Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: PIT by 8.5; actual result: PIT by 7.
The 1.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 692 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Opening the record…
Opening the record…
FINAL SCORE
GAME RATING
The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
| Game statistic | PITWIN | TBLOSS |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 26 | 19 |
| Total offensive yards | 300 | 224 |
| Penalties | 5 | 4 |
| Penalty yards | 62 | 38 |
| Turnover margin | +1 | -1 |
| Non-offensive touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
Pittsburgh Steelers covered the spread.
5,224 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (71.8%).
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
692 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
| Comparison | PIT | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5 / 62 yd | 4 / 38 yd |
| Expected for this matchup | 5.8 / 47.8 yd | 6 / 49.3 yd |
| League average | 6 / 49.5 yd | 6 / 49.5 yd |
| Team’s usual penalties | 5.8 / 46.1 yd · 85 games | 5.9 / 47 yd · 85 games |
| Opponent usually draws | 5.8 / 48.8 yd · 85 games | 6.4 / 51.7 yd · 85 games |
The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 632 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.8 accepted penalties for 98.5 yards across both teams.
| Team history with this referee | PIT | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 5 |
| Wins–losses–ties | 3–3–1 | 1–4–0 |
| Team penalties per game | 5.9 / 48.3 yd | 5.6 / 53 yd |
Home teams: 5.9 / 48.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.9 / 50.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Land Clark; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7Allowed 5 sacks, including 1 in overtime.
Opponent PIT was charged 5 penalties for 62 yards.
Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opponent TB was charged 4 penalties for 38 yards.
14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385HOW THE GAME MOVED
152 model estimates across 208 recorded game entries, plus 1 recorded final result.
55 entries have no estimate: 27 overtime entries and 28 other recorded states.
Overtime is shaded. No overtime forecast meets this model’s data requirements.
The overtime model requires at least 20 comparable prior games with matching possession rules. Sparse or ambiguous states stay unrated. It estimates wins, losses and ties separately; see coverage and limits.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The final circle shows the recorded outcome. A tied game has 0% win and 100% tie at that point.
| Period | Clock | Source play | TB win chance | Tie chance | Estimate source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 1 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 40 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 14:55 | Play 63 ↗ | 55.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:12 | Play 85 ↗ | 55.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:30 | Play 107 ↗ | 50.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:57 | Play 127 ↗ | 45.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:48 | Play 147 ↗ | 45.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:44 | Play 170 ↗ | 46.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:02 | Play 192 ↗ | 50.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:56 | Play 215 ↗ | 52.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:50 | Play 235 ↗ | 53.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:45 | Play 265 ↗ | 52.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:06 | Play 287 ↗ | 51.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:02 | Play 310 ↗ | 46.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:51 | Play 352 ↗ | 47.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:45 | Play 396 ↗ | 61.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:06 | Play 418 ↗ | 62.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:20 | Play 440 ↗ | 64.7% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:40 | Play 462 ↗ | 61.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:35 | Play 485 ↗ | 57.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:55 | Play 510 ↗ | 57.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:51 | Play 530 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 07:43 | Play 582 ↗ | 60.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:06 | Play 605 ↗ | 60.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:24 | Play 627 ↗ | 56.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:38 | Play 649 ↗ | 53.7% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:02 | Play 671 ↗ | 56.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:21 | Play 696 ↗ | 56.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:46 | Play 733 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 03:46 | Play 721 ↗ | 56.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:41 | Play 753 ↗ | 67.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:00 | Play 785 ↗ | 64.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:33 | Play 815 ↗ | 61.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:50 | Play 840 ↗ | 68.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:07 | Play 865 ↗ | 64.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:43 | Play 890 ↗ | 66.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:01 | Play 915 ↗ | 69.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:00 | Play 940 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 15:00 | Play 960 ↗ | 70.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:55 | Play 994 ↗ | 75.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:52 | Play 1020 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 14:52 | Play 1035 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 14:45 | Play 1065 ↗ | 78.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:01 | Play 1094 ↗ | 79.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:18 | Play 1116 ↗ | 80.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:15 | Play 1139 ↗ | 81.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:02 | Play 1165 ↗ | 76.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:22 | Play 1206 ↗ | 80.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:03 | Play 1233 ↗ | 80.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:44 | Play 1258 ↗ | 81.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:36 | Play 1281 ↗ | 77.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:30 | Play 1301 ↗ | 77.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:49 | Play 1330 ↗ | 79.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:10 | Play 1360 ↗ | 76.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:27 | Play 1382 ↗ | 74.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:42 | Play 1404 ↗ | 75.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:58 | Play 1429 ↗ | 75.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:15 | Play 1454 ↗ | 78.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:11 | Play 1475 ↗ | 85.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:31 | Play 1504 ↗ | 84.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:48 | Play 1526 ↗ | 86.7% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:05 | Play 1548 ↗ | 87.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:23 | Play 1568 ↗ | 85.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:17 | Play 1615 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 04:17 | Play 1603 ↗ | 84.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:12 | Play 1641 ↗ | 82.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:08 | Play 1661 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 04:08 | Play 1678 ↗ | 86.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:26 | Play 1698 ↗ | 88.7% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:43 | Play 1732 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 02:43 | Play 1720 ↗ | 90.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:00 | Play 1747 ↗ | 91.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:52 | Play 1773 ↗ | 91.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:52 | Play 1797 ↗ | 90.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:47 | Play 1827 ↗ | 89.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:43 | Play 1861 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:43 | Play 1849 ↗ | 90.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:40 | Play 1879 ↗ | 88.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:28 | Play 1905 ↗ | 87.7% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:08 | Play 1939 ↗ | 87.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:47 | Play 1964 ↗ | 87.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:45 | Play 1999 ↗ | 88.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:29 | Play 2024 ↗ | 88.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:16 | Play 2049 ↗ | 86.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:15 | Play 2084 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:15 | Play 2072 ↗ | 87.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:04 | Play 2104 ↗ | 85.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:03 | Play 2127 ↗ | 86.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:00 | Play 2147 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 15:00 | Play 2165 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 14:55 | Play 2188 ↗ | 81.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:25 | Play 2210 ↗ | 83.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:21 | Play 2233 ↗ | 84.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:18 | Play 2256 ↗ | 86.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:04 | Play 2276 ↗ | 84.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:25 | Play 2310 ↗ | 84.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:57 | Play 2335 ↗ | 83.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:16 | Play 2367 ↗ | 86.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:30 | Play 2392 ↗ | 89.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:02 | Play 2414 ↗ | 87.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:20 | Play 2439 ↗ | 87.7% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:34 | Play 2464 ↗ | 89.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:04 | Play 2494 ↗ | 90.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:39 | Play 2516 ↗ | 89.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:56 | Play 2541 ↗ | 90.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:14 | Play 2563 ↗ | 92.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:35 | Play 2585 ↗ | 92.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:57 | Play 2607 ↗ | 92.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:17 | Play 2629 ↗ | 90.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:12 | Play 2652 ↗ | 90.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:05 | Play 2675 ↗ | 89.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:02 | Play 2705 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 04:55 | Play 2728 ↗ | 90.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:10 | Play 2753 ↗ | 91.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:30 | Play 2775 ↗ | 92.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:26 | Play 2798 ↗ | 93.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:14 | Play 2829 ↗ | 95.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:42 | Play 2858 ↗ | 95.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:38 | Play 2901 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 02:38 | Play 2884 ↗ | 94.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:23 | Play 2929 ↗ | 93.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:14 | Play 2951 ↗ | 91.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:09 | Play 2981 ↗ | 92.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:40 | Play 3006 ↗ | 91.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:04 | Play 3036 ↗ | 90.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:18 | Play 3056 ↗ | 92.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:00 | Play 3081 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 15:00 | Play 3101 ↗ | 93.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:35 | Play 3126 ↗ | 90.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:33 | Play 3160 ↗ | 86.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:53 | Play 3185 ↗ | 84.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:48 | Play 3211 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 13:48 | Play 3226 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 13:43 | Play 3256 ↗ | 80.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:18 | Play 3278 ↗ | 81.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:14 | Play 3301 ↗ | 80.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:09 | Play 3333 ↗ | 70.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:30 | Play 3363 ↗ | 64.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:44 | Play 3388 ↗ | 68.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:00 | Play 3413 ↗ | 73.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:12 | Play 3438 ↗ | 64.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:09 | Play 3461 ↗ | 66.3% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:23 | Play 3481 ↗ | 72.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:51 | Play 3522 ↗ | 72.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:11 | Play 3547 ↗ | 77.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:08 | Play 3567 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 08:01 | Play 3597 ↗ | 77.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:19 | Play 3619 ↗ | 74.7% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:15 | Play 3654 ↗ | 71.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:10 | Play 3677 ↗ | 65.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:03 | Play 3697 ↗ | 66.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:19 | Play 3719 ↗ | 69.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:37 | Play 3741 ↗ | 66.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:02 | Play 3776 ↗ | 61.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:18 | Play 3801 ↗ | 61.1% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:38 | Play 3823 ↗ | 67.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:33 | Play 3857 ↗ | 52.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:29 | Play 3880 ↗ | 54.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:47 | Play 3905 ↗ | 57.4% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:00 | Play 3925 ↗ | 72.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:55 | Play 3952 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:49 | Play 3985 ↗ | 66.8% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:46 | Play 4008 ↗ | 64.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:38 | Play 4035 ↗ | 19.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:33 | Play 4058 ↗ | 19.9% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:26 | Play 4097 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:26 | Play 4085 ↗ | 18.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:23 | Play 4115 ↗ | 23.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:21 | Play 4135 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:21 | Play 4157 ↗ | 35.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:00 | Play 4182 ↗ | 45.6% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:51 | Play 4205 ↗ | 39.2% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:40 | Play 4237 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:40 | Play 4244 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:40 | Play 4225 ↗ | 24.5% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:13 | Play 4276 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:13 | Play 4264 ↗ | 22.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:08 | Play 4291 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:03 | Play 4327 ↗ | 44.0% | — | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:00 | Play 4349 ↗ | No estimate | — | State outside model coverage |
| OT | 10:00 | Play 4369 ↗ | No estimate | — | Non scrimmage overtime entry |
| OT | 09:55 | Play 4392 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 09:48 | Play 4415 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 09:11 | Play 4437 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 08:44 | Play 4462 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 08:18 | Play 4514 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 07:39 | Play 4539 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 06:52 | Play 4564 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 06:11 | Play 4586 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 05:27 | Play 4611 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 04:47 | Play 4636 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 04:02 | Play 4658 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 03:20 | Play 4683 ↗ | No estimate | — | Insufficient current rule opening games |
| OT | 03:15 | Play 4714 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported overtime try |
| OT | 03:15 | Play 4729 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 03:07 | Play 4752 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 02:26 | Play 4774 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 02:22 | Play 4797 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 02:18 | Play 4832 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 02:18 | Play 4820 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 02:00 | Play 4849 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 01:42 | Play 4881 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 01:20 | Play 4906 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 01:16 | Play 4941 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 01:09 | Play 4971 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 01:06 | Play 5006 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 01:06 | Play 4994 ↗ | No estimate | — | Unsupported touchdown response phase |
| OT | 00:00 | Play 5021 ↗ | 0.0% | 0.0% | Recorded final outcome |
How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 208 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 208 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Loading fan feedback…
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
(1:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish).
Estimated chance to win moved 5.0 percentage points across this play.
(9:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone) [51-D.Walker]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 43 for 16 yards (22-K.Scott) [51-D.Walker].
(3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 15.4 percentage points across this play.
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 31 for 28 yards (38-K.Knowles). PENALTY on PIT-21-T.Homer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31.
Estimated chance to win moved 4.1 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
GAME
9-C.Boswell kicks 60 yards from PIT 35 to TB 5. 15-T.Johnson to TB 30 for 25 yards (40-D.Slaughter).
(14:55) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 33 for 3 yards (90-T.Watt; 56-A.Highsmith).
(14:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 31 for -2 yards (95-K.Benton).
(13:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 16 for -15 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
(12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to TB 44, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-84-B.Sharp.
(12:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
(12:44) 30-J.Warren left end to TB 42 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter).
(12:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
(11:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
(11:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton (95-K.Benton).
(11:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 17 for 5 yards (3-J.Brisker).
(11:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin.
(11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at TB 44 for 14 yards (29-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-40-D.Slaughter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46.
(10:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 80-D.Washington INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (3-R.Bain) [0-Y.Diaby] at PIT 39. 91-A.Robinson to PIT 39 for no gain (67-B.Hoffman).
(10:45) 7-B.Irving left tackle to PIT 33 for 6 yards (97-C.Heyward; 41-P.Wilson).
(10:06) 7-B.Irving right guard to PIT 27 for 6 yards (69-S.Joseph; 28-R.Spears-Jennings).
(9:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to PIT 32 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig, 97-C.Heyward).
(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka.
(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to PIT 25 for 7 yards (51-N.Herbig).
(7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 59 yards from TB 35 to PIT 6. 10-K.Wetjen to TB 41 for 53 yards (19-K.Johnson; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on PIT-55-C.Holcomb, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 35. Penalty on PIT-85-R.Tonyan, Offensive Holding, declined.
(7:43) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 22 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish).
(7:06) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 38 for 16 yards (45-J.Trotter).
(6:24) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 49 for 13 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone).
(5:38) 13-R.Dowdle left end to PIT 49 for -2 yards (25-J.Parrish).
(5:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to TB 46 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith; 22-K.Scott).
(4:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 42 for 4 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:46.
(3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 40 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby) [23-T.Smith].
(3:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 10-J.Daniels to TB 37 for -3 yards (95-K.Benton).
(3:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 41 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette).
(2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to PIT 46 for 13 yards (23-D.Everette; 3-J.Brisker).
(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 44 for -10 yards (51-N.Herbig).
(1:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to PIT 40 for 16 yards (23-D.Everette).
(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 5 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to PIT 24 for 11 yards (22-A.Samuel; 41-P.Wilson).
END QUARTER 1
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (23-D.Everette). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at PIT 24 - No Play.
(14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 64 yards from TB 35 to PIT 1. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 24 for 23 yards (51-D.Walker; 38-K.Knowles).
(14:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 30 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter; 27-Z.McCollum).
(14:01) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 32 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter).
(13:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren (52-C.Rozeboom).
(13:15) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 8 yards (21-T.Homer). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TB 13.
(13:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 20 for 13 yards (22-A.Samuel; 3-J.Brisker).
(12:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 21 for 1 yard (22-A.Samuel).
(12:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 27 for 6 yards (35-J.Dean).
(11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left [97-C.Heyward].
(11:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PIT 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
(11:30) 13-R.Dowdle left guard to PIT 34 for no gain (23-T.Smith; 51-D.Walker).
(10:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard pushed ob at PIT 48 for 14 yards (27-Z.McCollum) [98-A.Nelson].
(10:10) 13-R.Dowdle right guard to TB 37 for 15 yards (23-T.Smith; 5-I.Melifonwu).
(9:27) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 34 for 3 yards (52-C.Rozeboom; 95-E.Roberts).
(8:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 33 for 1 yard (23-T.Smith, 50-V.Vea).
(7:58) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 30 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott; 51-D.Walker).
(7:15) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
(7:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 41 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
(6:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PIT 42 for 17 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
(5:48) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to PIT 28 for 14 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
(5:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 29 for -1 yards (94-Y.Black).
(4:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.
Timeout #1 by TB at 04:17.
(4:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 2-E.Egbuka [6-P.Queen].
(4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 35.
(4:08) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 27 for -8 yards (22-K.Scott).
(3:26) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 30 for 3 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Timeout #2 by PIT at 02:43.
(2:43) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 22 for -8 yards (3-R.Bain).
(2:00) 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
(1:52) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play.
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at TB 20 for no gain (22-A.Samuel).
(1:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 26 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Timeout #3 by PIT at 01:43.
(1:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean).
(1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 27, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for -4 yards (19-K.Johnson).
(1:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 30 for 7 yards (23-T.Smith).
(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 34 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith).
(:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-R.Dowdle (97-A.Muhammad).
(:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 40 for 6 yards (25-J.Parrish).
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 48 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
(:16) (No Huddle) 8-A.Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Timeout #2 by TB at 00:15.
(:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 34 for 14 yards (22-K.Scott).
(:04) 8-A.Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock.
(:03) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
END QUARTER 2
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 55 yards from TB 35 to PIT 10. 31-L.Nichols to PIT 31 for 21 yards (51-D.Walker).
(14:55) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 33 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
(14:25) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren (45-J.Trotter) [0-Y.Diaby].
(14:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth.
(14:18) 19-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.
(14:04) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 16 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward).
(13:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 7-B.Irving to TB 17 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson).
(12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end pushed ob at TB 26 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen).
(12:16) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 84-B.Sharp to TB 47 for 21 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
(11:30) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 45 for -2 yards (33-J.Sawyer, 3-J.Brisker).
(11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 15-T.Johnson to PIT 49 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson).
(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 2-E.Egbuka to PIT 36 for 13 yards (22-A.Samuel; 28-R.Spears-Jennings).
(9:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka ran ob at PIT 29 for 7 yards (35-J.Dean).
(9:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to PIT 29 for no gain (90-T.Watt; 95-K.Benton).
(8:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to PIT 25 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker).
(7:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to PIT 18 for 7 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
(7:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to PIT 16 for 2 yards (96-G.Rubio; 41-P.Wilson).
(6:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to PIT 13 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
(5:57) 7-B.Irving right tackle to PIT 15 for -2 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 17-T.Hurst.
(5:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [3-J.Brisker]. PIT-3-J.Brisker was injured during the play.
(5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 56 yards from TB 35 to PIT 9. 31-L.Nichols to PIT 33 for 24 yards (41-K.Kieft).
(4:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 37 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter; 27-Z.McCollum).
(4:10) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 37 for no gain (45-J.Trotter; 3-R.Bain).
(3:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf.
(3:26) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 13 yards (51-N.Herbig).
(3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 27 for 2 yards (51-N.Herbig). ** Injury Update: PIT-3-J.Brisker has returned to the game.
(2:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin.
Timeout #1 by TB at 02:38.
(2:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 30 for 3 yards (56-A.Highsmith). ** Injury Update: PIT-3-J.Brisker has returned to the game. Penalty on TB-69-C.Mauch, Offensive Holding, declined.
(2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PIT 32, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
(2:14) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf.
(2:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to PIT 41 for 9 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
(1:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard pushed ob at TB 40 for 19 yards (25-J.Parrish).
(1:04) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 49 for -11 yards (51-D.Walker).
(:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 46 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter).
END QUARTER 3
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 29 for 17 yards (27-Z.McCollum; 5-I.Melifonwu).
(14:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard. PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 29 - No Play.
(14:33) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 5 for 9 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
(13:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to TB 2. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 27 yards (37-R.Nowakowski; 33-J.Sawyer).
(13:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right end to TB 32 for 3 yards (94-Y.Black).
(13:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.Hurst.
(13:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Everette [97-C.Heyward] at TB 45. 23-D.Everette ran ob at TB 45 for no gain.
(13:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at TB 28 for 17 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
(12:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 28 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum; 45-J.Trotter).
(11:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 28 for no gain (22-K.Scott; 91-A.Robinson).
(11:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to TB 12 for 16 yards (45-J.Trotter).
(10:12) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard.
(10:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at TB 18 for -6 yards (97-A.Muhammad).
(9:23) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at TB 2 for 16 yards (5-I.Melifonwu). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TB 18 - No Play.
(8:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 21 for 2 yards (51-D.Walker).
(8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 26 for 26 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 87-B.Smith).
(8:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 25 for -1 yards (5-J.Ramsey, 69-S.Joseph).
(7:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean).
(7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean).
(7:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
(7:03) (Shotgun) 13-R.Dowdle left guard to PIT 28 for 5 yards (92-E.Simmons; 0-Y.Diaby).
(6:19) 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 34 for 6 yards (3-R.Bain; 22-K.Scott).
(5:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 46 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
(5:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 49 for 3 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
(4:18) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to TB 49 for 2 yards (22-K.Scott).
(3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
(3:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish).
(3:29) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to TB 31 for 6 yards (23-T.Smith; 34-A.Anzalone).
(2:47) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at TB 40 for -9 yards (51-D.Walker).
(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to TB 0. 19-K.Johnson ran ob at TB 37 for 37 yards (9-C.Boswell).
(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst.
(1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).
(1:38) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Washington (27-Z.McCollum).
(1:33) 30-J.Warren left tackle to TB 1 for 2 yards (52-C.Rozeboom; 91-A.Robinson).
Timeout #2 by TB at 01:26.
(1:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish).
(1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35.
(1:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 43 for 22 yards (35-J.Dean; 41-P.Wilson).
(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Godwin.
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 48 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig).
Timeout #3 by TB at 00:40.
Timeout #1 by PIT at 00:40.
(:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean; 6-P.Queen).
Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:13.
(:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 31 for 28 yards (38-K.Knowles). PENALTY on PIT-21-T.Homer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31.
(:03) 8-A.Rodgers kneels to PIT 20 for -1 yards.
END QUARTER 4
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 60 yards from TB 35 to PIT 5. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 30 for 25 yards (29-M.Killebrew).
(9:55) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
(9:48) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 27 for -3 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
(9:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone) [51-D.Walker]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 43 for 16 yards (22-K.Scott) [51-D.Walker].
(8:44) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 47 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith; 91-A.Robinson).
(8:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 44 for 9 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).
(7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Warren to TB 32 for 12 yards (45-J.Trotter; 5-I.Melifonwu).
(6:52) 30-J.Warren up the middle to TB 27 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith; 52-C.Rozeboom).
(6:11) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left end to TB 20 for 7 yards (95-E.Roberts).
(5:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 15 for 5 yards (25-J.Parrish; 45-J.Trotter).
(4:47) (Shotgun) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 9 for 6 yards (50-V.Vea; 23-T.Smith).
(4:02) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 6 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea).
(3:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to TB 1. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 26 for 25 yards (31-L.Nichols; 44-C.Bruener).
(3:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 27 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker).
(2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.
(2:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Irving.
Timeout #1 by TB at 02:18.
(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end to TB 37 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 41 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker).
(1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to 50 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen; 5-J.Ramsey).
(1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin (35-J.Dean).
(1:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 7-B.Irving pushed ob at PIT 48 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson).
(1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Johnson (35-J.Dean).
Timeout #1 by PIT at 01:06.
(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 41 for -11 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
END GAME
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
-23.09 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3.01 points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7.1 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
2.17 points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-4.5 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-1.37 points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1.06 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1.93 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1.93 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
0.98 percentage points · experimental Experimental
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
1.44 percentage points · experimental Experimental
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1.93 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.04 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
1.78 percentage points · experimental Experimental
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.08 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
3.33 percentage points · experimental Experimental
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.12 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
1.93 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.08 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Updates automatically when source data changes.
This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bRetrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0
SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 4:45 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 3c84c49602f50c48383cc21a07b7ab68a4c2672242911bd6ac50fe6178ff98cfRetrieved Oct 19, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 b136d6f40fe3385dada564828f22ab3a1ea8058add6de18911ffee5d785a387bRetrieved Oct 19, 2026, 5:55 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 c971ee41de1ee339600a1fae3cf2b7571282677dd120602cd1efc1b3efb47e7aTraining window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 03d9e27beb399de575fc81c20d25b4a31e178efb221a9ff4457287d3027a0634
Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.