to source play ↗

Q400:24(:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 14 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid).Play 5010

(:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 14 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid).

Source play 5010NYG preplay win probability: 14.1%Link to source play ↗

Q400:13(:13) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.Play 5035

(:13) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Source play 5035NYG preplay win probability: 16.2%Link to source play ↗

Q400:12Timeout #2 by NO at 00:12.Play 5070

Timeout #2 by NO at 00:12.

Source play 5070Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q400:12(:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.Play 5058

(:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.

Source play 5058NYG preplay win probability: 10.4%Link to source play ↗

Q400:06(:06) 6-T.Shough kneels to NO 13 for -1 yards.Play 5091

(:06) 6-T.Shough kneels to NO 13 for -1 yards.

Source play 5091NYG preplay win probability: 1.3%Link to source play ↗

Q400:00END GAMEPlay 5113

END GAME

Source play 5113Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 44Optional calculations for individual plays.

Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.

Q313:38Penalty · NO(13:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2363Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

-4.36 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 44
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1712
Half seconds remaining: 1712
Quarter seconds remaining: 812
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 59
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1712
Half seconds remaining: 1712
Quarter seconds remaining: 812
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

-1.52 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 44
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1712
Half seconds remaining: 1712
Quarter seconds remaining: 812
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 59
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1712
Half seconds remaining: 1712
Quarter seconds remaining: 812
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q112:08Fourth down · NO(12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

Not reviewedPlay 293Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

2.32 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 6
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -1.239061201111191
Yardline 100: 44
Elapsed share: 0.04777777777777778
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 0
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 3428
Half seconds remaining: 1628
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 728
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.5953860336314899

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59539/0.54642/0.57218
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q204:54Penalty · NYG(4:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1564Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

-1.79 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 49
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 7
Game seconds remaining: 2094
Half seconds remaining: 294
Quarter seconds remaining: 294
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 2
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 44
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 7
Game seconds remaining: 2094
Half seconds remaining: 294
Quarter seconds remaining: 294
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

-0.74 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 49
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 7
Game seconds remaining: 2094
Half seconds remaining: 294
Quarter seconds remaining: 294
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 2
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 44
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 7
Game seconds remaining: 2094
Half seconds remaining: 294
Quarter seconds remaining: 294
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q214:20Penalty · NO(14:20) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1011Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

1.05 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 12
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 61
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 2660
Half seconds remaining: 860
Quarter seconds remaining: 860
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 7
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 56
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 2660
Half seconds remaining: 860
Quarter seconds remaining: 860
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

0.33 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 12
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 61
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 2660
Half seconds remaining: 860
Quarter seconds remaining: 860
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 2
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 7
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 56
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 2660
Half seconds remaining: 860
Quarter seconds remaining: 860
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q311:23Penalty · NYG(11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-29-T.Tracy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2611Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

-0.86 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 13
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 89
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 8
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 84
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

-0.78 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 13
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 89
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 8
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 84
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q403:29Penalty · NYG(3:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-86-T.Fidone, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 4599Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

-0.77 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 73
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 209
Half seconds remaining: 209
Quarter seconds remaining: 209
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 68
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 209
Half seconds remaining: 209
Quarter seconds remaining: 209
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

-0.61 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 73
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 209
Half seconds remaining: 209
Quarter seconds remaining: 209
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 68
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 209
Half seconds remaining: 209
Quarter seconds remaining: 209
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q311:23Penalty · NYG(11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-78-A.Thomas, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 11 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2635Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

-0.67 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 18
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 94
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 13
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 89
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

-0.37 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 18
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 94
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 13
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 89
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Game seconds remaining: 1583
Half seconds remaining: 1583
Quarter seconds remaining: 683
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q412:48Fourth down · NO(12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

Not reviewedPlay 3535Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0.33 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 1
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.06449280843306253
Yardline 100: 66
Elapsed share: 0.7866666666666666
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 17
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 768
Half seconds remaining: 768
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 768
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.9829375762955029

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98294/ NA/0.97963
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q402:56Penalty · NYG(2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 4648Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

-0.15 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 32
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 176
Half seconds remaining: 176
Quarter seconds remaining: 176
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 27
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 176
Half seconds remaining: 176
Quarter seconds remaining: 176
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

-0.57 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 32
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 176
Half seconds remaining: 176
Quarter seconds remaining: 176
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 27
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Game seconds remaining: 176
Half seconds remaining: 176
Quarter seconds remaining: 176
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q408:29Penalty · NYG(8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3953Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

0.02 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 40
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -24
Game seconds remaining: 504
Half seconds remaining: 504
Quarter seconds remaining: 504
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 5
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 47
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -24
Game seconds remaining: 504
Half seconds remaining: 504
Quarter seconds remaining: 504
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence NYG

2.96 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 40
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -24
Game seconds remaining: 504
Half seconds remaining: 504
Quarter seconds remaining: 504
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 5
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 47
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -24
Game seconds remaining: 504
Half seconds remaining: 504
Quarter seconds remaining: 504
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q114:18Fourth down · NYG(14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese).

Not reviewedPlay 149Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 12
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -1.43160821960047
Yardline 100: 62
Elapsed share: 0.01166666666666667
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -1.5
Original posteam: NYG
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 0
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 3558
Half seconds remaining: 1758
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 858
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.4088541381489128

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36747/ NA/0.40885
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q108:09Fourth down · NYG(8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).

Not reviewedPlay 491Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 1
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.9500871530350627
Yardline 100: 48
Elapsed share: 0.1141666666666667
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -1.5
Original posteam: NYG
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 0
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 3189
Half seconds remaining: 1389
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 489
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.4590777344535187

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45908/0.37086/0.43393
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Show the remaining 32 recorded events

Q102:07Fourth down · NO(2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

Not reviewedPlay 797Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 9
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.63544878557572
Yardline 100: 67
Elapsed share: 0.2147222222222222
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2827
Half seconds remaining: 1027
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 127
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.3689327694726672

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35532/ NA/0.36893
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q214:20Fourth down · NO(14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson).

Not reviewedPlay 1039Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 12
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.5278308870084701
Yardline 100: 61
Elapsed share: 0.2611111111111111
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2660
Half seconds remaining: 860
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 860
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.3799992728925243

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35087/ NA/0.38000
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q211:21Fourth down · NYG(11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford).

Not reviewedPlay 1162Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 8
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.4326318146767781
Yardline 100: 67
Elapsed share: 0.3108333333333334
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -1.5
Original posteam: NYG
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2481
Half seconds remaining: 681
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 681
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.621230198408104

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58366/ NA/0.62123
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q206:56Kick · NO(6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Not reviewedPlay 1436Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.3222870504044477
Yardline 100: 37
Elapsed share: 0.3844444444444444
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2216
Half seconds remaining: 416
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 416
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.3680796578540322

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36459/0.36808/0.35011
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NO

-0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q202:30Kick · NYG(2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Not reviewedPlay 1740Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 12
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.2398196191195409
Yardline 100: 16
Elapsed share: 0.4583333333333333
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -1.5
Original posteam: NYG
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 1950
Half seconds remaining: 150
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 150
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.679828497935707

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.66233/0.67983/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NYG

0.5 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q310:44Fourth down · NYG(10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell).

Not reviewedPlay 2689Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 8
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.1527459284410215
Yardline 100: 84
Elapsed share: 0.5711111111111111
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -1.5
Original posteam: NYG
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 1544
Half seconds remaining: 1544
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 644
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.1645498880922381

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16421/ NA/0.16455
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q415:00Fourth down · NYG(15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden).

Not reviewedPlay 3435Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 15
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.07468060255179591
Yardline 100: 75
Elapsed share: 0.75
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -1.5
Original posteam: NYG
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -17
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 900
Half seconds remaining: 900
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 900
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.01351991971681236

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01270/ NA/0.01352
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q406:03Fourth down · NO(6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles).

Not reviewedPlay 4222Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.04112243023407076
Yardline 100: 49
Elapsed share: 0.8991666666666667
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 16
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 363
Half seconds remaining: 363
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 363
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.992855133590373

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99085/0.98785/0.99286
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q115:00Penalty · NYG10-D.Carlson kicks 39 yards from NO 35 to NYG 26, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NYG 40.

Not reviewedPlay 40Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q105:14Kick · NYG34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Not reviewedPlay 608Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NYG

0.04 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q104:23Penalty · NO(4:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 39 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 675Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q103:59Penalty · NO(3:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 45 for 18 yards (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 711Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q100:32Fourth down · NYG(:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes).

Not reviewedPlay 898Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q203:39Penalty · NYG(3:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NO 35 for -6 yards (91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on NO-91-V.Broughton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1640Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q201:23Kick · NO(1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Not reviewedPlay 1951Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0.74 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.2226147300342035
Yardline 100: 40
Elapsed share: 0.4769444444444444
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -10
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 1883
Half seconds remaining: 83
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 83
Defteam timeouts remaining: 2
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.2794017270415653

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27940/0.27202/0.27420
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NO

-0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q201:18Fumble · NYG10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28.

Not reviewedPlay 1971Link to event

This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.

Q200:05Fourth down · NO(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Not reviewedPlay 2138Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0.14 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 2
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.2041338574525529
Yardline 100: 2
Elapsed share: 0.4986111111111111
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 1805
Half seconds remaining: 5
Away timeouts remaining: 2
Home timeouts remaining: 0
Quarter seconds remaining: 5
Defteam timeouts remaining: 0
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.4810244424884433

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47967/0.48102/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q200:01Kick · NO10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Not reviewedPlay 2171Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NO

0.16 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Q314:54Penalty · NO(14:54) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 24 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 93-S.Harris). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 21 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2273Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q312:21Kick · NO10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Not reviewedPlay 2467Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NO

0.16 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Q312:21Penalty · NYG10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24.

Not reviewedPlay 2482Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q311:34Fourth down · NYG(11:34) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at NO 46. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (88-M.Fields). Penalty on NO-94-C.Jordan, Defensive Offside, offsetting, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Penalty on NYG-65-F.Mauigoa, Offensive Holding, offsetting.

Not reviewedPlay 2568Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYG

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q308:36Fourth down · NO(8:36) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NYG 23 for 10 yards (2-D.Banks). Penalty on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Not reviewedPlay 2793Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q305:43Kick · NO10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Not reviewedPlay 2976Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NO

0.16 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Q303:35Penalty · NO(3:35) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-N.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43.

Not reviewedPlay 3183Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q301:17Kick · NO(1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Not reviewedPlay 3298Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NO

0.16 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NO
Ydstogo: 4
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.0813512291248743
Yardline 100: 32
Elapsed share: 0.7286111111111111
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 1.5
Original posteam: NO
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 14
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 977
Half seconds remaining: 977
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 77
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.9622251054721592

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96223/0.96067/0.95645
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NO

-0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q411:31Kick · NO10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

Not reviewedPlay 3681Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NO

0.16 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Q409:40Fumble · NO(9:40) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (25-J.Pinnock; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (25-J.Pinnock), RECOVERED by NYG-52-A.Reese at NYG 48.

Not reviewedPlay 3868Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation NYG

0.37 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation NO

-0.37 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q404:13Penalty · NO(4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

Not reviewedPlay 4491Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q402:08Kick · NYG(2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Not reviewedPlay 4740Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

1.06 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYG
Ydstogo: 6
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NO
Home team: NYG
Away total: 24
Home total: 22.5
Total line: 46.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: -1.5
Spread time: -0.03167230403709866
Yardline 100: 23
Elapsed share: 0.9644444444444444
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -1.5
Original posteam: NYG
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 128
Half seconds remaining: 128
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 128
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.03020017425646689

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03020/0.01957/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NYG

0.5 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q401:06Penalty · NO(1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

Not reviewedPlay 4873Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost NO

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q400:12Fourth down · NYG(:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.

Not reviewedPlay 5058Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYG

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

ABOUT THIS REPORTData & report historySources, calculation notes and earlier versions.

Automatic analysis

Complete

Updates automatically when source data changes.

Source data

Updated source data

This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.

Data limitations and calculation notes (3)

Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation.
Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent.
Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified.

SHA-256 061e14894fa703e6b128029ca1589160b279d32e41200c35d73152ee4787eb98

Model versions and technical record

nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.

nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.

fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1

Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons

Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.

game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5

Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only

Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.

spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1

Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons

Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.

game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1

Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.

Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.

Analysis input hash: f101b13d3277c38457d9d2462d49e4e663be477559cefcb749aac317037a2a04

Report updates

Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.

Version 11 · Latest ↗
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 20, 2026, 12:42 AM UTC
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Updated source data
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Oct 19, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC
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Oct 19, 2026, 6:53 PM UTC
Version 8 ↗
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 1:35 PM UTC
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Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 7:29 AM UTC
Version 6 ↗
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 2:45 AM UTC
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Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 1:40 AM UTC
Version 4 ↗
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 10:06 PM UTC
Version 3 ↗
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:39 PM UTC
Version 2 ↗
Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC
Version 1 ↗
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 18, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC

Opening the record…

Game statistic

NOWIN

NYGLOSS

Points scored

Total offensive yards

319

461

Penalties

Penalty yards

Turnover margin

-3

Non-offensive touchdowns

Comparison

NYG

Actual

7 / 52 yd

10 / 73 yd

Expected for this matchup

6.5 / 54.1 yd

6.3 / 51.9 yd

League average

6 / 49.5 yd

Team’s usual penalties

6.1 / 52 yd · 85 games

6.2 / 49.6 yd · 85 games

Opponent usually draws

6.6 / 52.6 yd · 85 games

6 / 49.5 yd · 85 games

Team history with this referee

NYG

Games

Wins–losses–ties

3–3–0

1–2–0

Team penalties per game

7.3 / 59.2 yd

6.7 / 61.7 yd

Period

Clock

Source play

NYG win chance

Estimate source