The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated
Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score
Fair · 1/5
Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: IND by 6.8; actual result: TEN by 6.
The 12.8-point difference was matched or exceeded in 102 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 37.82%
Penalty pattern
Fair · 1/5
IND minus TEN penalty-count difference: -3 versus -0.3 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 631 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread
Fair · 1/5
Recorded spread: IND by 6.5; actual result: TEN by 6. The difference was 12.5 points.
2,415 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 99.6%
Penalties extending one drive
Fair · 1/5
No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds
Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.
Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Tennessee Titans covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,415 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (33.2%).
Where this comparison comes from
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
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Notable plays 3+
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 12:37Recorded game event
Indianapolis Colts · Play 2271
(12:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on TEN awarded IND a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review.
Estimated chance to win moved 4.2 percentage points across this play.
(8:31) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Allen (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-25-Jo.Williams, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 20 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on TEN awarded IND a first down on third down; call correctness requires review.
Estimated chance to win moved 3.0 percentage points across this play.
(1:01) 20-T.Pollard left guard to IND 27 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 90-G.Stewart). Penalty on TEN, Illegal Shift, declined.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 169
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Q115:008-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 33 for 28 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.Play 40
8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 33 for 28 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.
CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 33Optional calculations for individual plays.+
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q405:26Penalty · TEN(5:26) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at TEN 17 - No Play.+
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 87.7 yards across both teams.
Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee
TEN
IND
Games
5
5
Wins–losses–ties
3–2–0
1–4–0
Team penalties per game
4 / 28.6 yd
3.4 / 29.2 yd
Referee comparison details
Home teams: 5.2 / 43.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 44.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Bill Vinovich; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline.
The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away.
Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome.
Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting.
Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled.
These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Tennessee TitansHistorical context
Winning-profile context
TEN won. Prior matching team-games: 105 wins, 691 losses, 0 ties among 796 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
Total offense below 200 yards
105 / 796prior matching team-games were wins
691 losses · 0 ties among the matches 14,512 team-games checked · 1999–2025 seasons
Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
About this chart
143 model estimates across 169 recorded game entries.
26 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (169 entries)
Indianapolis Colts chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
INDExtra point points above expectation0.08 points
Supported
HISTORICAL COMPARISON45th percentile
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
TENExtra point points above expectation0.48 points
Supported
HISTORICAL COMPARISON84th percentile
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Q105:43(5:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to IND 42 for 8 yards (37-A.Hooker; 29-T.Adams). TEN-26-M.Harris was injured during the play. The first down was assisted by replay.Play 527
(5:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to IND 42 for 8 yards (37-A.Hooker; 29-T.Adams). TEN-26-M.Harris was injured during the play. The first down was assisted by replay.
Q104:21(4:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 80-D.Burks pushed ob at TEN 16 for 36 yards (38-T.Burgess). ** Injury Update: TEN-26-M.Harris has returned to the game.Play 609
(4:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 80-D.Burks pushed ob at TEN 16 for 36 yards (38-T.Burgess). ** Injury Update: TEN-26-M.Harris has returned to the game.
Q102:57(2:57) 80-D.Burks right end to TEN 13 for 1 yard (18-C.Flott; 11-J.Johnson). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 14 - No Play.Play 659
(2:57) 80-D.Burks right end to TEN 13 for 1 yard (18-C.Flott; 11-J.Johnson). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 14 - No Play.
Q102:44(2:44) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 6 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.Play 692
(2:44) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 6 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q214:34(14:34) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 28-J.Taylor pushed ob at TEN 28 for 38 yards (37-A.Hooker). TEN-29-T.Adams was injured during the play.Play 959
(14:34) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 28-J.Taylor pushed ob at TEN 28 for 38 yards (37-A.Hooker). TEN-29-T.Adams was injured during the play.
Q212:32(12:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell (18-C.Flott). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play.Play 1037
(12:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell (18-C.Flott). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play.
Q208:31(8:31) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Allen (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-25-Jo.Williams, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 20 - No Play.Play 1351
(8:31) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Allen (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-25-Jo.Williams, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 20 - No Play.
Q202:00(2:00) 1-C.Ward pass deep right intended for 4-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Bynum [95-A.Adebawore] at IND 39. 0-C.Bynum to TEN 49 for 12 yards (20-T.Pollard).Play 1678
(2:00) 1-C.Ward pass deep right intended for 4-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Bynum [95-A.Adebawore] at IND 39. 0-C.Bynum to TEN 49 for 12 yards (20-T.Pollard).
Q200:118-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 31 for 28 yards (38-J.Owens). IND-85-A.Ogletree was injured during the play.Play 1858
8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 31 for 28 yards (38-J.Owens). IND-85-A.Ogletree was injured during the play.
Q315:006-J.Slye kicks 55 yards from TEN 35 to IND 10. 20-S.McGowan to IND 28 for 18 yards (56-T.Jones; 36-J.Chestnut). ** Injury Update: IND-85-A.Ogletree has returned to the game.Play 1931
6-J.Slye kicks 55 yards from TEN 35 to IND 10. 20-S.McGowan to IND 28 for 18 yards (56-T.Jones; 36-J.Chestnut). ** Injury Update: IND-85-A.Ogletree has returned to the game.
Q314:56(14:56) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 32 for 4 yards (98-J.Simmons; 53-A.Hill). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at IND 33.Play 1954
(14:56) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 32 for 4 yards (98-J.Simmons; 53-A.Hill). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at IND 33.
Q313:306-J.Slye kicks 43 yards from TEN 35 to IND 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on TEN-6-J.Slye, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at IND 40.Play 2162
6-J.Slye kicks 43 yards from TEN 35 to IND 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on TEN-6-J.Slye, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at IND 40.
Q312:37(12:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.Play 2271
(12:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.
Q309:00(9:00) 20-S.McGowan right tackle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (90-S.Thomas). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 31 - No Play.Play 2421
(9:00) 20-S.McGowan right tackle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (90-S.Thomas). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 31 - No Play.
Q307:07(7:07) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-W.Mallory INTERCEPTED by 18-C.Flott at TEN 11. 18-C.Flott to TEN 11 for no gain (86-W.Mallory).Play 2537
(7:07) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-W.Mallory INTERCEPTED by 18-C.Flott at TEN 11. 18-C.Flott to TEN 11 for no gain (86-W.Mallory).
Q411:35(11:35) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 43 for 4 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers). PENALTY on IND-60-T.Bortolini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.Play 3178
(11:35) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 43 for 4 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers). PENALTY on IND-60-T.Bortolini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.
Q410:25(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.Play 3284
(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q405:323-S.Shrader kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at IND 47 for 48 yards (3-S.Shrader). PENALTY on TEN-28-I.Oliver, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.Play 3589
3-S.Shrader kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at IND 47 for 48 yards (3-S.Shrader). PENALTY on TEN-28-I.Oliver, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
Q405:26(5:26) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at TEN 17 - No Play.Play 3638
(5:26) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at TEN 17 - No Play.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence IND
-3.12 pointsSupported
Actual state
Qtr
4
Down
1
Roof
open
Season
2026
Posteam
TEN
Ydstogo
10
Away team
TEN
Home team
IND
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
47
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
319
Half seconds remaining
319
Quarter seconds remaining
319
Defteam timeouts remaining
2
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Supported alternative
Qtr
4
Down
2
Roof
open
Season
2026
Posteam
TEN
Ydstogo
10
Away team
TEN
Home team
IND
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
83
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
319
Half seconds remaining
319
Quarter seconds remaining
319
Defteam timeouts remaining
2
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Assumptions
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:31Penalty · IND(8:31) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Allen (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-25-Jo.Williams, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 20 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q115:00Penalty · TEN8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 33 for 28 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:47Fourth down · TEN(10:47) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 47 for no gain (91-J.Tuimoloau). Penalty on TEN, Illegal Formation, declined.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:57Penalty · IND(2:57) 80-D.Burks right end to TEN 13 for 1 yard (18-C.Flott; 11-J.Johnson). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 14 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:32Penalty · IND(12:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell (18-C.Flott). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play.+
Q314:56Fumble · IND(14:56) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 32 for 4 yards (98-J.Simmons; 53-A.Hill). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at IND 33.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:30Penalty · IND6-J.Slye kicks 43 yards from TEN 35 to IND 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on TEN-6-J.Slye, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at IND 40.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:37Penalty · IND(12:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.+
Q309:00Penalty · IND(9:00) 20-S.McGowan right tackle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (90-S.Thomas). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 31 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q411:35Penalty · IND(11:35) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 43 for 4 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers). PENALTY on IND-60-T.Bortolini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:25Penalty · IND(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q405:32Penalty · TEN3-S.Shrader kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at IND 47 for 48 yards (3-S.Shrader). PENALTY on TEN-28-I.Oliver, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:01Fourth down · TEN(1:01) 20-T.Pollard left guard to IND 27 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 90-G.Stewart). Penalty on TEN, Illegal Shift, declined.+
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.